温哥华西区 3月不振

温哥华西区 独立屋 均价,中位数价下跌
2/24-3/25, 2012 vs 1/24-2/25, 2012
Vancouver West 中位数价比上个月下跌$318,000 (-13.7%)
Vancouver West 均价比上个月下跌$488,000 (-17.3%)



* "Sold" 数据不准确,得等月底官方数据。

3月底销售数据

3月底 (2012) 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 2934
新上市单位: 5763
售出/新上市 比例: 50.9%

****************************
3月底 (2011) 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 4080
新上市单位: 6797
售出/新上市 比例: 60.0%


目前看来,成交量较去年同期减少28%, 为10年来第二低。
新上市量较去年同期减少15%, 略高过10年平均值。
成交/新上市 比例较去年降低9%,为10年来第二低

GF预测四,五月 成交量及 成交/新上市 比例将持续低于往年,甚至创造史上新低。
我们已经在三月下旬见到十年来最高的春季总房源。
总房源将在四月继续创造新高
__________________________________
历年来3月大温地区官方销售记录:
年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2002 3392 5168 65.6%
2003 3304 4272 77.3%
2004 4371 5709 76.6%
2005 3938 5083 77.5%
2006 4033 5767 69.9%
2007 3582 5456 65.7%
2008 2997 5674 52.8%
2009 2265 4385 51.7%
2010 3137 7004 44.8%
2011 4080 6797 60.0%
2012 2934 5763 51% <- 预测

财长未改房贷首付/偿还期； 但更严厉的紧缩政策已经由银行/贷款公司推动

GF 在2月预测过房贷/HELOC 贷款政策将在3月紧缩
如今,虽然可能性最大的没有在今日实现。
但是属于财长直辖管理的CMHC (加拿大房贷公司) 及 OSFI (联邦金融管理单位) 双双在3月下旬发表超乎意料的 大幅度限制政府及银行房贷/HELOC贷款的政策。

看来财长聪明地把打房政策经由贷款机构间接实施 (而非直接明显限制民众的首付或偿还期等小伎俩). 如此一来,财长不必须承担 "造成房市破灭的人"的责任, 还可以把责任推卸到借出贷款的银行等金融机构。

大家可以在未来数月听到越来越多人贷不到钱的新闻。

写道:

GF认为,3月份财长Flaherty 将实施至少一项"打房"政策。 GF在此,以可能性大小排名,列出最可能实施的政策: 可能性最大 1. 再次缩短最长偿还期,从30年降至25年 2. 缩紧自雇/Stated Income 者的房贷+/-HELOC 借款额度 <- 预测正确,银行已开始严格化贷款申请。 实际法令正在去制定中。 3. 再次减少Re-finance 时可借的数量,从85%降至80% (借此控制HELOC贷款量) 4. 要求银行提高自身的资本要求,提高流动资金,及减低杠杆比率 (这可能部分已经暗中实施) (<- 已经/正在实现) 5. 升高最低首付,从5% 增至7.5% 或 10% 6. 调高CMHC房贷保险的保费 (<- 极可能实现,法规细节尚未制定) 7. 设置CMHC政府担保房贷的上限,譬如高过$800k 的房屋,政府不提供CMHC保险 (转由银行自行承担) 8. 强迫银行承担一部分贷款风险 (譬如令银行承担5%的房贷损失,而CMHC承担95% ) <- 预测正确,经由CMHC政府担保的房贷量将在2012年减少近50%,而未来4年减少>75%, 等于政府开始要求银行自行扛起剩余的风险 可能性最小

大温总房源继续升高。

Richmond 独立屋 均价，中位数价下跌

2/24-3/25, 2012  vs  1/24-2/25, 2012
Richmond 中位数价比上个月下跌$118,000 (-11.4%)
Richmond 均价比上个月下跌$37,000 (-3.2%)

 

* "Sold" 数据不准确，得等月底官方数据。

澳洲经济，银行，失业率，政治，房地产 堪忧

澳洲经济继续不景气，25%的中小企业已有困难还债缴税。
Queensland 银行承受大幅房贷拖欠的损失。
执政党在最近的选举遭遇大败
失业率将大幅提高
房地产及零售业面临惨痛打击

Australia Roundup: 25% of Small to Medium-Sized Businesses Struggle to Pay Bills; Bank of Queensland Hit by Surge of Real Estate Losses; Labor Party Routed in Elections
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...to-medium.html

美国房价继续下跌，还不见底

最新美国房价 (未调整通膨的数据)
- 已跌至2003年初。


最新美国房价 (调整通膨后的数据)

- 已跌至1998年底。

还未见底......

