Thursday 28 February 2013

Feb 2013 Sales Stats and Summary

(Unofficial data)
Feb 2013 vs Feb 2012
Sales: 1800 vs 2545 (-29.3% YoY)
Lists: 4832 vs 5552 (-13% YoY)
Ratio: 37.3% vs 45.8%

Est Total Inventory: 14730 vs 14055 (+5% YoY)
MOI:8.1-8.3 vs 5.5 (Feb 2012)

February MOI (Months of Inventory) History:
2006: 2.7 
2007: 3.7 
2008: 4.3 
2009: 9.8 
2010: 4.6 
2011: 3.9 
2012: 5.5 
2013~ 8.2

* Note: Feb 2013 had 2 fewer business days than Feb 2012.

In over a decade, only 2009 had a February in buyer's market territory. We all know 2009 was the year of rebound from markedly lowered interest rate & globally coordinated stimulus / bank bail-outs, which is not going to be repeated in 2013 (discussed in previous posts).

MOI will continue to climb after March (which usually has similar MOI as Feb). If sales don't tick up by March, then we can almost safely expect a year-long continuous buyer's market for the rest of the year.

Feb 2013 Sales/Lists ratio may become the lowest in recent February history; sales will likely be 2nd lowest, second to 2009.

HPI benchmark price is expected to continue its decline, both MoM and YoY.


我们知道,滞销量大于7就是所谓"买方市场", 而过去十多年来的2月,只有2009年才是买方市场。三月过后,滞销量会一路上升。 
温哥华若连春季市场都没法突破买方市场,我们可以预测2013年又会带来一整年的下跌。
今年春节过年较以往晚了一两周。 未来2-4周的成交量是温哥华2013年房市最关键的数据。

今年2月成交/新上市比有机会成为十多年来最低 ,而 成交量可望成为十多年来第二低,仅次于2009年。

预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比环比双跌。

年份 成交 新上市 比例
year sales list sell/list 
2002 3008 4035 74.5%
2003 2760 3621 76.2%
2004 3066 3944 77.7%
2005 3068 4115 74.6%
2006 2941 4340 67.8%
2007 2859 4167 68.6%
2008 2676 5260 50.9%
2009 1480 3916 37.8%
2010 2473 4606 53.7%
2011 3097 5693 54.4%
2012 2545 5552 45.8%
2013 1800 4832 37.3% (est)

Wednesday 27 February 2013

加国企业投资2013年将恶化

Canada Business Investment Looks Unlikely to Take up Economic Slack
WSJ  February 27, 2013, 9:20 AM
"The Bank of Canada’s hopes for business investment to do the heavy lifting for the economy just got dented.

According to data released Wednesday from Statistics Canada, capital spending plans will probably grow at the slowest pace this year since the recession.

Total private and public sector investments will probably rise a meager 1.7% to 398.18 billion Canadian dollars ($387.94 billion), following a 7.2% gain in 2012, according to a survey by the statistics agency. Private investment is expected to edge up just 0.8%–the slowest in four years– while public spending will probably grow 5.0% to C$87.99 billion, from 4.9% previously.

Of the private-sector total, investment on housing will probably edge up 0.2%, the smallest gain in four yearsInvestments in the mining and oil and gas sector will probably fall 2.7%, the first decline since the recession, primarily from a 32.1% slump in metal ore mining. The survey polled 28,000 private and public organizations late last year and early this year to gauge their spending plans.

“Generally speaking it suggests that the mood among businesses is very grim, and it’s logical given all the risks out there in the world,” says Jimmy Jean, economic strategist at Desjardins Capital Markets in Montreal. In particular, the expected decline in spending plans in mining and oil and gas is “really depressing,” he said."
blogs.wsj.com/canadare...mic-slack/

Saturday 23 February 2013

Quantifying the “Chinese New Year Effect”


 Quantifying the “Chinese New Year Effect”
Avg-Sale/d  2011      2012       2013
CNY-1wk    142(100%)  82(100%)   86(100%)
CNY+1wk    133(94%)   98(120%)   104(121%)
CNY+2wk    171(120%)  131(160%)  102(119%)
CNY+3wk    162(114%)  115(140%)

- Avg CNY vacation in China ~ 2 weeks
- The usual story is, ‘investor’ got agent/wife to scout for potential properties, then Mr Investor arrives during CNY to finalize the deal.
- It’s believed that a sale may take 2 weeks to be registered on MLS as a “paulB sale”
- 2011 CNY = Feb 3; 2012 CNY = Jan 23; 2013 CNY = Feb 10
- Setting the avg daily sales of 1 week prior to CNY at 100%:
- It appears that peak sales were logged in the 2nd week post-CNY reaching 20%-60% above pre-CNY levels.
- In 2013, we only achieved +19% in the 2nd week post-CNY.
- fyi last year’s sales was flat during early Feb vs mid-late Feb.
Last Feb 3-9: Avg 131 sales/d (vs 2013: 81/d)
Last Feb 16-22: Avg 131 sales/d (vs 2013: 102/d)
- So there “could’ve” been a small CNY effect this year (+19%), but it’s nowhere as pronounced as last year (+60%).
- In the last 2 years, sales trended down at CNY+3 week.

