Saturday 28 April 2012

BUY NOW OR WAIT?

今天这一帖,我们来讨论 GF 心目中的第一个(长期自住)的独立房。

现在房价 = $1,000,000
现有首付 = $250,000 (= 25% down payment)
则 Mortgage = $750,000

若偿还期 25年,固定利率3.49%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $3741
若偿还期 20年,固定利率3.49%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $4336
若偿还期 15年,固定利率3.49%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $5349


若两年后才买房,而房价那时跌了15%,但利息上升了1%,而首付不变:
现在房价 = $850,000
现有首付 = $250,000 (= 29.4% down payment)
则 Mortgage = $600,000

若偿还期 25年,固定利率4.49%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $3318,比现在买房少付$423/月
若偿还期 20年,固定利率4.49%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $3779,比现在买房少付$557/月
若偿还期 15年,固定利率4.49%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $4574,比现在买房少付$775/月


若两年后才买房,而房价那时跌了15%,但利息上升了1.5%,而首付不变:
现在房价 = $850,000
现有首付 = $250,000 (= 29.4% down payment)
则 Mortgage = $600,000

若偿还期 25年,固定利率4.99%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $3486,比现在买房少付$255/月
若偿还期 20年,固定利率4.99%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $3940,比现在买房少付$396/月
若偿还期 15年,固定利率4.99%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $4726,比现在买房少付$623/月


若两年后才买房,而房价那时跌了15%,但利息上升了1%,而首付增加了$50k (存了两年的剩余收入):

现在房价 = $850,000
现有首付 = $300,000 (= 35.3% down payment)
则 Mortgage = $550,000

若偿还期 25年,固定利率4.49%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $3041,比现在买房少付$700/月
若偿还期 20年,固定利率4.49%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $3464,比现在买房少付$872/月
若偿还期 15年,固定利率4.49%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $4193,比现在买房少付$1156/月


若两年后才买房,而房价那时跌了15%,但利息上升了1.5%,而首付增加了$50k (存了两年的剩余收入):
现在房价 = $850,000
现有首付 = $300,000 (= 35.3% down payment)
则 Mortgage = $550,000

若偿还期 25年,固定利率4.99%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $3196,比现在买房少付$545/月
若偿还期 20年,固定利率4.99%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $3611,比现在买房少付$725/月
若偿还期 15年,固定利率4.99%, 则每月 Mortgage  = $4332,比现在买房少付$1017/月


结论:  
若两年后房价(保守估计)下跌15%
, 但利率上涨... (贷款20年)
1. 利率上涨1.0% →  月付减少 $557/月 (-13%)
2. 利率上涨1.5% →  月付减少 $396/月 (-9%)

但是,两年后GF多存了$50,000 作为首付 (保守估计)
1. 利率上涨1.0% →  月付减少 $872/月 (-20%)
2. 利率上涨1.5% →  月付减少 $725/月 (-17%)

Friday 27 April 2012

4月1-27日大温地区销售数据




2012 vs 2011 四月同期
成交 2682 vs 3120 (下降14%)
新上市 5637 vs 5629 (持平)
比例 47.6% vs 55.5% (差8%)

预计今年4月底总成交量为: 2810
比 2012-3月: 2874
= 下跌 ~2%

比 2011-4月: 3225
= 下跌 ~13%


成交量为十年来4月份最低

年份 成交 新上市 比例
20012253355663.4%
20023785521572.6%
20033095413974.8%
20044106566572.5%
20054043573170.5%
20063345445275.1%
20073490572461.0%
20083218701045.9%
20092963464963.7%
20103512764845.9%
20113225584755.2%
20122810585048.0% (预测)

财长考虑废除CMHC 房贷保险


时间不明,但若执行,则银行及贷款机构将失去政府(及纳税人) 100%的担保, 而把风险转移到银行/贷款机构上。 房贷要更难拿了,而加拿大10年来兴旺的房地产业,将面临更重大的打击。


CMHC could be pulled out of mortgage insurance business, Flaherty says
Apr 27, 2012 – 6:33 PM ET

