Saturday 20 April 2013

April 1-20 stats

4月1-20日 大温销售数据
2013 vs 2012
Sales: 1678 vs 2077 (-19%)
New List: 4068 vs 4509 (-10%)
Ratio: 41% vs 46%

Est Month end sales: 2450 vs 2799 (-13%)
Est Month end lists: 5700 vs 6056 (-6%)
*今年4月有21天工作日,去年只有19天。
Est Month end Inventory: 16700 vs 16538(+1%)
MOI:6.7-7.1个月  vs 5.9个月 

大温地区滞销量在4月底可望达到6.9个月,继续偏向买方市场。
今年4月滞销量可望成为过去10多年来最高, 为唯一处于买方市场的4月。
以下为过去几年4月滞销量 (Months of Inventory):

2006: 3.0 个月
2007: 3.5 个月
2008: 4.7 个月
2009: 4.8 个月
2010: 4.5 个月
2011: 4.4 个月
2012: 5.9 个月
2013~ 6.9个月

我们知道,滞销量大于7就是所谓"买方市场", 而过去十多年来,没有一年的3-4月是接近买方市场的。四月过后,滞销量会一路上升。 
温哥华若连3-4月都没法突破买方市场,我们可以预测2013年又会带来一整年的下跌。

今年4月成交/新上市比 及 成交量 可望成为有史以来最低。

预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比下跌。环比大致持平。

年份 成交 新上市 比例
year sales list sell/list 
20063345445275.1%
20073387558060.7%
20083218701045.9%
20092963464963.7%
20103512764845.9%
20113225584755.2%
20122799605646.2%
2013 2450 5700 43.0% (预测)

Thursday 18 April 2013

"Carney warns of quicker rate hike if household debt not tempered"


"Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney warned on Thursday that interest rates could rise sooner if the growth in household debt, which is related to the housing market, was not tempered.
“A concern of the Bank of Canada...has been the pace of growth of household debt, which has been related to dynamics in the housing market. And so a number of measures have been taken to slow that pace,” he told a Reuters-sponsored event, noting that the growth rate has fallen “quite nicely” to 3 per cent from 13 per cent."
- interesting how Carney still keeps the rate hike bias.  I wonder if the next BoC governor will keep this tone..
also read:
Coming mortgage growth slowdown to mirror trend in 1990s downturn, RBC says

Saturday 13 April 2013

April 1-12 Stats

2013 vs 2012
Sales: 1034 vs 1364 (-24%)
New List: 2676 vs 3130 (-15%)
Ratio: 38.6% vs 43.6%

Est Month-end Sales 2450 vs 2799 (-13%)
Est Month-end Lists: 5700 vs 6056 (-6%)
*Apr/13 has 21 business days. Apr/12 had 19 business days. 
Est Month-end Inventory: 16700 vs 16538(+1%)
MOI:6.7-7.1 vs 5.9 (Apr/12)

MOI is projected to increase to ~6.9 months by end of April
We can expect this April to have the highest MOI in the last decade.

April Historical Months of Inventory :

2006: 3.0 
2007: 3.5 
2008: 4.7 
2009: 4.8 
2010: 4.5 
2011: 4.4 
2012: 5.9 
2013~ 6.9

year sales list sell/list 
2006 3345 4452 75.1%
2007 3387 5580 60.7%
2008 3218 7010 45.9%
2009 2963 4649 63.7%
2010 3512 7648 45.9%
2011 3225 5847 55.2%
2012 2799 6056 46.2%
2013 2450 5700 43.0% (est)

Thursday 11 April 2013

New Home Price Index: BC worst in nation (again)

"Among the 21 metropolitan regions surveyed, 4 posted 12- month price declines in February. The largest annual decreases continued to be in British Columbia, where new housing prices in Victoria were down 2.2% and prices in Vancouver declined 0.6%

Vancouver and Victoria have not seen annual increases in new home prices since September 2011 and September 2008, respectively."

www.businessweek.com/n...eport-text

Monday 8 April 2013

April 1-5 Stats

2013 vs 2012
Sales: 400 vs 613 (-35%)
New List: 1240 vs 1348 (-8%)
Ratio: 32.3% vs 45.5%

Est Month-end Sales: 2400 vs 2799 (-14%)
Est Month-end Lists: 6000 vs 6056 (-1%)
*Apr/13 has 21 business days. Apr/12 had 19 business days. 
Est Month-end Inventory: 16700 vs 16538(+1%)
MOI:6.8-7.2  vs 5.9 (Apr/12)

MOI is projected to increase to ~7 months by end of April
We can expect this April to have the highest MOI in the last decade.

