Sunday, 29 January 2012


1. "两位有关人士透漏,若今年春季房市呈现过热的现象, 政府将进一步缩紧房贷。 目前房市已有些开始冷却的现象, 所以政府还没有马上实施打房政策的需要,但还在密切注意。 可能实施的打房政策包括

1. 减少最高偿还期至25年 (从30年)
2. 增加最低首付至 7.5% 或 10% (从5%)
3. 严格化 "自雇" (Self-employed) 人口申请房贷的条件
4. 严格化公寓投资者申请房贷的条件


"More mortgage rules planned if housing market gets too hot"
- Financial Post. Jan 23, 2012
A new round of mortgage rules from Ottawa could include tough new measures for calculating how the self-employed qualify for loans and tighten regulations for condominium buyers, according to two separate sources.

Ottawa remains concerned about the possibility of an inflated housing market and wants to crack down on the practice where consumers self-disclose what they make when applying for a loan. In the case of the condominium buyer, the government continues to consider a proposal that would have 100% of condo fees count when assessing how much debt a consumer could afford.

“None of this is happening just yet. The housing market has slowed down and the government wants to see what will happen next,” said one source. “If the spring market picks up, then we will see more changes to the rules.”

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said Sunday that some parts of the Canadian real estate market are “probably overvalued” and policymakers are monitoring to see if further steps are needed to cool it.

“We see that in a number of real estate markets in Canada, valuations are at a minimum, firm; in others, they’re probably overvalued. So there are risks there. We’re watching it closely. We’re working with our partners, the federal government, the superintendent of financial institutions,” he said in an interview broadcast on Sunday on CTV.

2. 政府前3波打房政策效果未达期望,可能在短期内公布第4波缩紧房贷政策。

Government mortgage restrictions instituted from 2008-2011 have not achieved their goal, suggests Desjardins’ Senior Economist Benoit Durocher.

He wrote this on Thursday:

“…The third series of [government mortgage rules] was announced nearly a year ago now, and we must conclude that the tightening introduced to date has not
slowed the market enough.

Under these conditions, it is likely, and perhaps even desirable, that the federal government will shortly announce a fourth series of measures to further limit mortgage credit.”

It almost sounds like Durocher has some inside info.

He adds:

“Among other things, the government could be tempted to once again raise the minimum down payment on new loans (it went from 0% to 5% in October 2008).”

Many believe a down payment increase would have a more chilling effect on home prices than the other option being talked about: a reduction in the maximum amortization from 30 to 25 years.

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