Recent Vancouver Sales

2702-1009 Expo blvd
List 445k
Reduced 428k
Sold 415k
assessed 452k

1023 Expo blvd
List 739k
Sold 696k
Assessed 805k

1006-8 Smiths mews
List 748k
Reduced 738k
Sold 710k
Assessed 730k

905-33 Smiths mews
List 615k
Sold 578k
Assessed 574k

590 e 26 ave
5700 sq/ft lot!!!
List 1,099k
Sold 960k
Assessed 972k

1722 w 59 ave
List 1,838k
Reduced 1,775k
Sold 1,665k
Assessed 1,668k

4033 w 20 ave
List 1,668k
Reduced 1,598k
Sold 1,530k
Assessed 1,486k

4537 w 15 ave
List 1,698k
Sold 1,625k
Assessed 1,714k

Source: RET

Recent Richmond Sales

10419 Dennis cr
List 748k
Reduced 728,698k
Sold 675k
Assessed 736k

4451 Fisher Dr
List 838k
Sold 800k
Assessed 847k

3253 Georgia St
List 938k
Reduced 888k
Sold 880k
Assessed 900k

3511 broadway st
List 705k
Reduced 689k
Sold 668k
Assessed 715k

8891 Heather st
List 1,168k
Sold 1,007k
Assessed 1,027k

5755 Emerald pl
List 980k
Sold 1,050k
Assessed 1,090k

4640 Larkspur ave
List 1,048k
Sold 920k
Assessed 1,038k

8380 Garden city rd
List 888k
Sold 868k
Assessed 1,019k

10331 Lassam rd
List 1,118k
Sold 952k
Assessed 952k

5586 Colville rd
List 999k
Sold 925k
Assessed 1,200k

4331 Corless rd
List 1,138
Sold 1,030k
Assessed 1,139k

9831 Berry rd
List 819k
Sold 745k
Assessed 842k

5500 Woodwards rd
List 1,199k
Sold 1,140k
Assessed 1,180k

869# Elsmore rd
List 799k
Sold 750k
Assessed 868k

Source: RET

Sunday 17 February 2013

More adjustment to come in home prices: Carney

2月17日讯:央行总裁Carney公开表示,加国房市将再跌几年
Globe & Mail: 
More adjustment to come in home prices: Carney

Published Sunday, Feb. 17 2013

The correction underway in Canadian house prices is likely to persist for another two years, warns Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney.

“We’ve seen the adjustment in the housing market. We think there’s a bit more to come over the next couple of years,” Mr. Carney told CTV’s Question Period in an interview broadcast Sunday.

央行总裁 Mark Carney 周日表示, "我们已经见到了房市(下跌)的改变, 我们认为未来几年还会继续如此。"

Mr. Carney said rapidly rising prices experienced in Canada over the past decade are “certainly not normal” and Canadians shouldn’t count on home prices to be their main source of wealth gains.

Carney说,过去10年房市的迅速涨幅"当然不是正常的", "加拿大人不应该把房地产当作自己主要的财富来源。"

Real wealth is built through innovation, and it’s gained through hard work,” Mr. Carney explained in an interview taped before this weekend’s G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Moscow. “It’s not through some magical asset inflation.”

他还说 "真正的财富是经由创新及努力而获得的。 财富不会经由投资房地产,像变魔术般地冒出来了。"

Feb 1-15 Stats and Projection


2月1-15日 Greater Vancouver Stats
2013 vs 2012
Sales: 923 vs 1156 (-20%)
Lists: 2750 vs 2756 (no change)
Ratio: 33.5% vs 41.9%

Est Month-end Sales: 1934 vs 2545 (-24% YoY)
Est Month-end Lists: 5275 vs 5552 (-5% YoY)
Est Month-end Inventory: 14760 vs 14055 (+5% YoY)
Est Months of Inventory:7.4-7.8 months vs 5.5 (vs Feb/11)

大温地区滞销量在2月底可望达到7.6个月,继续处于买方市场。
通常每年2-3月为一整年中滞销量最低的月份,
以下为过去几年2月滞销量 (Months of Inventory History):

2006: 2.7 个月
2007: 3.7 个月
2008: 4.3 个月
2009: 9.8 个月
2010: 4.6 个月
2011: 3.9 个月
2012: 5.5 个月
2013~ 7.6个月

