Monday 30 July 2012

Poor Richmond...

Richmond 独立屋 7月 成交量

1995 = 108
1996 = 117
1997 = 122
1998 = 86
1999 = 113
2000 = 96
2001 = 183
2002 = 154
2003 = 209
2004 = 129
2005 = 170
2006 = 97
2007 = 175
2008 = 92
2009 = 221
2010 = 107
2011 = 123
2012 = 57 (-53% 同比) * 7月30日

7月只剩一天..

7月1-30日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 2059 vs 2451 (下降16%)
新上市: 4588 vs 4851 (下降 5%)
比例: 45% vs 51% (差 6%)




成交量如预测,在7月下半打房政策完全实施后,大幅下滑。
8月我们将见到更加明显的价位颓势。


就如GF年初所预测,2012下半年,好戏上场。

Wednesday 25 July 2012

本拿比,温东 为房源成长速率最高地区


从3月中算起,每区总房源至今的成长率 (7月24日)
Burnaby 本拿比+69%
Vancouver East 温东+48%
Coquitlam 高贵林+41%
West Vancouver 西温+39%
Sunshine Coast +37%
Richmond 列治文+31%
Vancouver West 温西+28%
Surrey 素里+20%
White Rock 白石+16%
Abbotsford+15%
Langley+12%
Maple Ridge+9%
Mission+3%
Source

IMF: 中国经济现在负面风险非常高

IMF Says China Downside Risks Significant
The International Monetary Fund said China’s slowing economy faces significant downside risks and relies too much on investment, urging leaders to boost consumption and channel citizens’ savings away from housing.

The IMF repeated an assessment that the yuan is “moderately” undervalued, which China disputed, the Washington-based lender said in an annual review. The fund omitted an estimated range for the currency’s undervaluation that was included in an earlier draft, according to two officials at the fund who had seen the previous language and spoke on condition of anonymity.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-25/imf-says-china-downside-risks-significant.html

欧洲状况继续恶化。
世界经济如预期,2012下半-2013极不乐观。

Friday 20 July 2012

7月1-20日 大温销售数据

这周MLS 上发表的成交量过半还是在7月9日前成交的单位 (通常成交后过了1-2周数据才会登录在MLS上)

这两天成交量大幅下滑, 昨天大温地区才卖出49间房,而今天也才卖了67间。 比起去年7月平均每日成交156间房, 明显下降。

7月1-20日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 1416 vs 1605 (下降12%)
新上市: 3216 vs 3165 (上升2%)
比例: 44% vs 51% (差7%)


现在趋势看来,7月下半 (即打房新政生效1-2周后) 的成交量将如预测,加速下滑。
7月整月因有赶在新政实施前买房的"小阳春"现象,所以房价及销售量跌幅还不会非常明显。 但8月开始 (即夏末秋初), 我们可望见到接近08年的跌幅。
只是,这次利率没法再像08-09年下降3.5%了

Wednesday 18 July 2012

My predictions of Vancouver RE Average/Median/HPI Prices 2012-2015

GF预测:

2012年底 比 2012年1月:
大温独立屋 均价 (Avg): 跌12-15% (6月底已比年初跌了7.4%)
温西/列治文/本拿比 中位数价 (Median): 跌8-12% (6月底已比年初跌了~3%)
温西/列治文/本拿比 指标价 (HPI): 跌5-8% (地产局的新指标价算法会低估房价真正的波动)

2013年6月底 比 2012年1月:
大温独立屋 均价 (Avg): 跌16-22%
温西/列治文/本拿比 中位数价 (Median): 跌13-18%
温西/列治文/本拿比 指标价 (HPI): 跌9-15% (地产局的新指标价算法会低估房价真正的波动)

2013年底 比 2012年1月:
大温独立屋 均价 (Avg): 跌23-30%
温西/列治文/本拿比 中位数价 (Median): 跌18-25%
温西/列治文/本拿比 指标价 (HPI): 跌14-22% (地产局的新指标价算法会低估房价真正的波动)

2014年-2015+年
跌幅减缓,但还是以每年3-5%的速度下跌几年

Saturday 14 July 2012

再一个温西地产经纪公开发表: 若你还没卖,可能已经太迟了。

温西地产经纪 Sam Wyatt 的 Blog:

July Market Update: Am I Too Late to Sell?


If you have not yet sold and want to be the smug person who tells their friends how you sold your real estate right at the top of the market, it's likely too late. 

The Months of Inventory (MOI) metric for Westside Vancouver houses rose for the fourth month in a row in June. It has risen from 4.39 in February to 10.57 in June! Attached homes and Apartments rose from under 5 months in March to over 7 months in June. Taken as a whole, these are the highest numbers for MOI since the credit crisis.