Burnaby 独立屋 均价，中位数价下跌

2/24-3/25, 2012  vs  1/24-2/25, 2012
Burnaby 中位数价比上个月下跌$41,000 (-4.5%)
Burnaby 均价比上个月下跌$15,000 (-1.6%)

 

* "Sold" 数据不准确，得等月底官方数据。

TD & RBC 跟进加息。 固定利率+浮动利率

4年固定: 3.49% 5年固定: 5.44% 5年浮动: P+0.2% Royal Bank raises mortgage rates on both fixed and variable types The Toronto-based lender said its posted five-year closed mortgage rates will move up 20 basis points to 5.44 per cent effective Mar. 29, while bank's special fixed rate offer on a four-year fixed rate will add 50 basis points to 3.49. Meanwhile, the posted five-year variable rate — which rises or falls along with the bank's prime lending rate — will rise 10 basis points to prime plus 0.20 percentage points. www.canadianbusiness.c...able-types TD 跟进，在3月29日将加息 Fixed Rate Posted Rates* To: Change: 5-year closed 5.44% +0.20% Variable Posted Rates** 5-year closed TD Mortgage Prime+0.20% +0.10% Special Fixed Rate Offers* 4-year fixed closed special*** 3.49% +0.50% http://td.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1551

年轻人现在该继续租房还是欠债买房？

Globe & Mail 今日新闻:
年轻人在现今低利率的时代，还是应继续租房，存钱。 不要因为现在的低利率扛起大量贷款。

Rent or take on massive mortgage debt?

Globe and Mail Update
Published Monday, Mar. 26, 2012 5:20AM EDT

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/lets-talk-investing/video-rent-or-take-on-massive-mortgage-debt/article2230603/

3月下旬 Update

3月1-23日大温地区销售数据

2012 vs 2011 三月同期
成交 2298 vs 3138 (下跌27%)
新上市 4439 vs 5164 (下跌14%)
比例 52% vs 61% (差9%)


总房源

通膨连续上升3个月。若继续央行将面对升息压力。

Total CPI:
2012-02: 2.6
2012-01: 2.5
2011-12: 2.3

Core CPI:

2012-02: 2.3
2012-01: 2.1
2011-12: 1.9

央行的宗旨为把Total CPI控制在接近2 (1-3).  而央行也参考Core CPI (去除了价位波动较大项目的CPI)。   目前Core CPI 2.3 为3年来最高。

若CPI持续上升，央行将受到更大压力加息(prime rate)
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/03/23/canada-february-inflation.html
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/price-indexes/cpi/

加拿大主要银行开始对公寓建商缩紧借贷 - Bloomberg news

银行近日来已需要建商提高预售屋销售量才能批准借贷。

"许多银行已经缩紧贷款了" 一位建商说。 

Canada Banks Tighten Condo Lending Amid Bubble Fear: Mortgages
Mar 22, 2012 9:01 PM PT

Canada’s biggest banks are tightening lending standards for condominium builders at the urging of regulators, requesting higher pre-sales and deposits as policy makers warn the Toronto and Vancouver markets are overheating.

Some banks have been asking construction firms to put more equity into new projects in recent weeks, according to developers.Lenders have also been raising the percentage of condo units that must be pre-sold and are demanding higher deposits as conditions for financing, they said.
“Several of the banks have tightened up” after the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions “told the banks to be a little bit more careful on who they are lending to and how they are lending,” said Barry Fenton, chief executive officer of Toronto-based Lanterra Developments, whose condos include WaterParkCity and Ice Condominiums at York Centre.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...mortgages.html

CMHC担保房贷将从今年起缩紧50%-75%。 Easy Money 时代已告结束。

以下为GF在今日中午在另一个论坛发表的评论， 说明CMHC加拿大房贷公司将在未来4年以极大幅度下调所背书的房贷数量，以避免突破法定的 $600Billion 上限 。 比起2008-2011年，CMHC在2012年将减少所保险的房屋贷款by 50%， 而在2013-2016年， 每年CMHC背书的房贷将减少75%。

