Tuesday, 31 January 2012

银行房贷规则改变: 新移民,自雇者将更难拿到房贷 - 2月1日讯

CIBC 在1月31日晚间发表新闻,

停止接收 "Stated Income" 无法证明收入的自雇者的房贷申请

同时,CIBC 将设房贷申请上限于 $1 Million

这改变可能与 加拿大房贷公司 (CMHC) 濒临法定房贷担保上限 600 Billion 有关。 


Self-employed, new immigrants may find getting a mortgage tougher
Published On Wed Feb 01 2012

It’s going to be tougher for the self employed, new immigrants and higher-risk borrowers to get a mortgage as concerns continue to mount over the state of Canada’s housing market.

CIBC’s wholesale mortgage arm, FirstLine, quietly announced Tuesday that it will no longer accept new applications from “stated income” homebuyers who can’t prove they have the annual net income to qualify for home loans.

FirstLine also set a $1 million cap on what it will lend for a home purchase.

The major change in policy, which is bound to pique the interest of other major lenders, came on the same day it was revealed that the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. could be forced to cut back on the mortgages it insures.

The moves are seen as among the clearest indications yet that Canada’s hot housing market and record levels of household debt are a concern far beyond just the Ottawa offices of Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney.

That’s despite a Bank of Montreal report this week that says Canada’s housing market is more balloon than bubble and more likely to deflate than pop.

“The signs are there that everyone is worried, with the exception of BMO. It’s not like there is just one person saying there is a problem with the housing market,” said Jason Friesen, a mortgage consultant with the Callum Ross Team.

“It’s impossible to know, given all the doom and gloom in the rest of the world, what will happen over the next three months or the next six months, but lending institutions are looking for ways to protect themselves.”


2012-1月底大温销售数据 (非官方)

1月1-31日 (2012) 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 1590
新上市单位: 5762
售出/新上市 比例: 27.6%


1月1-31日 (2011) 大温地区 住宅单位
月底(非官方)总售出单位: 1876
月底(非官方)总新上市单位: 4820
月底(非官方)售出/新上市 比例: 38.9%

看来今年1月成交量比去年下降15-16%, 比2010年下降18%, 是十年来第二低
新上市量预计比去年1月上升19-20%, 是十年来最高




1. Buyers have more choice. "买方选择变多" (译: 房源大增)
2. Buyers have more time. "买方有更多时间挑选" (译: 买方市场, 房比以往难卖)
3. Sellers have to price appropriately. "卖方需要谨慎定价" (译: 卖方不要对自己房价期望过高)
4. Good time to buy because of low rates. "现在利率低,是买房好时机" (译: 对地产经纪来说,随时都是买房的好时机)

年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2012 1590 5762 27.6% <- 预测
换句话说,历年的1月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有4-5个售出

MLS 房地产经纪英语用词解码 : )


"Adorable" - 太小难住人,注意房龄

"Charming" - 太小难住人,注意房龄

"Cozy" - 太小难住人

"Cute" - 太小难住人

"Handyman's DIY special" - 外观不佳,房屋质量不好。 需要大量修复

"Easy Highway access" - 离大马路/高速公路太近。噪音/空气问题。

"Motivated" - 卖家看来急着出手;买家应尽量讲价

"Livable" - 难住人, not livable.

"Lot value only" - 房屋难住人,要拆掉重盖

"North-facing" - 可能有山景,但欠缺阳光

"Original owners" - 房屋老旧过时,常有异味

"Ready for your TLC" - 房屋质量不好, 多处需要修复

"Secluded yard" - 后院杂草丛生

"Solid" - 质料坚固,但外观...

"South-facing" - 前门有太阳,但后院阴湿养苔

"Unique" - 奇异,可能难接受的建筑与装潢

"Vancouver special" - 1965-1985年代,温哥华地区驰名的箱状屋,屋顶稍倾, 2楼阳台朝前。主卧室及客厅在2楼,楼下为小卧室,常被用来出租。此类房屋常被批评为不美观。在温东及本拿比尤其常见。

"West-facing" - 午后西晒,公寓尤其严重

Monday, 30 January 2012

BMO 认为加拿大房市是气球,而非泡沫

BMO 首席经济师 Sherry Cooper 认为,加拿大房市顶多是个气球, 可能会慢慢泄气,而非会大幅破灭的泡沫。
1。 利息突然升高
2。 加拿大进入经济衰退期
3。 亚洲经济衰退,造成国外买家大幅减少