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty would consider taking Canada Mortgage Housing Corp.out of the mortgage default insurance business he told the National Post’s editorial board.
“Over time, I don’t think it’s essential that a government financial institution provide mortgage insurance in Canada. I think what’s key is that mortgage insurance is available at a reasonable cost in Canada. I think there is a role to regulate but whether we, the Canadian people, have to be the owners and shareholders of a financial institution to do this is a question. I don’t think it’s essential in the long run.”
He offered no timetable on when the government could get out of mortgage default insurance business, just offering it up as a possibility. “We have a list of Crowns, Crown agencies that are being reviewed,” said Mr. Flaherty.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/27/cmhc-could-be-pulled-out-of-mortgage-insurance-business-flaherty-says/

西班牙国债遭 S&P 降2级

欧洲经济风暴慢慢步向高峰...


European shares retreat after S&P's Spain downgrade

The sell-off came after S&P, citing expectations Spain's finances will deteriorate even more than previously thought due to the recession and the country's ailing banking sector, downgraded the country to BBB-plus from A and put a negative outlook on the credit.

The rating agency also said the situation could deteriorate further unless strong measures were taken at a European level.

"This downgrade shows that governments in Europe are still struggling to get their budget in balance. We are probably going to see more downgrades from other rating agencies," Philippe Gijsels, head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets in Brussels, said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/27/markets-europe-stocks-open-idUSP6E8E502A20120427

大温各区 "回收房源" ("recycled listings") 数据

大家都知道房子若卖不出去,经纪常用的技巧是把房子从MLS拿下,过一阵子以低一点的价位重新上市。 以New Listing 的姿态吸引买方.

以下是上周大温各区 "回收房源" ("recycled listings")的数目,及占新房源的比例。

比例较高的区域,大致上显现出买方市场所在

AreaNew ListingsRecycledPct
Squamish21628.6%
West Vancouver551425.5%
Vancouver West2756824.7%
Richmond2204922.3%
White Rock1292620.2%
Chilliwack20420.0%
Coquitlam1072018.7%
Port Moody27518.5%
Pitt Meadows17317.6%
Burnaby1713017.5%
Maple Ridge731115.1%
Port Coquitlam40615.0%
Abbotsford1151714.8%
Mission43614.0%
Cloverdale71912.7%
Langley1521912.5%
Vancouver East1441812.5%
Surrey1642012.2%
New Westminster61711.5%
Whistler Pemberton27311.1%
Sunshine Coast49510.2%
North Delta3438.8%
North Surrey10887.4%
North Vancouver10887.4%

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/2012/04/25/recycling-april-25-2012/

Thursday 26 April 2012

Ontario 安省信贷评比被降级

预算将继续大砍。 就业率不看好。加拿大经济龙头的未来堪忧。

Moody's downgrades Ontario credit rating
Apr 26, 2012 

Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded its credit rating for Ontario.
The credit rating agency announced Thursday that it downgraded the rating to AA2 with stable outlook, down from AA1 with negative outlook.
Moody’s said the government's targets for reining in spending appear "particularly ambitious" and there is a risk the province will not get rid of its $15-billion deficit as scheduled, five years from now.
“The downgrade of Ontario's rating reflects the growing debt burden and the risks surrounding the province achieving its medium-term fiscal plan given the subdued growth outlook, extended timeframe back to balance and ambitious expenditure targets,” said Jennifer Wong, the lead analyst for Ontario and an assistant vice-president at Moody’s.
It also said that there was little chance of the rating improving any time soon, though Moody's did say that if the Ontario government can meet its targets and reduce the provincial deficit that “could put upward pressure on the rating.”

Confirmed:CMHC 将纳入OSFI管辖,同时将步出covered bonds business



OSFI to supervise CMHC
Apr 26, 2012 – 10:46 AM ET
OTTAWA  — Finance Minister Jim Flaherty confirmed Thursday the government will tighten regulations for Canada’s housing agency in a bid to help limit the risk to financial institutions amid a red-hot housing market.
Mr. Flaherty said the new measures will “enhance the government and oversight framework for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.”
“These proposed changes are part of the government’s continuous efforts to strengthen the housing finance system,” he said. “They will contribute to the stability of the housing market and benefit all Canadians.”
Mr. Flaherty said the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions will be responsible for reviewing and monitoring CMHC’s commercial activities.
“The bill also gets the CMHC out of the covered bonds business.”