Easy Money 时代已告结束。政府看来将加快步出10年来不断金援房市的一贯作风。

GF @ 1pm PST posted: 

So CMHC is predicting a growth of its portfolio from $557B in 2012 to $588B in 2016.

in 2008 CMHC’s cap was increased to $450B
by 2011 year-end it was $541B, an increase of ~30B/year
now it’s forecasting 2012 to be $557B, an increase of $16B/year
from 2012-2016, it’s forecasting a rise to 588B, or $7.75B/year

From 30B/year to 7.75B/year. This rationing’s gonna hurt. real. bad.

Globe & Mail 在6小时后发表同样新闻

Canada’s mortgage body moves to slow booming housing market

Mar. 22, 2012 10:09PM

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has signalled it will dramatically curtail its growth in the mortgage market in the coming years in an effort to cool Canada’s sizzling housing sector.

Documents released by the Crown corporation this week show CMHC expects to increase mortgage insurance over the next few years at only a fraction of the pace seen recently.

CMHC is in many ways the engine of the entire housing market. It backstops risk in the sector by providing insurance on mortgages and helps banks keep loans flowing while holding down the cost of financing a new home. By forcing CMHC to shrink the growth of its insurance portfolio, Ottawa is placing a damper on the flow of mortgage credit in the years ahead.

CMHC’s insurance portfolio has soared by hundreds of billions of dollars in recent years, and is expected to be well beyond $500-billion this year.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/canadas-mortgage-body-moves-to-slow-booming-housing-market/article2378722/ 

财长Flaherty 今日几句话

财长Flaherty 今日表示，有意"让房市自己调整"， 话中之意是可能不会在下周发表明显的打房政策 (例如 减少最高偿还期至25年/ 提高首付等）。

大傻认为，财长已经，或是计划以较不明显的方法影响房市。

第一.   财长旗下的 OSFI 联邦金融管理局 几天前发表的房贷法规草稿 已列出一些强烈的打房政策  （这法规影响的是 非政府担保之贷款，包括 HELOC)

第二.  CMHC 联邦房贷公司 逼近$600 Billion 担保上限。 若Flaherty 不大幅上调限度，将造成借贷单位无法像往常分散风险至CMHC/纳税人，造成房贷缩紧的后果。

第三，银行极可能已经在面对必须提升自身资产比例的要求， 造成数家房贷公司及银行 (eg. CIBC Firstline, TD, HSBC)在近几个月内已退出高风险房贷生意。

On the issue of Canada’s housing market, Mr. Flaherty made comments Thursday that suggest he is not preparing new measures in the budget to cool prices.
Mr. Flaherty said he would like to see if the market will “correct itself,” and noted that there are some signs that this is currently taking place. 

Some Canadian banks are calling on Ottawa to intervene – either by lowering the maximum amortization period for insured mortgages or by raising the minimum required down payment.
Mr. Flaherty said he finds those suggestions “a bit much” given that the banks ultimately decide whether to approve a mortgage.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/federal-budget-will-include-only-modest-spending-cuts-flaherty-says/article2377866/ 

HSBC 中止所有加拿大消费者信贷产品，裁员500

近几个月来加拿大银行，房贷，及保险业连连遭遇裁员，中止营业的厄运。

CIBC 旗下的Firstline Mortgage 也正在停业/找寻新买主。

GF: 莫非加拿大的银行与金融机构已预见加国房贷市场暗淡的未来?

HSBC Canada exits consumer finance, lays off 500

TORONTO, March 21 - The Canadian arm of HSBC Bank will wind down its consumer finance business and lay off about 500 employees after failing to find a buyer for the unit. 

HSBC Canada's consumer finance business is the legacy business of Household International, which the bank acquired in 2003 and has already wound down in the United States and United Kingdom. In Canada, it operates under the HSBC Finance banner on a standalone basis from HSBC Bank branches.

HSBC said the unit will shut offices and cease taking loan applications as soon as practical, but that the business will continue to service and collect its existing receivable loans.