大傻 认为, 第一点是迟早会发生的事。 而第二点及第三点则正在我们眼前发生中。

另外消息,这位首席经济师 Sherry Cooper 现在正在卖她在多伦多3百万的房地产。 
[BMO denies housing bubble]
The Bank of Montreal poured cold water on the idea Canada’s housing market could be headed for a crash, suggesting that prices are only “moderately high across the country.”
“Expect the housing boom to cool rather than crash,” BMO’s chief economist Sherry Cooper and senior economist Sal Guatieri said in a report published Monday.
The bank does note, however, three risks to the outlook.
1. A sudden hike in interest rates,
2. a widespread Canadian recession, or
3. an economic slowdown in Asia reducing the number of foreign buyers would all take the air out of Canada’s housing market.
“But barring one of these triggers, however, a dramatic correction is unlikely,” the bank said.


Canada facing subprime mortgage risk

 Jan 30, 2012
Canadian lenders are loosening standards, offering mortgages similar to U.S. subprime loans that pose an “emerging risk” to financial institutions, according to the banking regulator.
Banks and other lenders are becoming “increasingly liberal” with mortgages and home-equity credit lines that don’t require individuals to prove their income, according to 152 pages of documents obtained by Bloomberg News under freedom of information law from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. The mortgages, typically granted to the self-employed and recent immigrants, “have some similarities to non-prime loans in the U.S. retail lending market,” the documents show.

Sunday, 29 January 2012


1. "两位有关人士透漏,若今年春季房市呈现过热的现象, 政府将进一步缩紧房贷。 目前房市已有些开始冷却的现象, 所以政府还没有马上实施打房政策的需要,但还在密切注意。 可能实施的打房政策包括

1. 减少最高偿还期至25年 (从30年)
2. 增加最低首付至 7.5% 或 10% (从5%)
3. 严格化 "自雇" (Self-employed) 人口申请房贷的条件
4. 严格化公寓投资者申请房贷的条件


"More mortgage rules planned if housing market gets too hot"
- Financial Post. Jan 23, 2012
A new round of mortgage rules from Ottawa could include tough new measures for calculating how the self-employed qualify for loans and tighten regulations for condominium buyers, according to two separate sources.

Ottawa remains concerned about the possibility of an inflated housing market and wants to crack down on the practice where consumers self-disclose what they make when applying for a loan. In the case of the condominium buyer, the government continues to consider a proposal that would have 100% of condo fees count when assessing how much debt a consumer could afford.

“None of this is happening just yet. The housing market has slowed down and the government wants to see what will happen next,” said one source. “If the spring market picks up, then we will see more changes to the rules.”

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said Sunday that some parts of the Canadian real estate market are “probably overvalued” and policymakers are monitoring to see if further steps are needed to cool it.

“We see that in a number of real estate markets in Canada, valuations are at a minimum, firm; in others, they’re probably overvalued. So there are risks there. We’re watching it closely. We’re working with our partners, the federal government, the superintendent of financial institutions,” he said in an interview broadcast on Sunday on CTV.

2. 政府前3波打房政策效果未达期望,可能在短期内公布第4波缩紧房贷政策。

Government mortgage restrictions instituted from 2008-2011 have not achieved their goal, suggests Desjardins’ Senior Economist Benoit Durocher.

He wrote this on Thursday:

“…The third series of [government mortgage rules] was announced nearly a year ago now, and we must conclude that the tightening introduced to date has not
slowed the market enough.

Under these conditions, it is likely, and perhaps even desirable, that the federal government will shortly announce a fourth series of measures to further limit mortgage credit.”

It almost sounds like Durocher has some inside info.

He adds:

“Among other things, the government could be tempted to once again raise the minimum down payment on new loans (it went from 0% to 5% in October 2008).”

Many believe a down payment increase would have a more chilling effect on home prices than the other option being talked about: a reduction in the maximum amortization from 30 to 25 years.

