Thursday 30 May 2013

CMHC makes another change to its upper ranks

FP article: http://business.financialpost.com/2013/05/29/cmhc-makes-another-change-to-its-upper-ranks/?__lsa=2010-3c82

What prompted all these execs to leave?

- Lack of qualifications? As Richard Leblanc, a governance expert and associate professor at York University, said this month, "they are out of their league."
- Do they see something ominous looming?
- OSFI exerting pressure?



Saturday 18 May 2013

Richmond Seller to Lease-back - why?


$1,788,000 - 10531 Southdale Road, Richmond 

5 Bedrooms 5 Full Bathrooms 1 Half Bathroom 3,760 Sq Ft 8,226 Sq Ft Lot Built 2010

3 year old like new home by original owner...
Subject to a written argeement (THIS) Seller will lease back for full 2 years guaranteed $3300 per month and will pay full rent on completion or month to month your choice.

www.ecorealtyinc.ca/li...=260196480


Looks like This seller-lease-back deal provides a better ROI:
$1,350,000 – 5434 164th Street, Surrey
Seller is willing to lease back property for two years for $5,000 per month.
http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=260165414

Or This
$1,488,888 – 7181 264 Street, Langley
“Seller willing to lease back the whole facility and house for $7500 per month for 3 years with option to renew.”
http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=260226364

Beats $1,788,000 @ $3300/m rent in Richmond

May1-17 Stats

2013 vs 2012
Sales: 1720 vs 1698 (+1%)
Lists: 3522 vs 4032 (-12.6%)
Ratio: 48.8% vs 42.1%

Est Month-end Sales: 2850 vs 2853 (-)
Est Month-end Inventory: 17760 vs 17835(-0.4%)
Est Month-end MOI: 6.2-6.5 months  vs 6.3

This May, both Sales and MOI will reach worst or 2nd worst levels in over a decade.
Current MOI is at "Balanced-to-Buyer's Market"

May historical MOI (Months of Inventory):
2006: 2.3 
2007: 2.9 
2008: 5.4 
2009: 3.9 
2010: 5.5 
2011: 4.3 
2012: 6.3 
2013~ 6.3

May had been a "hotter" month than April.  Sales volume is similar to May 2012 so far.
This is not quite "good news" yet for RE industry, as May 2012 was the worst May in at least the past decade.

Inventory level has dropped to slightly lower than same time last year.
Some have argue that the amount of "motivated sellers" have probably increased.
If so, we can expect the price response in the upcoming REBGV/Teranet HPI numbers.

We should be able to expect MOI to trend up after May.  Second half of 2013 should be similar or slightly worse than 2012-H2 (due to tighter lending rules and stagnant job market in GVA).  We shall see soon enough.

今年5月房市较4月热络,而与去年同月的成交量亦不相上下 (这还不算是好消息,因为去年5月是过去10多年最差的5月)。
我们知道, 5月过后,滞销量会一路上升。 今年下半年的房市走向,预计将类似于2012年下半,可能稍加恶化 (因为房贷政策继续紧缩及大温就业市场不见好转)。 我们只能拭目以待。

预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比下跌。环比大致持平。

May historical Sales
2005: 4434 
2006: 4297 
2007: 4331 
2008: 3002 
2009: 3524 
2010: 3156 
2011: 3377 
2012: 2853
2013: 2850 (est)

Saturday 11 May 2013

May 1-10 Stats

May 1-10
2013 vs 2012
Sales: 995 vs 1098 (-9.4%)
Lists: 2228 vs 2774 (-19.7%)
Ratio: 45% vs 40%

Est Month-end Sales: 2570 vs 2853 (-10% YoY)
Est Month-end Inventory: 17900 vs 17835(+0.4%)
MOI :6.8-7.2 months vs 6.3 (May 2012)

We can expect the highest May MOI and lowest May Sales in recent history

Historical May MOI (Months of Inventory):
2006: 2.3 个月
2007: 2.9 个月
2008: 5.4 个月
2009: 3.9 个月
2010: 5.5 个月
2011: 4.3 个月
2012: 6.3 个月
2013~ 7.0个月

我们知道,滞销量大于7就是所谓"买方市场", 而过去十多年来,没有一年的5月是买方市场的。5月过后,滞销量会一路上升。 

预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比下跌。环比大致持平。

Historical May Sales
2005: 4434 
2006: 4297 
2007: 4331 
2008: 3002 
2009: 3524 
2010: 3156 
2011: 3377 
2012: 2853
2013: 2570 (est)

Wednesday 8 May 2013

Back in Action

Had been on vacation in remote places on Earth without internet connection for about 2 weeks, now about to be back in action!  maybe after a couple more days rest..