素里恶劣房东破天荒遭罚款 $115,000

素里一不顾房客安全的恶劣房东 (英语称: "Slumlord" = Slum Landlord)  Mr. Gurdyal Singh Sahota 及其公司 Waterford Developments 成为BC租房法规 (Residential Tenancy Act) 立法后第一个被重罚者。 他因多次不理会屋顶漏水的问题被检举。  BC住宅管理局长Rich Coleman 表示，这将有杀鸡儆猴的作用， 让其他的恶劣房东了解若不遵守 BC租房法规会得到的后果。

Surrey landlord slapped with $115,000 penalty

MARCH 21, 2012 2:03 AM 

Rotting walls, a collapsed ceiling and decayed deck railings at a Surrey residential building have earned a notorious B.C. land-lord the first administrative penalty under the Residential Tenancy Act.

Gurdyal Singh Sahota and his company, Waterford Developments, have been handed a $115,000 penalty for deliberately failing to abide by a May 2011 agreement to address a chronically unattended leaking roof that affected up to six units at Kwantlen Park Manor in North Surrey.

The penalty includes a maximum one-time fine of $5,000, plus $500 for each of the 220 days of non-compliance since a June 2011 deadline.

Rich Coleman, the B.C. minister responsible for housing, said administrative penalties are only considered for "serious, deliberate contraventions of the act."

"It should send a message to these landlords - and there's not many of them - who decide they're going to flout certain responsibilities they have to their tenancy agreement with these tenants," Coleman said Tuesday.

http://www.theprovince.com/news/Surrey+landlord+slapped+with+penalty/6334958/story.html

多伦多高层公寓成交量较去年大跌59%

今早 Financial Post 头条。
从年初算起，大多伦多高层公寓成交量从3348跌到1633

Toronto high-rise condo sales slide 59% from last year
Mar 20, 2012 – 10:26 AM ET

Builders call it “stability” in the housing market but sales in Toronto’s high-rise market, which includes the volatile condominium sector, saw a 59% decline in sales from a year ago.

“After a record-breaking sales year in 2011, it would appear that the GTA new housing market is easing back into stability in early 2012,” says the Building Industry and Land Development Association in a release.

How much is it easing? For the first two months of the year RealNet Canada Inc. there were 1,633 high-rise sales compared to 3,348 a year earlier.

Prices also seem to have stabilized in the condo sector with the price per square foot up only 2% in February from a year earlier. Low-rise prices were up 10% compared to a year earlier which BILD blamed on government regulatory issues and charges.

http://business.financialpost.com/20...rom-last-year/

大傻正确预测2.99%固定利率提早结束

GF预测正确: 今天 Scotiabank 成为第一间中止2.99%利率的银行。
预记本周还会有几家跟进。

5年 Bond rate 继续飚升

大傻在3月14日已讨论过固定利率与5 year bond rate 的话题。那时GCAN5YR:IND = 1.653。 而如今过了5天，GCAN5YR:IND 升至1.74, 创造了8个月来最高点。

大傻预测，若5 year bond rate 明日继续上冲 1.75，至少有一家银行在未来两天内会提早中止2.99% 4-5年固定利率deal.

超低固定利率可能无法持久固定利率是由5 year bond rate 决定的。
虽然1月下旬5 year bond rate 下降 (造成BMO率先开始2.99%固定利率), 但是看来现在5 year bond rate 已经开始悄悄回升。
若继续下去,银行现在的2.99%固定利率将在短期内回升。
大傻评论 ->若利率回升，加上政府若在3月底发表新一轮缩紧房贷政策，将造成购房者资金减少，进而造成房市在晚春/夏季进一步下跌。
聪明(或是有时间等)的人，会不顾当下低利率的诱惑，继续储存首付(或退休金).  等到房贷难借时，就是市场上与你竞争的买房者减少时，也就是房价进一步下跌的时候。

ING 今日停止"低证明"贷款计划

ING贷款公司今日起中止了"Low Doc" 低证明贷款计划。 此计划原是针对自雇或无收入证明的贷款申请者而成立的。

ING副总Martin Beaudry 说，ING要按照"金融稳定协会" (Financial Stability Board, 为世界性跨国机构)的指示，开始严格化贷款申请规则。  他还指出，ING近来受到非常多的 Low Doc 低证明贷款申请，而这类房贷需要ING提供太多的资产来担保，造成公司太大负担。

大傻翻译: 又一个房贷公司退出了高风险借贷服务。银行们开始发现及试着面对加拿大房地产泡沫的危机。房贷继续慢慢缩紧。 而若财长Flaherty 在月底发表打房政策， 及

联邦金融管理单位发表 房贷管理条款，则会代表宽松房贷政策easy money时代的结束。

March 19, 2012

ING Shelves its “Low Doc” Mortgage

“ING Direct is cancelling its “Express Income Qualifier” (EIQ) mortgage.