我们知道,滞销量大于7就是所谓"买方市场", 而过去十多年来,只有2009年的2月才是买方市场。三月过后,滞销量会一路上升。
温哥华若连春季市场都没法突破买方市场,我们可以预测2013年又会带来一整年的下跌。
今年春节过年较以往晚了一两周。 未来2-4周的成交量是温哥华2013年房市最关键的数据。

今年2月成交/新上市比有机会成为十多年来最低 ,而 成交量可望成为十多年来第二低,仅次于2009年。

预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比环比双跌。

年份 成交 新上市 比例
year sales list sell/list
2002 3008 4035 74.5%
2003 2760 3621 76.2%
2004 3066 3944 77.7%
2005 3068 4115 74.6%
2006 2941 4340 67.8%
2007 2859 4167 68.6%
2008 2676 5260 50.9%
2009 1480 3916 37.8%
2010 2473 4606 53.7%
2011 3097 5693 54.4%
2012 2545 5552 45.8%
2013 1934 5275 36.7% (Est)
__________________

Saturday 16 February 2013

Update from Richmond Realtor James Wong


- if Mr Wong is correct, all the CNY hype in media this year may be nothing but hot air.

“The Chinese New Year effect proved to be a non-event for 2013″
“While viewing activities were reported to have increased significantly, actual sales were hard to come by.”
“Further erosion in home prices in Richmond for 2013 can be expected as poor market sentiment is working against a housing market recovery in Richmond.”

Friday 15 February 2013

Vancouver rental market competition heats up (among landlords)

"好租客難尋 溫市房東優惠加碼"
Vancouver rental market competition heats up
Feb 13, 2013
“Increase in vacancy rate induces competition among property owners
As we predicted, poor sales -> reluctant landlords -> increased rental supply & vacancy rate -> downward pressure on rent.
Uh-oh.. double-whammy of a buyer’s market and a looming renter’s market.
Akin to a stock with P/E of 40 that’s dropping in both value and yield, costs 2%/year to maintain and another 5% to sell.

Bad Canadian Economic Data Starting to Pile Up; IMF warns Canada RE overvalued


加国经济指标负面新闻不断

February 15, 2013 WSJ
"A week ago, a trio of Canadian economic indicators–jobs, trade and housing starts –all came out on a single day and they all disappointed. BMO Capital Markets referred to the triple whammy as a day of “infamy” in Canadian economics."

"December’s manufacturing data just added to the sting. Traders expected a 0.8% decline in factory shipments from November. Instead, factory sales plunged 3.1% to 48.02 billion Canadian dollars (US$47.94 billion), marking the deepest one-month decline in 43 months, or since the midst of the great recession. "
http://blogs.wsj.com/canadarealtime/2013/02/15/bad-canadian-economic-data-starting-to-pile-up/

IMF 认为加拿大房地产总体来说高估10%, 而每个省份城市间有相当大的差距。 警告政府可能有需要采取进一步"打房"(缩紧房贷) 政策

IMF says Canada’s housing market still overvalued, warns more intervention may be needed
"Canadian housing prices were still about 10% overvalued at the end of 2012, the IMF said on Thursday, and it warned that authorities may have to intervene a fifth time in the mortgage market if personal debt levels rise further."

“Our analysis suggests an overvaluation in real terms of about 10% at a national level, although with significant variations across provinces,” said Roberto Cardarelli, IMF mission chief for Canada"

Sunday 10 February 2013

Published on Epoch Times newspaper for Chinese New Year weekend



Link to E-Paper

English Translation see here

* Hat tip to RE Analyst Ben Rabidoux for the graphs.  I did not expect them to include graphics which I linked to to appear in print!  A whole page was dedicated to this article!
* This was a free submission;  no remuneration was paid.

Saturday 9 February 2013

Feb 1-8 Sales Stats & Trend

2月1-8日 大温销售数据
2013 vs 2012
Sales: 509 vs 695 (-27%)
Lists: 1676 vs 1676 (no change)
Ratio: 30% vs 40%

Est Month-end Sales: 1934 vs 2545 (-24%)
Est Month-end Lists: 5275 vs 5552 (-5%)
Est month-end Inventory: 14760 vs 14055 (+5%)
Months of Inventory:7.4-7.8 vs 5.5 (Feb/12)

Greater Vancouver MOI will approach 7.6 by month-end, still within "buyer's market" territory。
February and March tends to have the lowest Months of Inventory in a year. 

Below are historical February MOI data (Months of Inventory):

2006: 2.7 
2007: 3.7 
2008: 4.3 
2009: 9.8 
2010: 4.6 
2011: 3.9 
2012: 5.5 
2013~ 7.6


In the last many years, only 2009 had a February in buyer's market territory. We all know 2009 was the year of rebound from markedly lowered interest rate & globally coordinated stimulus / bank bail-outs, which is not going to be repeated in 2013 (discussed in previous posts).