Friday, 27 January 2012


1月1-27日 (2012) 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 1355
平均每工作日售出单位: 71
新上市单位: 5187
平均每工作日新上市单位: 273
售出/新上市 比例: 26%

预测月底总售出单位: 1500-1600
预测月底总新上市单位: 5500-5700 

1月1-27日 (2011) 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 1740
平均每工作日售出单位: 92
新上市单位: 4547
平均每工作日新上市单位: 239
售出/新上市 比例: 38%
月底(非官方)总售出单位: 1876
月底(非官方)总新上市单位: 4820
月底(非官方)售出/新上市 比例: 39%

预计今年1月成交量比去年下降约15-17%, 比2010年下降20%, 是十年来第二低
新上市量预计比去年1月上升16-18%, 是十年来最高


年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2002 2248 3626 62.0%
2003 1966 3810 51.6%
2004 1954 3039 64.3%
2005 1697 3360 50.5%
2006 1924 3471 55.4%
2007 1806 4067 44.4%
2008 1819 4675 38.9%
2009 762 3700 20.6%
2010 1923 5147 37.4%
2011 1819 4801 37.9%
2012 1550 5600 27.7% <- 预测

换句话说,历年的1月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有4-5个售出

Mclean's 周刊1月26日讯: "加拿大房市毫无疑问处于泡沫,同时很可能即将破灭"

Mclean's magazine - Thursday, January 26, 2012 1:56pm

"What happens when Canada’s housing bubble pops?"

A few days ago, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney released another alarming, albeit muted, warning shot about the state of the Canadian real estate market. Some properties in Canada are “probably overvalued,” the central banker said during an interview with CTV. Last week Finance Minister Jim Flaherty hinted he is also worried about housing: “We watch the housing market carefully and we are prepared to intervene if necessary,” he said.

So, are we literally living in a bubble? And when it bursts, will it get as ugly as it did south of the border? Here’s where the most recent speculation is pointing:

Yes, we’re in a bubble, and it will probably pop soon.

The signs of a bubble are unequivocal. At 13 years and counting, Canada’s current housing boom is one of the longest-lasting in the world

Thursday, 26 January 2012

1月25日大温+低陆平原 目前总房源

1月25日 大温 3大地产区域 (Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Chilliwack)

2012-1月20日: 18,488 - 比去年同期总房源增加16%,同时新上市量速率明显快过2011。
2011-1月20日: 15,890

Wednesday, 25 January 2012

加拿大就业品质下滑,通膨后收入没涨, 15年来最差




若考虑通膨,2011年前3季的平均收入没涨 (第4季数据还未出),是15年来最差。

Job quality worsening, CIBC warns

A report from the CIBC says the quality of jobs in Canada worsened last year as more people turned to lower paying positions or became self employed.
The bank's employment quality index found that jobs growth was also heavily weighted in the first half of 2011, with nearly all falling within the last six months of the year.
The report also found that real disposable income was unchanged in the first three quarters of 2011, which makes it the worst showing in 15 years.

Tuesday, 24 January 2012


1月1-24日 (2012) 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 1104
平均每工作日售出单位: 69
新上市单位: 4584
平均每工作日新上市单位: 287
售出/新上市 比例: 24%
预测月底总售出单位: 1500-1700
预测月底总新上市单位: 5900-6100 

1月1-24日 (2011) 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 1375
平均每工作日售出单位: 86
新上市单位: 3793
平均每工作日新上市单位: 237
售出/新上市 比例: 36%
月底(非官方)总售出单位: 1876
月底(非官方)总新上市单位: 4820
月底(非官方)售出/新上市 比例: 39%
预计今年1月成交量比去年下降约18-20%, 比2010年下降25%, 是十年来第二低
新上市量预计比去年1月上升20-22%, 是十年来最高。有机会破6000

目前总房源= 13038 , 较去年同期增加19%。
以目前销售速度需要 9.0 月来消化
2011同期总房源= 10941
以当时销售速度需要 6.4 月来消化
年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2002 2248 3626 62.0%
2003 1966 3810 51.6%
2004 1954 3039 64.3%
2005 1697 3360 50.5%
2006 1924 3471 55.4%
2007 1806 4067 44.4%
2008 1819 4675 38.9%
2009 762 3700 20.6%
2010 1923 5147 37.4%
2011 1819 4801 37.9%
换句话说,历年的1月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有4-5个售出


1。 国际货币组织降级欧盟,美加等国。对加拿大未来两年前景的预测比加拿大央行还悲观

IMF downgrades forecast for Eurozone and Canada, and other bad news


2。加拿大 Sears 百货公司 裁员400人。是几个月来第二次裁员。

Sears Canada cuts 400 employees in the second downsizing in months

Monday, 23 January 2012

加拿大央行: "加国某些房地产市场估值过高"

1月22日 - 央行总裁Mark Carney 在周日CTV电视台访问时公开承认,加拿大"某些"房市呈现价格过热,高估的现象,若此现象继续下去,"我相信有关部门(暗指财长 Flaherty) 将采取一定措施来冷却房市。  我们将密切观察。"

