Friday 31 August 2012

Aug 2012 month-end stats

8月1-31日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 1689 vs 2378 (下降29%)
新上市: 4109 vs 4685 (下降12%)
比例: 41% vs 51% (差10%)

总房源: 17650 (预计) vs 15437 (上升14%)
滞销量:10.4-10.8月 (预计) vs 6.5月

大温地区滞销量达到10.4-10.8个月,比上个月 (8.6个月滞销) 再增约两个月的滞销房源, 完全深入买方市场。

滞销量 历史纪录:

     2012   2011   2008
Sep ~12 ?    7.2   12.5
Aug  10.6    6.5   11.4
Jul   8.6    5.9    8.8
Jun   7.8    4.6    7.5
May   6.3    4.3    5.4
Apr   5.9    4.4    4.7
Mar   5.3    3.2    4.8
Feb   5.5    3.9    4.3
Jan   8.0    5.7    5.5

2012年直逼2008程度。


6 个月的房源 为 平衡市场
>7个月的房源 (买方市场), Teranet HPI 指标 房价会开始下滑
>10个月的房源,Teranet HPI 指标 房价在3个月内会下跌3-5%
>15个月的房源,Teranet HPI 指标 房价在3个月内会下跌10-12%

Thursday 30 August 2012

8月底 数据 Preview II

分区 preview:

独立屋:
1. 西温: 本月成交量可能不到30, 比7月少 40%, 比去年8月少 65%

2. 列治文: 本月成交量与7月相当,比去年8月少 40%。 超过20个月的房源滞销。房价已经下跌。地产局HPI指标价若不跌就有问题。

3. 温西: 本月成交量与7月相当,比去年8月少 37%。 空地价位已从最高点降了约10%。

4. 温东: 本月成交量可能不到80, 比7月少 30%, 比去年8月少 50%。 比2008年还低。

5. 本拿比: 去年的英雄变成今年的狗熊。本月成交量约40, 比7月少 30%, 比去年8月少 60%。 比2008年 (44)还低。

大温独立屋HPI指标价应会下跌,但均价会上升,因为有少数极高价位房成交。

Wednesday 29 August 2012

8月底 数据 Preview

8月只剩2天, 来作个本月数据 Preview:

以目前分区房源及最后这两周的销售速率看来,
大温地区8月份表现最差的市场为:

独立屋:
1. West Vancouver 西温: 28个月的房源
2. Richmond 列治文: 26个月的房源
3. Burnaby 本拿比: 16个月的房源
4. Vancouver West 温西: 14个月的房源

非独立屋 (包括城市屋):
1. Coquitlam 高贵林: 15个月的房源
2. Richmond 列治文: 15个月的房源
3. Vancouver West 温西: 9.4个月的房源
4. North Vancouver 北温: 9.4个月的房源

* 8月最后两周成交量较前两周明显下滑。
** 9月成交量会更低,而总房源会增加,造成房源滞销加剧。
***
6 个月的房源 为 平衡市场
>7个月的房源, Teranet HPI 指标 房价会开始下滑
>10个月的房源,Teranet HPI 指标 房价在3个月内会下跌3-5%
>15个月的房源,Teranet HPI 指标 房价在3个月内会下跌10-12%


source: http://housing-analysis.blogspot.ca/

Monday 27 August 2012

China stocks plummeting

上海股市继续下跌,已跌至2009年2月的程度。
从09年7月高点已跌了40%
中国政府有能力阻止硬着陆吗?


Saturday 25 August 2012

铁矿价格急跌, 中国经济持续放缓

铁矿价格继续急跌,已跌到2009价位。
GF: 中国经济持续放缓,"硬着陆"风险加大。
靠出口原料的国家,包括澳洲及加拿大,将受到大幅负面影响


Iron Ore Declines Below $100 as Growth Slows in China

By Phoebe Sedgman on August 24, 2012
Iron ore fell below $100 for the first time since 2009 on concern that rising stockpiles and slowing growth in China, the biggest buyer, will cut demand for the steel ingredient and hurt profits for miners such as Vale SA.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-24/iron-ore-drops-below-100-as-slowing-growth-in-china-cuts-demand

Wednesday 22 August 2012

Globe & Mail: What’s the rush, first-time buyers? Now's the time to rent

加国主流媒体最近愈来愈敢公开看跌房市了
Globe and Mail: "考虑买房的首次置业者们,别急,现在的时机应继续租房"

What’s the rush, first-time buyers? Now's the time to rent
Aug. 22 2012, 6:51 PM
...
There are financial reasons for slowing down the process of buying a first home, and there are practical reasons. Renting rather than owning makes you better able to move as required to build your career, it frees up money for travel and it insulates you from the home owner’s spending trap of buying furniture, landscaping, electronics and such.
Renting is not a waste of money. It’s what you sensibly do while waiting for the right time to buy a house. Right now, it makes sense to wait longer.