It’s the latest bank to pull back on conventional non-income qualified mortgages. This is a trend that became more pronounced earlier this year as word broke that regulators were becoming increasingly concerned with these products.

It was getting a “disproportionate amount of applications<” for this product.

Non-income qualifying mortgages are more capital-intensive and ING was unable to bulk insure all these files to keep funding costs down.”

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/03/ing-shelves-its-low-doc-mortgage.html

联邦金融管理单位发表 新房贷管理条款

加拿大联邦金融管理单位 OSFI 今日发表新的房贷管理条款之草稿。
目标在于提高借贷机构的自制力，同时提高贷款 (包括HELOC房屋净资产抵押贷款) 的难度。

大傻分析: 银行与其它贷款单位 (mortgage brokers) 近日来开始采取以缩紧房贷的行动来降低借款风险。 而财长又极有可能在3月底发表下一轮(第4轮)缩紧房贷政策。

政府现在看来开始要正视房地产泡沫的危机， 会不会太迟了 (泡沫已经太大) ， 我们只能拭目以待。

OSFI releases Draft guidelines seek to improve lending practices 


OTTAWA, March 19 (Reuters) – Canada’s banking regulator wants lenders to be more transparent about their mortgage businesses as it seeks to minimize the risk to the economy from record-high levels of household debt.

Draft guidelines from the regulator released on Monday called for increased disclosure by banks on their exposure to certain mortgage products and markets, enhanced risk-management practices and treating home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) the same way as mortgages.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/19/canada-economy-mortgages-idUSL1E8EJBL820120319

OSFI is issuing the draft guideline to allow industry and other vested parties to provide input on best practices for mortgage lending. The guideline does not affect the rules for insured mortgages, which are set by the government. 

http://world.einnews.com/pr_news/86464833/osfi-releases-draft-guidance-on-mortgage-underwriting-principles

华尔街日报: 澳大利亚楼市出现不稳迹象

就如大傻在3月6日 及 3月8日 讨论过的话题: 

3/6 澳洲GDP成长减半，即将进入衰退期?

3/8 中国经济衰退将导致澳洲房市"严重下跌"

华尔街日报中文版在周五发表以下看跌澳洲房市的分析。

大傻继续认为，加拿大经济与房市走向与澳洲将极其相似。

加拿大，澳洲同有英语系国家最后破灭的房市泡沫
双方都是依赖能源／矿物等commodities 原料输出
双方都在近年来增加对中国出口的依赖

而澳洲，已经撑不住了 

华尔街日报中文版2012年03月16日11:50
国际金融危机最严重时期，澳大利亚房地产市场表现良好，所以业主们避开了影响。但这场盛宴似乎即将散场。 

虽有丰富的资源，澳大利亚经济却在步履踉跄。公司利润降了，失业率更高了。去年四季度大宗商品价格下跌导致国内生产总值(GDP)的增速低于预期。
....  如果经济受到冲击，比如中国传来负面信号，给大宗商品价格造成不利影响，那么借款人可能就会承受压力。 

2008年，也就是上一次楼市形势显得不妙的时候，政府对首次购房人加大补助，提高了需求。这些鼓励措施已经逐渐取消，不过要是楼市进一步下滑的话，政府有可能再推这些措施。那样的话，房屋销量可能会勉强过得去，但这也只是一个短期的解决之道。
http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20120316/hrd115249.asp?source=UpFeature 

大傻3天前预测了固定房贷利率走向， 今日著名房贷网站做出相同预测

大傻对于固定房贷利息将在近期内提前上升的预测 (1.超低固定利率可能无法持久, 2,
5 year bond rate 继续上升), 过了几天后著名加拿大房贷网站 Canadian Mortgage Trends 提出同样预测。

"超低固定房贷将可能提前结束"

March 17, 2012

Yield Spike Puts Mortgage Specials at Risk

The cost of funding fixed-rate mortgages surged this week as bond yields escalated.