就如GF以前预测的,政府这次下定更大的决心打击房市
本来无直接关系的CMHC及OSFI, 将统合由OSFI管理。
主管OSFI 的 Julie Dickson 近日来发表了一系列的缩紧房贷/房屋净资产抵押贷款等政策 ( http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/05/osfi-adds-new-mortgage-rule-for-bankers/ )。若CMHC转由OSFI辖管,那支持加拿大房市的"easy money" 将面临史上未见的紧缩。

财长未改房贷首付/偿还期; 但更严厉的紧缩政策已经由银行/贷款公司推动
GF 在2月预测过房贷/HELOC 贷款政策将在3月紧缩
如今,虽然可能性最大的没有在今日实现。
但是属于财长直辖管理的CMHC (加拿大房贷公司) 及 OSFI (联邦金融管理单位) 双双在3月下旬发表超乎意料的 大幅度限制政府及银行房贷/HELOC贷款的政策。

看来财长聪明地把打房政策经由贷款机构间接实施 (而非直接明显限制民众的首付或偿还期等小伎俩). 如此一来,财长不必须承担 "造成房市破灭的人"的责任, 还可以把责任推卸到借出贷款的银行等金融机构。

大家可以在未来数月听到越来越多人贷不到钱的新闻。
http://greaterfoolvancouver.blogspot.ca/2012/03/blog-post_7632.html

 写道:
GF认为,3月份财长Flaherty 将实施至少一项"打房"政策。
GF在此,以可能性大小排名,列出最可能实施的政策:

可能性最大
1. 再次缩短最长偿还期,从30年降至25年
2. 缩紧自雇/Stated Income 者的房贷+/-HELOC 借款额度 <- 预测正确,银行已开始严格化贷款申请。 实际法令正在去制定中。
3. 再次减少Re-finance 时可借的数量,从85%降至80% (借此控制HELOC贷款量)
4. 要求银行提高自身的资本要求,提高流动资金,及减低杠杆比率 (这可能部分已经暗中实施) (<- 已经/正在实现)
5. 升高最低首付,从5% 增至7.5% 或 10%
6. 调高CMHC房贷保险的保费 (<- 极可能实现,法规细节尚未制定)
7. 设置CMHC政府担保房贷的上限,譬如高过$800k 的房屋,政府不提供CMHC保险 (转由银行自行承担)
8. 强迫银行承担一部分贷款风险 (譬如令银行承担5%的房贷损失,而CMHC承担95% ) <- 预测正确,经由CMHC政府担保的房贷量将在2012年减少近50%,而未来4年减少>75%, 等于政府开始要求银行自行扛起剩余的风险
可能性最小

Wednesday 25 April 2012

Rent vs Buy 租房 vs 买房 (一)


今天来谈谈一个常被讨论的问题," Rent or Buy? "
我们会举几个不同情况的例子来讨论这个问题。

今天这一帖,我们来讨论 GF 大傻自身的住处。

地点:  较新 高层公寓,20+楼层 sub-penthouse, 700+ sq ft, 1Br+den,朝北山景,离 sky train 500米。

租金: $1350 (将在今秋与房东杀价,目标 <$1300)

估价: $390,000
假设 Down payment 25% = $97,500
则 Mortgage = $292,500
若偿还期 25年,固定利率3.49%, 则每月 Mortgage payment  = 1459
若偿还期 20年,固定利率3.49%, 则每月 Mortgage payment  = 1691
若偿还期 15年,固定利率3.49%, 则每月 Mortgage payment  = 2086

假设偿还期20年,每月 Mortgage $1691
每月 Condo fee = $195
每月 Property tax + Insurance = $150
每月 平均维修费用 = $15 (几个月来,GF 的房东请人维修的花费预计$100)
总共每月 = $2051