Tuesday 21 August 2012

Aug 1-21 Greater Vancouver sales down 27% YoY

8月1-21日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 1117 vs 1531 (下降27%)
新上市: 2871 vs 2964 (下降3%)
比例: 39% vs 52% (差13%)

Thursday 16 August 2012

The Province "Vancouver home resales plummeting" 大温二手屋市场"暴跌"


大温二手屋市场"暴跌"
GF:The Province 日报 现在用"暴跌"这词有点夸大嫌疑,再过几个月再说吧


Vancouver home resales plummeting

 

Average price down 12.4% to $667,462 over last year in July


AUGUST 16, 2012 
Vancouver's resale housing market plunged sharply in July compared with July 2011, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

A total of 2,135 homes changed hands in the Greater Vancouver Multiple Listing Service area in July, the CREA reports. That marked an 18.3-per-cent drop from 2,614 sales in July 2011.

The total value of homes sold fell even more sharply: Dollar volume of residential sales for July, at $1.42-billion, was down 28.4 per cent from $1.99-billion in July 2011, said the CREA.

For the first seven months of this year, to the end of July, total residential sales volume for Vancouver stood at $12.82-billion - down 26.1 per cent from $17.34-billion for the same period in 2011.

The bigger drops in dollar volumes are owed in part to falling home prices: The average price of a home in Greater Vancouver in July was $667,462 - down 12.4 per cent from $761,673 in July 2011.

Greater Vancouver's declines were among the most dramatic and dragged down national statistics. But home prices also continued to decline across the rest of the country in July and the pace of the depreciation is picking up, according to the CREA.


http://www.theprovince.com/business/Vancouver+home+resales+plummeting/7098423/story.html

Wednesday 15 August 2012

加国房市持续下滑,大温领跌


Canadian home prices falling steadily

 

 

Home prices continued to decline across the country in July and the pace of the depreciation is picking up, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.
The Ottawa-based group said the average price of a home sold last month was $353,147, a decline of 2% from a year. The year over year decline in June was 0.8%.
Recent changes to mortgage regulations were widely expected to temper sales and prices in Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver, and the data released today confirms that


Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/fp/Canadian+home+prices+falling+steadily/7094482/story.html#ixzz23g4HAg3b

The biggest risk to Canada is its debt (and debt-driven bubble)

GF 应邀开课, 以下为加国历年来过度依赖贷款的状况:

source: http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/

历年来须要CMHC保险的房贷 (即高杠杆房贷), 10年来快速增加,但2011-12政府开始严格紧缩


加拿大10年来GDP更加依赖消费者 consumer spending


加拿大房贷负债 与 其他(line of credit 等)负债与GDP 的比例


加拿大2011 vs 2002 [家庭负债量/收入] 比例


加拿大2011 vs 2002 家庭负债量 分类


source: http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/

Tuesday 14 August 2012

HELOC tightening, starting with RBC tomorrow

HELOC 房地产净资产抵押贷款开始收紧
RBC "Home line" line of credit 明日起 从80%借贷比例减至65%。
($500,000房,原本可借出最多$400,000 LOC, 明日起最多只能借出$325,000 LOC)

BMO "ReadiLine" line of credit 可能月底跟进。
其他各大银行可能在近期跟进。
这对加国零售业,就业率等等将造成负面影响。

Monday 13 August 2012

Thanks again for donations; China may further tighten RE policy

First of all, my sincere thanks to Mr/s X. Zhou of Vancouver for the repeat donations!
Your support, whether financial or non-financial, keeps me going and going!

Secondly:

中国政府可能在9月前实施进一步的打房政策

政策可能朝向增加地产交易税及地税。

China may impose new property curbs as early as August
Premier Wen Jiabao has said the government will remain steadfast on the property controls it began introducing in April 2010 to ensure housing remains affordable. 

China may set new property controls as early as this month after the central government’s inspection team returns to Beijing and the government has some room to impose new curbs if necessary, including raising the transaction tax on existing homes and expanding a property tax trial, the source said.
http://www.morningwhistle.com/html/2012/Company_Industry_0813/213478.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Lastly:

大温地区8月成交量继续放缓,大幅少于2011。 但放缓程度可能比不过08年8月 (除非8月剩下这3周平均每日销售少于66间房)。 今年8月成交量看来会是12年来第二低。

本月初有两间特高价位的单位成交,有可能把本月的均价拉高。  但中位价及指标价可能继续下跌。

本月的房源滞销率 (以月计)将继续恶化。更深入买方市场。

9月将见总房源重新爬升,卖方竞争加剧。
滞销将更加恶化,降价将更加明显。

Saturday 11 August 2012

Aug 1-10 Sales Stats vs 2011

8月1-10日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 581 vs 770 (下降25%)
新上市: 1448 vs 1476 (下降2%)
比例: 40% vs 52% (差12%)

