Saturday 23 February 2013

Quantifying the “Chinese New Year Effect”


 Quantifying the “Chinese New Year Effect”
Avg-Sale/d  2011      2012       2013
CNY-1wk    142(100%)  82(100%)   86(100%)
CNY+1wk    133(94%)   98(120%)   104(121%)
CNY+2wk    171(120%)  131(160%)  102(119%)
CNY+3wk    162(114%)  115(140%)

- Avg CNY vacation in China ~ 2 weeks
- The usual story is, ‘investor’ got agent/wife to scout for potential properties, then Mr Investor arrives during CNY to finalize the deal.
- It’s believed that a sale may take 2 weeks to be registered on MLS as a “paulB sale”
- 2011 CNY = Feb 3; 2012 CNY = Jan 23; 2013 CNY = Feb 10
- Setting the avg daily sales of 1 week prior to CNY at 100%:
- It appears that peak sales were logged in the 2nd week post-CNY reaching 20%-60% above pre-CNY levels.
- In 2013, we only achieved +19% in the 2nd week post-CNY.
- fyi last year’s sales was flat during early Feb vs mid-late Feb.
Last Feb 3-9: Avg 131 sales/d (vs 2013: 81/d)
Last Feb 16-22: Avg 131 sales/d (vs 2013: 102/d)
- So there “could’ve” been a small CNY effect this year (+19%), but it’s nowhere as pronounced as last year (+60%).
- In the last 2 years, sales trended down at CNY+3 week.

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