大傻继续认为,财长在3月宣布政府预算期间,有很大可能将进一步缩紧房贷。而缩紧的手段,有可能是基本的缩短偿还期, 或是影响较大的增加首付。  也有可能是减少CMHC保障比例,强迫银行承担更多的风险 (以保护纳税人)。

Some Canada property markets likely overvalued: BoC

Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:09pm EST

Some parts of the Canadian real estate market are "probably overvalued" and policymakers are monitoring to see if further steps are needed to cool it, the head of the country's central bank said in an interview broadcast on Sunday.
It was the second time in recent days that Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney voiced concern about property prices, which surged after the financial crisis as borrowing costs tumbled.
"We see that in a number of real estate markets in Canada, valuations are at a minimum, firm; in others, they're probably overvalued. So there are risks there. We're watching it closely. We're working with our partners, the federal government, the superintendent of financial institutions," he said in an interview on "Question Period" on CTV.
"Measures have been taken. They've been effective. We'll keep up that vigilance. If more needs to be done, I'm sure the appropriate authorities will take those measures."

Saturday, 21 January 2012

Below Assessment, Motivated, and Foreclosure indexes

"below assessment (开价比政府估价低)" 总数: 197 / 总房源 10671 = 1.8%

"motivated" (积极的卖方) 总数: 184 / 总房源 10671 = 1.7%

"below assessment (开价比政府估价低)" 总数: 294 / 总房源 12764 = 2.3%

"motivated" (积极的卖方) 总数: 224 / 总房源 12764 = 1.8%

"Foreclosure" 总数 : 27
"Court ordered sale" 总数: 55
法拍屋总数:82 / 总房源 12764 = 0.6%

* 搜寻引擎看来只搜"assessment"一字。所以有些结果并非below assessment, 但大多数是。

Friday, 20 January 2012

1月1-20日 销售记录

1月20日 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 98
新上市单位: 250

1月1-20日 (2012) 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 914
平均每工作日售出单位: 65
新上市单位: 3947
平均每工作日新上市单位: 282
售出/新上市 比例: 23%
预测月底总售出单位: 1400-1600
预测月底总新上市单位: 5700-5900

1月1-20日 (2011) 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 1129
平均每工作日售出单位: 81
新上市单位: 3236
平均每工作日新上市单位: 231
售出/新上市 比例: 35%
月底(非官方)总售出单位: 1999
月底(非官方)总新上市单位: 5090
月底(非官方)售出/新上市 比例: 39%
预计今年1月成交量比去年下降约18-20%, 比2010年下降25%, 是十年来第二低

年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2002 2248 3626 62.0%
2003 1966 3810 51.6%
2004 1954 3039 64.3%
2005 1697 3360 50.5%
2006 1924 3471 55.4%
2007 1806 4067 44.4%
2008 1819 4675 38.9%
2009 762 3700 20.6%
2010 1923 5147 37.4%
2011 1819 4801 37.9%
换句话说,历年的1月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有4-5个售出

Wednesday, 18 January 2012

1月1-17日 独立屋 房源 温西,西温,白石,列治文,本拿比 供过于求

1月1-17日 独立屋 房源(以月算)
(<5为卖方市场, 5-6为平衡市场,>6为买方市场)
温东 Van East 5.8
北温 North Van 6.4
高贵林 Coquitlam 6.5
北素里 N SURREY 7.8 
本拿比 Burnaby 9.6 
素里 SURREY 9.9 
列治文 Richmond 11.1
白石 WHITE ROCK 13.3 
西温 West Van 16.7 
温西 Van west 18.3  
Maple Ridge 18.4 

2012-1月前17天 数据

2012-1月前17天的数据显示 ,

总房源 (@ 1月同期)
2012: 12400
2011: 10452
-> 比去年增加 18.6% (几天前才是 +16.9%)

成交量 (@ 1月同期)
2012: 659
2011: 846
-> 比去年减少 22% (几天前才是 -20%)

新上市量 (@ 1月同期)
2012: 3190
2011: 2507
-> 比去年大增 27% (几天前才是 +25.5%)

(<5为卖方市场, 5-6为平衡市场,>6为买方市场)
2012: 9.9 (几天前为10月)
2011: 6.5 (几天前为6.9月)
->2012年初 目前毫无疑问地处于买方市场。

看来买方趋向观望,而已有不少卖方想在春季传统旺市前, 抢先上市