Friday 10 August 2012

Vancouver unemployment rate creeping up

大温失业率持续上升,上升速率远超过全国平均

Vancouver unemployment rate:
Apr 2012: 6.2% (7.3% Canada)
May 2012: 6.4% (7.3% Canada)
Jun 2012: 6.4% (7.2% Canada)
July 2012: 6.8% (7.3% Canada)

Thursday 9 August 2012

列治文地产经纪预测Richmond独立屋3年内下跌30%

列治文地产经纪 James Wong 8月份发表的列治文地产展望:

The real estate market in Richmond deteriorated further at the end of July. Some home sellers were making drastic price reductions and generous concessions in selling their homes. More homes were now listed and sold at prices significantly below their city assessment values for 2012.
7月份列治文房市更加惨淡。有些卖方被迫大幅度降价。
愈来愈多单位的上市价及成交价已大幅低于2012政府估价。


The next few months are expected to remain lacklustre. The next few weeks and months would probably follow what happened in 2008. But, instead of a recovery like 2009, home sales could stayed low at current level with home prices declining. In Richmond, there is a high probability of a price decline for detached homes in excess of 30%, and attached homes in the range of 20% or more over the next 3 years.
未来几个月,列治文房市将继续退步, 大致上将相当于2008年的跌势,不过我们不会再见到2009年般的回升。
预测列治文独立屋在3年内会见到30%的跌幅,而非独立屋-20%。


GF 大致同意James Wong 的评论,但GF预测-30%可能在两年左右就可以达成。

http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?m=201208

Wednesday 8 August 2012

Tuesday 7 August 2012

本拿比中高端独立屋 市场极差

本拿比7月份卖出5栋大于$1.4M 的房。
今日,本拿比有154栋 大于$1.4M 的房待卖

房源滞销: 31个月。


Friday 3 August 2012

July 2012 Sales/Total Listings of SFH by region


Richmond SFH: 19.5 MOI (月滞销)
Van West SFH: 12.5 MOI (月滞销)
West Van SFH: 11.5 MOI (月滞销)
Burnaby SFH: 10.5 MOI (月滞销)
Coquitlam SFH: 8.2 MOI (月滞销)
Van East SFH: 6.7 MOI(月滞销)
Reminder: > 6 MOI is "buyer's market" 
(also called "drop your price or no one buys" market, or "no bidding war" market)

Thursday 2 August 2012

Single Family House sales decline ranking

独立屋 成交量 下跌最多的区域排名:

列治文 Richmond (跌 51%)
Jul/12 = 60 sales
Jul/11 = 123 sales

西温 West Van (跌 47%)
Jul/12 = 46 sales
Jul/11 = 86 sales

高贵林 Coquitlam (跌 43%)
Jul/12 = 67 sales
Jul/11 = 100 sales

温西 Van West (跌 40%)
Jul/12 = 83 sales
Jul/11 = 139 sales

本拿比 Burnaby (跌 39%)
Jul/12 = 58 sales
Jul/11 = 95 sales

北温 North Van (跌 35%)
Jul/12 = 60 sales
JUl/11 = 92 sales

温东 Van East (跌 24%)
Jul/12 = 109 sales
Jul/11 = 144 sales

July 2012 REBGV official stats

Link: 2012-7 大温房市官方数据 Jul REBGV Stats (PDF)

过去12年数据 For Stats Packages since 2000:  See here

Wednesday 1 August 2012

加拿大中小企业 商业信心跌至3年来最低

加拿大中小企业 商业信心跌至3年来最低,达到2009年7月等级


Canadian business confidence dips for fourth month, now at three-year low

" OTTAWA - A new survey suggests confidence among Canada's small and medium-sized business owners is at a three year low after dropping for the fourth consecutive month.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business says confidence in economic conditions among its members dropped 1.2 per cent nationally in July to 60.9.
The last time it was lower was in July of 2009, when it stood at 58.6.
CFIB chief economist Ted Mallett says the index’s current position in relation to gross domestic product puts it very close to the zero-growth mark, suggesting Canada’s economy is nearing a standstill.
。。。
Based on past results, the CFIB says index levels normally range between 65 and 75 when the economy is growing."

Greater Vancouver SFH Avg Price back to September 2010 levels

7月大温独立屋均价: 连跌5个月

2012-07 1041325
2012-06 1061067 (-1.9% 环比)
2012-05 1073311 
2012-04 1106683
2012-03 1155521
2012-02 1235244 (-15.7% vs 史上最高点)
...
2011-07 1133357 (-8.1% 同比)
...
2010-10 1058579
2010-09 1016324 (回到 2010年9月)