假设GF打算延迟两年买房,则总租金为:
$1325 x 24月 = $31,800

若GF现在买这个单位, 则两年后总养房费 (不包括首付)为:
$2051 x 24月 = $49,224

而这 $49,224 里头,利息占了 $19,580, 而得到的 Equity 为$21,006
等于$49,224 的养房费中,有$28,218 为付给银行/政府/Strata/维修 的花费
(所以,剩下的房贷为 $292,500-$21,006 = $271,494
若房价两年后不变, 则房屋净值为 $390,000-$271,494= $118,506
首付+养房费 = $146,724, 比房屋净值高$28,218)


但是,GF 若两年不买房,而把原本作首付的 $97,500 谨慎,多样化投资。
假设投资回报率为4%/年, 则$97,500 可赚取 $3,900 x2年 = $7,800

所以GF若租房两年,则将损失 $31,800 - $7,800 = $24,000
- 同时,GF投资的那$97,500 (再加利润) 随时可以兑现,拿回手上。

若GF买房两年,则将损失$28,218  (若房价不变)
- 这还不算入任何Strata 修理的另外加收费用,及若condo 大修的special assessment (很容易每屋主就上千,甚至上万)
- 同时,大温Strata 新规勒令Condo 单位必须定时发表"折旧报告" (mandatory depreciation report), 将使Strata 必须明显上涨 Condo Fee, 以提升紧急需要基金 (contingency fund) 等开销。

- 这也不算上两年后若要卖房的费用 (5%)

但是,GF预测此公寓单位在两年后将下跌15-20%

假设房价下跌 15%
市价: $331,500
剩余房贷: $271,494
净值: $60,006
首付+养房费: $146,724
损失: $86,718
若GF买房两年,而房价下跌 15%,则GF将至少损失$86,716
比起租房两年,若GF现在买房 会多亏损$62,716

若GF两年后见状况不妙,房价已下跌 15%,想要卖房
则将加上卖房费用 (经纪费/律师费/税务等), 假设约 5% x $331,500 = $16,575
若GF买房两年,而房价下跌 15%,想要卖房,则GF将至少损失$103,291
比起租房两年,GF会多亏损$79,291

$79,291
> 一台 Mercedes E350 


> 一台 Mercedes C63AMG 


= 一台 BMW M3


> 大温平均家庭一年收入(税前)

Coquitlam 独立屋均价,中位数价下跌



3/25-4/24, 2012 vs 2/25-3/24, 2012
Coquitlam 中位数价比上个月下跌$32,000 (-4.2%)
Coquitlam 均价比上个月下跌$25,000 (-3.2%)



* "Sold" 数据不准确,得等月底官方数据。

Vancouver Price Drop 网站 - 跟踪大温地区降价趋势


Region# Listings5%+ Drop10%+ Drop5%+ Drop%10%+ Drop%
West Vancouver627661510.5%2.4%
Chilliwack1531429.2%1.3%
Sunshine Coast109484327.7%2.9%
Vancouver West3184229457.2%1.4%
Whistler Pemberton81858177.1%2.1%
White Rock142896146.7%1.0%
Richmond2463150196.1%0.8%
New Westminster6053656.0%0.8%
Mission71541115.7%1.5%
Squamish3932245.6%1.0%
Vancouver East126171115.6%0.9%
Abbotsford142476195.3%1.3%
North Vancouver92349115.3%1.2%
Hope and Region174925.2%1.1%
Burnaby16658795.2%0.5%
Pitt Meadows155724.5%1.3%
Port Coquitlam4161834.3%0.7%
North Surrey105042114.0%1.0%
Maple Ridge10194063.9%0.6%
Coquitlam10194053.9%0.5%
Langley14445093.5%0.6%
North Delta254903.5%0.0%
Tsawwassen180603.3%0.0%
Cloverdale6432043.1%0.6%
Kent161503.1%0.0%
Ladner130403.1%0.0%
Port Moody3611123.0%0.6%
Surrey15542731.7%0.2%