Friday, 16 March 2012

Globe & Mail: 想买房投资? 该找别的地方了。

最近房市负面新闻多到大傻每天随便一开Google News 财经版就多了几条关于警告房市泡沫破灭的新闻。


[Real estate as an investment? Look elsewhere]
G&M: Mar. 16, 2012 6:04PM
“…When I pull together the economic fundamentals, valuation and sentiment, real estate, as an investment, doesn’t look very attractive. The distribution of potential outcomes looks asymmetrical to me – limited upside and plenty of possible downside. But what really screams out at me is how many important factors are at extremes … bad extremes. One or two off-trend numbers can be explained away, but too many are jumping off the charts – price increases, mortgage rates, loan growth, consumer debt and home ownership levels.
To invest in an asset class that is illiquid, has high holding and transaction costs and involves large amounts of leverage, I want a significant margin of safety. Right now, there are more warning signs than guardrails.”

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