Saturday 9 February 2013

Feb 1-8 Sales Stats & Trend

2月1-8日 大温销售数据
2013 vs 2012
Sales: 509 vs 695 (-27%)
Lists: 1676 vs 1676 (no change)
Ratio: 30% vs 40%

Est Month-end Sales: 1934 vs 2545 (-24%)
Est Month-end Lists: 5275 vs 5552 (-5%)
Est month-end Inventory: 14760 vs 14055 (+5%)
Months of Inventory:7.4-7.8 vs 5.5 (Feb/12)

Greater Vancouver MOI will approach 7.6 by month-end, still within "buyer's market" territory。
February and March tends to have the lowest Months of Inventory in a year. 

Below are historical February MOI data (Months of Inventory):

2006: 2.7 
2007: 3.7 
2008: 4.3 
2009: 9.8 
2010: 4.6 
2011: 3.9 
2012: 5.5 
2013~ 7.6


In the last many years, only 2009 had a February in buyer's market territory. We all know 2009 was the year of rebound from markedly lowered interest rate & globally coordinated stimulus / bank bail-outs, which is not going to be repeated in 2013 (discussed in previous posts).

MOI will continue to climb after March (which usually has similar MOI as Feb). If sales don't tick up by end of this month (This year's Chinese New Year is 2 weeks later than last year - can be a factor in certain regional markets eg Richmond/Van W/W Van), then we can probably expect a year-long continuous buyer's market for the rest of the year.

Feb 2013 Sales/Lists ratio may become the lowest in recent February history; sales will likely be 2nd lowest, second to 2009.

HPI benchmark price is expected to continue its decline, both MoM and YoY.

年份 成交 新上市 比例
year sales list sell/list 
2002 3008 4035 74.5%
2003 2760 3621 76.2%
2004 3066 3944 77.7%
2005 3068 4115 74.6%
2006 2941 4340 67.8%
2007 2859 4167 68.6%
2008 2676 5260 50.9%
2009 1480 3916 37.8%
2010 2473 4606 53.7%
2011 3097 5693 54.4%
2012 2545 5552 45.8%
2013 1934 5275 36.7% (Est)

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