The 5-year yield is up over 30 basis points in 10 days, and 45 bps since the end of January.

That means lenders could start pulling some fixed-rate specials and/or increasing rates in general, as early as next week.

Some have already lifted rates in the last 48 hours and we hear at least one major bank will be cancelling its 2.99% 4-year offer on Tuesday.

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/03/yield-spike-puts-mortgage-specials-at-risk.html#more

3月1-16日大温地区销售数据

2012 vs 2011
成交 1535 vs 2161 (下跌29%)
新上市 3192 vs 3861 (下跌17%)
比例 48% vs 56% (差8%)


过去10年3月份销售数据:

March
            成交    l新上市    比例
2002    3392    5168    65.6%
2003    3304    4272    77.3%
2004    4371    5709    76.6%
2005    3938    5083    77.5%
2006    4033    5767    69.9%
2007    3582    5456    65.7%
2008    2997    5674    52.8%
2009    2265    4385    51.7%
2010    3137    7004    44.8%
2011    4080    6797    60.0%
2012   2940   5430    54%   <-预测

5 year bond rate 继续上升

5 year bond rate 继续上升, 极低固定利率可能提前上涨。 哪个银行会先行动呢?

(见大傻3月14日帖 超低固定利率可能无法持久)

固定利率是由5 year bond rate 决定的。
虽然1月下旬5 year bond rate 下降 (造成BMO率先开始2.99%固定利率), 但是看来现在5 year bond rate 已经开始悄悄回升。
若继续下去,银行现在的2.99%固定利率将在短期内回升。
大傻评论 ->若利率回升，加上政府若在3月底发表新一轮缩紧房贷政策，将造成购房者资金减少，进而造成房市在晚春/夏季进一步下跌。

聪明(或是有时间等)的人，会不顾当下低利率的诱惑，继续储存首付(或退休金).  等到房贷难借时，就是市场上与你竞争的买房者减少时，也就是房价进一步下跌的时候。 

www.bloomberg.com/quot...IND/chart/

Globe & Mail: 想买房投资？ 该找别的地方了。

最近房市负面新闻多到大傻每天随便一开Google News 财经版就多了几条关于警告房市泡沫破灭的新闻。

加拿大权威性报纸今日再次报导，
若想要投资，不要挑选房市。
现在所有供给，需求等因素全强烈指向泡沫破灭。

[Real estate as an investment? Look elsewhere]
G&M: Mar. 16, 2012 6:04PM

“…When I pull together the economic fundamentals, valuation and sentiment, real estate, as an investment, doesn’t look very attractive. The distribution of potential outcomes looks asymmetrical to me – limited upside and plenty of possible downside. But what really screams out at me is how many important factors are at extremes … bad extremes. One or two off-trend numbers can be explained away, but too many are jumping off the charts – price increases, mortgage rates, loan growth, consumer debt and home ownership levels.

To invest in an asset class that is illiquid, has high holding and transaction costs and involves large amounts of leverage, I want a significant margin of safety. Right now, there are more warning signs than guardrails.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/the-buy-side/real-estate-as-an-investment-look-elsewhere/article2372118/

TD Bank: 建议政府制定贷款新政; 大温地区房价高估10-15%

 TD Bank 发表报告， 房市泡沫将为加拿大经济带来严重风险

建议政府制定贷款新政， 以控制房价

大温地区房价目前被高估至少10-15% .

大傻认为，TD低估了可能跌幅.

但他们身为银行，借贷者， 对于房市过于乐观是可以理解的  ; )

[Housing bubble a danger to economy, TD says]
Bank warns household debt also a hazard
Mar 16, 2012 12:24 PM
Overvalued housing markets in several Canadian cities and high household debt poses a “clear and present danger” to Canada’s economy, TD Bank warned in a report Friday.
The report flags Vancouver as the market with the greatest risk of a housing price correction, because of an influx of foreign buyers, likely in the order of 10 to 15 per cent.

The study by the bank’s chief economist, Craig Alexander, proposes the government introduce measures to keep personal debt levels from rising further.