MOI will continue to climb after March (which usually has similar MOI as Feb). If sales don't tick up by end of this month (This year's Chinese New Year is 2 weeks later than last year - can be a factor in certain regional markets eg Richmond/Van W/W Van), then we can probably expect a year-long continuous buyer's market for the rest of the year.

Feb 2013 Sales/Lists ratio may become the lowest in recent February history; sales will likely be 2nd lowest, second to 2009.

HPI benchmark price is expected to continue its decline, both MoM and YoY.

年份 成交 新上市 比例
year sales list sell/list 
2002 3008 4035 74.5%
2003 2760 3621 76.2%
2004 3066 3944 77.7%
2005 3068 4115 74.6%
2006 2941 4340 67.8%
2007 2859 4167 68.6%
2008 2676 5260 50.9%
2009 1480 3916 37.8%
2010 2473 4606 53.7%
2011 3097 5693 54.4%
2012 2545 5552 45.8%
2013 1934 5275 36.7% (Est)

Wednesday 6 February 2013

My 2013 Vancouver RE Prediction (in English)


Just did a big piece on 2013 RE predictions on a couple Chinese forums and for my RE column. Also submitted to local newspaper where printing date is being arranged. Below is the English translation:
Bullish Factors for Vancouver RE:
1. Chinese economy/stock market showing some sign of ‘recovery’ in early 2013. Some ‘HAM’ may end up in Vancouver RE.
2. HST expires in April, good for new home market.
3. Interest rates remain at historical lows. (But also means can’t drop like 2008-09 again)
4. QE4 and coordinated monetary easing may offer short-term boost to stocks/economy. But its sustainability and how much flows into Vancouver RE is questionable.
Bearish Factors for Vancouver RE:
1. BC population growth continues to slow, worst in 8 years. Inter-provincial outflow accelerates.

2. Immigration policy continues to tighten in 2012-13. Immigrant investors decline; language proficiency more strict; crack-downs on Quebec/Maritimes provincial-nominees who move to GTA/GVA against agreement.

3. Household debt making new highs exceeding US peak levels.

4. BC household income increase sluggish. Poor job market outlook. Poor RE sales will drive down income of related fields (RE agents/mortgage brokers/lawyers/builders/hardware stores/banking etc). Because Vancouver economy is heavy on RE-related fields, the impact will be worse.

5. Baby boomers(1946-1964) 1st wave already reaching 67, becoming net-sellers of RE.

6. Canada’s “Population dependency index” (>65+<15)/(15-65) will rise rapidly in 2013-2015 and continue to rise for 15 years until stable. Taxes will rise, demand for RE will fall.

7. CMHC rules tightened in Jul 2012, effect will continue to be felt.

8. OSFI rules tightened in Nov 2012, more effect will be seen in 2013.

9. OSFI rules for mortgage insurers to be released in early 2013, will negatively impact RE (according to OSFI execs).

10. MSMs already widely reporting RE bubble and risk, negatively influencing market psychology.

11. Worldwide economy yet to exit from crisis. Euro/China/Japan/US all potential risks.

12. BC condo's depreciation report due by end of 2013, maintenance fees set to rise (need more contingency fund), bearish for condo strata.

13. GVA condo starts/completions continue to rise in 2012-13, worsening supply/demand imbalance.

14. Finance Minister Flaherty publicly states "pleased to see RE declining" and sees household debts as "greatest internal threat to Canadian economy". However, newest report in Feb/13 still shows increasing consumer debt (+6% YoY). Putting more pressure on government to further tighten lending.

15. BC general elections occurs in May, with NDP currently leading in polls. A NDP government is often viewed as negative for RE.

2013 Greater Vancouver RE predictions:

1. MLS HPI Benchmark Price (vs Dec 2012)
- Composite: Jun-end: -3.4%, Year-end -8%
- SFH: Jun-end: -3.6%Year-end -8.5%
- Condo: Jun-end: -3.1%Year-end -7.5%

2. Grater Vancouver SFH Avg Price (vs Dec 2012)
Jun-end: -2%Year-end -10%

3. SFH by Region: MLS HPI Benchmark Price (vs Dec 2012)
- 温西 Vancouver W:Jun-end: -3.3%,Year-end -10%
- 列治文 Richmond:Jun-end: -3.5%,Year-end -9%
- 温东 Vancouver E:Jun-end: -3.3%,Year-end -8.0%
- 南本拿比 Burnaby:Jun-end: -3.5%,Year-end -8.5%
- 高贵林 Coquitlam:Jun-end: -3.3%,Year-end -8.0%

Last few paragraphs were about why 2013 Won't be a repeat of 2009.
Basically talking about interest rates can't get much lower. The situation in 2008-09 where prime rate saw a decrease of 2.5% in half a year will not be repeated.
Also, CMHC now reaching 600B cap.  Can't repeat 2008 'bail-out' unless cap lifted again.