以下为过去几年4月滞销量 (Months of Inventory):
Past Aprils' MOI:
2006: 3.0 个月
2007: 3.5 个月
2008: 4.7 个月
2009: 4.8 个月
2010: 4.5 个月
2011: 4.4 个月
2012: 5.9 个月
2013~ 7.0个月

我们知道,滞销量大于7就是所谓"买方市场", 而过去十多年来,没有一年的3-4月是买方市场。四月过后,滞销量会一路上升。 
温哥华若连3-4月都没法突破买方市场,我们可以预测2013年又会带来一整年的下跌。

今年4月成交/新上市比 及 成交量 可望成为有史以来最低。

预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比下跌。环比大致持平。

year sales list sell/list 
2006 3345 4452 75.1%
2007 3387 5580 60.7%
2008 3218 7010 45.9%
2009 2963 4649 63.7%
2010 3512 7648 45.9%
2011 3225 5847 55.2%
2012 2799 6056 46.2%
2013 2400 6000 40.0% (Est)

Battle of Vancouver: SFH - Mar 2013



Mar 2013 SFH Battle Update:
* March Battle Map is essentially unchanged vs Feb 2013 for REBGV area.
* Due to time constraints ('tis Tax season) there will be no map update this month.
- Burnaby continued to fall futher into Bear Territory.
- The following Bull Territories are facing imminent defeat: Coquitlam, Langley & Cloverdale
- Coquitlam is where the Last Stand of REBGV Bull Forces takes place. The Bulls are down to the Very Last tank battalion. If they are defeated, the Bulls will be chased South of Fraser River, and possibly soon, South of the Border.

Last month's Battle Map:


Wednesday 3 April 2013

SFH March Sales '13 vs '12 vs '11 (by region)

分区 独立屋 成交量 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 三月

Van West:
’13: 151
’12: 152 (-1%)
’11: 279 (-46%)

Van East:
’13: 94
’12: 155 (-39%)
’11: 227 (-59%)

Richmond:
’13: 89
’12: 104 (-14%)
’11: 262 (-66%)

West Van:
’13: 58
’12: 78 (-26%)
’11: 152 (-62%)

Burnaby:
’13: 76
’12: 95 (-20%)
’11: 160 (-53%)

Coquitlam:
’13: 103
’12: 154 (-33%)
’11: 147 (-30%)

Mar/13 SFH Sales Stats by Region


3月份 2013 vs 2012 大温独立屋 分区 数据:

Richmond: HPI continues to trend down
Sales-14% YoY
Ratio: 40% vs 32%
HPI YoY % Change -8.4% (-9%,-6.3%,-6.5%,-4.2%,-4.0%,-4.2%,-3.7%) (last few months' YoY % change) 
 
Vancouver West: Sales flat YoY. Price down 9.1%.
Sales: -1%
Ratio: 55% vs 45%
HPI YoY % Change-9.1% (-9.2%,-7.5%,-5.5%,-8.4%,-7.7%,-6.5%,-3.7%,0%)

Vancouver East: What happened to the "Hot" Van East a year ago?
Sales-39%
Ratio: 45% vs 57%
HPI YoY % Change-2.6% (-2.7%,-0.5%,+0.2%,+0.5%,+1.9%,+3.2%,+4.8%,+5.5%)

Burnaby
Sales-20%
Ratio: 43% vs 45%
HPI YoY % Change-4.9% (-3.1%,-2.3%,+0.4%,+1.5%,+2.4%,+4.2%,+5.2%)

CoquitlamWhat happened to the "Hot" Coquitlam a year ago?
Sales-33%
Ratio: 51% vs 72%
HPI YoY % Change: +0.8% (+1.4%,+2.4%,+2.9%,+2.6%,+2.8%,+3.6%,+3.7%,+4.3%)

North Van:
Sales: -7%
Ratio: 60% vs 61%
HPI YoY % Change: -2.4% (-2.9%,-2.5%,-3.7%,+0.3%,+2.2%,+5.2%,+5.2%)
__________________

Mar 2013 REBGV Stats (PDF)

2013-03 大温房市官方数据 Mar REBGV Stats (PDF)

Historical Stats:
http://greaterfoolvancouver.blogspot.ca/2011/10/2011-rebgv-stats-pdf.html

Secondary-suite fees approved in White Rock



Secondary suite owners in White Rock will now have to pay an annual fee of $250 following the city’s approval of a secondary suite bylaw at Monday’s council meeting.

The fee will be applicable to all owners who have a secondary suite in their residence, not the tenants themselves.

Additionally, Kurylo noted that for those whose suites are rented out only part of the year, a pro-rate would be applied.

The fee will be part of homeowners’ payable taxes and will take effect in April, when it will be adopted by council.