The answer is not, Alexander says, for banks to agree to lend less.
“To do so would be collusion,” he said, “and it is illegal.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/story/2012/03/16/td-overvaluation-debt.html

TD Bank 建议政府及早打房

TD Bank 将在明日(3月16日)发表一份报告，建议联邦政府尽快制定下一轮房贷缩紧政策， 包括以下4点建议
1. 缩短最长偿还期至25年
2. 增加最低首付至7%
3. 要求所有申请房贷者必须证明在利息升至5.5%的情况下还能还债。
4. 要求所有HELOC申请者能证明能在20年内还完债务 - 进而减少申请者能借出的HELOC房屋净资产抵押贷款。 

* TD会建议以上4点建议不同时，或太接近实施。

完全是大傻意料中的打房项目 - 见2月底大傻作的预测:
http://greaterfoolvancouver.blogspot.com/2012/02/heloc.html
http://forum.iask.ca/showthread.php?p=7830350#post7830350

GF认为，3月份财长Flaherty 将实施至少一项打房政策。
GF在此，以可能性大小排名，列出最可能实施的政策:


可能性最大
1. 再次缩短最长偿还期，从30年降至25年
2. 缩紧自雇/Stated Income 者的房贷+/-HELOC 借款额度
3. 再次减少Re-finance 时可借的数量，从85%降至80% （借此控制HELOC贷款量）
4. 要求银行提高自身的资本要求，提高流动资金，及减低杠杆比率 (这可能部分已经暗中实施)
5. 升高最低首付，从5% 增至7.5% 或 10%
6. 调高CMHC房贷保险的保费
7. 设置CMHC政府担保房贷的上限，譬如高过$800k 的房屋，政府不提供CMHC保险 (转由银行自行承担)
8. 强迫银行承担一部分贷款风险 (譬如令银行承担5%的房贷损失，而CMHC承担95% ) 
可能性最小 

引用:

Ottawa urged to take concrete steps to limit growing consumer debt 3/15/2012 Mr. Alexander, chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, says the government, which has tightened mortgage rules three times since 2008, should step into the housing market again and gradually roll out a series of steps to ensure the risk doesn’t get worse. “We want to ensure that the imbalance we have doesn’t get any bigger, so the economy over the medium term can weather the inevitable future adjustment in interest rates,” Mr. Alexander said in an interview. “If we incrementally lean against credit growth while we have low rates, it will be a better outcome for the economy.” In a report he will release Friday, Mr. Alexander recommends four possible measures: 1. the maximum amortization period for government-insured mortgages should be cut to 25 years 2. anyone applying for a mortgage should be required to show they could still afford it if the rate rose to 5.5 per cent 3. lenders should assess the ability of anyone applying for a home-equity line of credit to pay it off within 20 years. 4. minimum down payment for a government-insured mortgage should be raised to 7 per cent from the current 5 per cent, Mr. Alexander said. However, he is careful to note that the government should not attempt to implement all of the changes at once, or even closely spaced, for fear of causing the very economic damage that policy makers are trying to prevent. http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/...le2369949.html

又一个在主流媒体发表的泡沫警告

皇后大学经济学教授3月15日在Globe & Mail 发表，加拿大人应该开始进入"危机应对模式"， 减少负债。  他也强烈建议联邦政府尽快发表缩紧房贷政策，包括减少最长偿还期至25年，及增加最低首付至10%。

[Strong medicine urged for a fevered real estate market]
3/15/2012
“Canadians ought to put themselves in risk management mode,” urges Queen’s University finance professor Louis Gagnon.

The professor is adding his voice to the chorus urging the federal government to make it tougher for marginal buyers to get into the Canadian housing market.

At the same time, people across the country should be lightening their heavy debt loads to avoid a shock when interest rates rise.

Prof. Gagnon is calling on the government to tighten the rules further in order to relieve the upward pressure on real estate prices and prevent a bubble. Which is not to say we’re not already in a bubble

Prof. Gagnon would like to see the maximum mortgage amortization period knocked back to 25 years from the current 30. The minimum down payment, he suggests, should be 10 per cent instead of five.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/buying-and-selling/strong-medicine-urged-for-a-fevered-real-estate-market/article2370040/