温西独立屋总房源已高过08年经济危机最高点

Thursday 12 July 2012

7月展望

1。因为打房政策在7月9日实施,许多首次买房者不智地赶在新政实施前下offer 买房。
(GF认为这批人为"最大傻" - The Greatest Fools)。 目前销售记录显示,公寓单位成交量在7月将超过6月,甚至超过去年7月。
2。独立屋成交量反则继续下滑。 比去年将减少20%左右。
3。列治文独立屋继续为"灾区", 7月底总房源可能达到20个月的滞销。
4。温西独立屋,西温独立屋,北温独立屋,及本拿比独立屋将继续呈现严重颓势。  本拿比独立屋本月表现非常差。
5。8月房市将会是近年来最差的月份之一。

Wednesday 11 July 2012

Welcome the new mortgage rules

GF 开心地欢迎房贷缩紧政策 在7月9日实施。
许多经纪/买家期待的"小阳春"并未实现, 成交量继续比去年减少5%, 而新上市量比去年增加15%。

7月底-8月初我们将可以更清楚地见到打房政策初期的效应。
我们将继续见到房源滞销 (尤其公寓 及 小于~$1.2M 的独立屋)
但温西/列治文独立屋也将继续下滑。

房价下跌的事实将被大众慢慢接受,成为茶余饭后的讨论话题。

购屋者信心将在恶性循环下下跌。
更明显的卖方降价将在夏末秋初呈现。

GF 会继续提供数据及分析。

Saturday 7 July 2012

Early July updates 7月初大温房市快报

房贷新政实施前的最后一个礼拜,卖方期盼的"小阳春" :

7月1-6日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 475 vs 499 (下降5%)
新上市: 1142 vs 979 (上升17%)
比例: 42% vs 51% (差9%)


大温地区这一周有几个特高价位(数百万)成交,在总成交量稀少的情况下,将拉高本月独立屋均价。
7月独立屋均价可能与6月持平,或稍升。

Thursday 5 July 2012

温哥华太阳报: "买方市场不代表是买房时机 - 再等一等,价位必跌"

第一次看见在太阳报这一等级的主流媒体 (大量资金来自地产经纪/开发商广告) 刊登如此看跌房市的新闻。


A buyer’s market, or wishful thinking?

It takes more than just a greater supply of homes to entice homebuyers to enter market



" Just because the real estate industry has heralded a buyer’s market, doesn’t mean it’s time to buy."

买方市场不代表是买房时机

" A stock market investor would likely wait for the market (or the share price) to bottom out before laying down hard-earned (or borrowed) cash to add to his or her portfolio. Again, a homebuyer would be well advised to follow that example."

现在还不是买房时机,投资者应耐心等待抄底。

" Eventually, tighter mortgage rules, high household debt, rising interest rates, overbuilding of condominiums and townhomes, and a slowdown in offshore investment will begin to bite and prices should start to decline.

最后,紧缩的房贷,高升的家庭负债率,逐渐升高的利率,过度兴建的公寓及城市屋,及减缓的海外资产流入,将带动房价下跌。

" One can understand the real estate industry’s hope for a buyer’s market — its members need sales to earn a living. But existing conditions in Vancouver, and other places in B.C., constitute a buyer’s market only if money is no object."

我们可以了解,地产经纪鼓吹所谓"买方市场"一词,是为了刺激买方出手买房,进而赚中介费,赚钱养家。 但是目前事实上的房市状况,完全不是应该买房的时机 (除非你不在意多花钱)。

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/buyer+market+wishful+thinking/6889931/story.html

Wednesday 4 July 2012

温西地产经纪卖掉自住房,建议大家趁跌幅还不大,赶快卖房兑现


Time to Cash Out:
Is the Vancouver real estate market heading for another crash?

I’m a REALTOR and I sold my own home 4 weeks ago.  It wasn’t too big or too small.  It’s only 6 years old and still feels new.  I sold because in 6 months my home will be worth less than it is today.  I think its time to cash out Let me explain.....

To ignore the truth doesn’t change the truth.  And so it is in the Vancouver real estate lately.  Far too often the real estate industry, of which I am obviously a part, makes excuses for slow sales periods, declining prices and difficult negotiations.  These excuses are self serving.  The facts are simple; real estate is easier to sell when prices are going up, realtors are happier when more houses are selling and open houses are more fun when buyers come to look.  However, the good times pass like the bad ones do.  I would suggest that good times have passed in the Vancouver real estate market, at least for the foreseeable future。。.    

上钩的鱼愈来愈少...

独立屋 成交量 下跌最多的区域排名:


西温 (跌 65%)
Jun/12 = 47 sales
Jun/11 = 134 sales

Port Moody (跌 65%)
Jun/12 = 11 sales
Jun/11 = 31 sales

列治文 (跌 52%)
Jun/12 = 76 sales
Jun/11 = 158 sales

温西 (跌 52%)
Jun/12 = 102 sales
Jun/11 = 213 sales

北温 (跌 52%)
Jun/12 = 73 sales
JUn/11 = 153 sales

温东 (跌 41%)
Jun/12 = 107 sales
Jun/11 = 180 sales

高贵林 (跌 31%)
Jun/12 = 101 sales
Jun/11 = 147 sales

本拿比 (跌 31%)
Jun/12 = 83 sales
Jun/11 = 120 sales

June 2012 Vancouver RE Stats Package


Link: 2012-6 大温房市官方数据 - 完整版 Jun REBGV Stats (PDF)

过去10年官方数据 见此

Sunday 1 July 2012

Greater Vancouver SFH Avg Price down to DEC 2010 levels

大温 独立屋 均价

2012-6月 1,061,067 
2012-5月 1,073,311 -1.1% (环比)
2012-2月 1,235,244 -14.1% (史上最高点)
2011-6月 1,215,265 -12.7% (同比)

均价已跌至 2010年12月范围。