Wednesday 31 October 2012



Canadian economy shrank in August

Posted: Oct 31, 2012

Canada's economy contracted for the first time in six months, with August figures showing it shrank 0.1 per cent compared to July.
Statistics Canada said Wednesday that the service sector was unchanged, but led by declines in mining, oil and gas, and manufacturing, the goods-producing sector shrank by 0.5 per cent.
Economists had been expecting a slight gain of 0.2 per cent overall.

With the poor showing, Canada posted its slowest annual pace of growth in more than two years



3475 W26th (Dunbar) – 成交价 $2,185,000
估价 $2,286,000
原开价 $2,448,000 in 2012-9月
原买价 $2,410,000 in 2011-6月 (温西价位顶点)
跌$225,000 + 5%(中介/律师/PTT等) = 亏 $339,300 (未计养房费及机会成本)

3441 W33rd (Dunbar) – 成交价 $1,933,000
估价 $1,986,100
原买价 $1,958,000 in 2011-2月
跌$25,000 + 5%(中介/律师/PTT等) = 亏 $122,900 (未计养房费及机会成本)

5087 Connaught Drive (Shaughnessy
原开价 $4,288,000 in 2012-3月
降价后 $3,988,000 in 2012-7月
估价 $4,066,100
原买价 $4,600,000 in 2011-9月
跌$612,000 + 5%(中介/律师/PTT等) = 亏 $811,400 (未计养房费及机会成本)

4490 Blenheim Street (Mackenzie Heights
原开价 $2,380,000 in 2012-3月
降价后 $1,698,000 in 2012-7月
估价 $1,716,000
原买价 $1,920,000 in 2011-5月
跌$222,000 + 5%(中介/律师/PTT等) = 亏 $306,900 (未计养房费及机会成本)

3475 West 26th Ave (Dunbar
原开价 $2,448,000 in 2012-9月
降价后 $2,248,000 in 2012-10月
估价 $2,286,000
原买价 $2,410,000 in 2011-6月
跌$162,000 + 5%(中介/律师/PTT等) = 亏 $274,400 (未计养房费及机会成本)

3560 Barmond Ave (Richmond
原开价 $1,260,000 in 2012-3月
降价后 $950,000 in 2012-6月
估价 $1,029,700
原买价 $1,168,000 2011-2月
跌$218,000 + 5%(中介/律师/PTT等) = 亏 $265,500 (未计养房费及机会成本)

4675 Belcarra Bay Road (Port Moody
原开价 $2,980,000 in 2012-3月
降价后 $1,998,000 in 2012-10月
估价 $2.066M
原买价 $2.09M in 2011-9月
跌$92,000 + 5%(中介/律师/PTT等) = 亏 $191,900 (未计养房费及机会成本)

Tuesday 30 October 2012


Finance official questions link between cooling housing market, mortgage rules

 Mr. Flaherty was asked about his deputy minister’s comments.
“I’d certainly agree that the full impact [of the changes to mortgage rules] has not been felt yet,” said the Minister.


Friday 26 October 2012

列治文 Update

今日 (10/26) 列治文 独立屋总房源为1087.
平均要价为 $1,406,649
中位数要价为 $1,198,000.
今日算起之前30日,列治文只有 35个独立屋成交。
中位数成交价为 $938,000.
房源滞销31个月, 完全处于买方市场。

今日 (10/26) 列治文 非独立屋 (公寓+城市屋)总房源为1411.
平均要价为 $437,749
中位数要价为 $428,000.
今日算起之前30日,列治文只有 71个 非独立屋成交。
中位数成交价为 $410,000.
房源滞销20个月, 完全处于买方市场。

10月25日 大温总房源

Friday 19 October 2012

Oct 1-19 YoY Stats

10月1-19日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 1247 vs 1442 (下降14%)
新上市: 3098 vs 2835 (上升9%)
比例: 40% vs 51% (差11%)
预计月底成交量: 1980 vs 2317 (同比下降15%)
预计月底新上市: 4725 vs 4374 (同比上升8%)
预计月底总房源: 18200 vs 15377 (同比上升18%)
滞销量:9.1-9.5月 (预计) vs 6.6月 (同比)

大温地区滞销量在10月底将达到9.3个月 (十多年来第二高),继续维持于明显买方市场
今年10月成交/新上市比 将成为十多年来第二低,仅次于2008年。

Monday 15 October 2012

加拿大家庭负债/收入比例在重新计算后,大幅上升。 轻易超越美国房市泡沫顶端时期

Canada household debt-to-income ratio revised sharply higher, and still rising

Mon Oct 15, 2012 
Canada's household debt is far higher than previously thought relative to income, Statistics Canada's historical revisions revealed on Monday, heightening pressure on policy makers to address what they have called the biggest domestic threat to the economy.

And the rate was still rising to a new record in the second quarter -- before the tightening of mortgage insurance rules. The ratio of household credit-market debt to disposable income jumped to 163.4 percent in the second quarter from 161.8 percent, according to revisions made to bring the agency's methodology in line with updated international standards.
Under the old method, Statscan had reported a ratio of 152.0 percent for the first quarter.
The agency revised the ratio for 2011 to 161.7 percent from the previously estimated 150.6 percent.
The debt ratio is a key measure of the vulnerability of households to financial shocks, whether from a loss of income or a sharp fall in housing prices. A Statistics Canada analyst said the Canadian household debt-to-income ratio was well above that of the United States.

Sunday 14 October 2012

列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示:大温卖家开始夺门而出,长期跌幅已开始

James Wong, 即两个月前预测Richmond独立屋3年内下跌30%, 及上个月发表 "列治文跌幅加大,将持续几年,越早卖亏越少" 的列治文地产经纪, 今日再著作两篇文章。

Market sentiment has deteriorated further. Buyers prefer to stay on the sideline, waiting for home prices to fall further. The only way out for sellers who are determined to sell was to price their home more aggressively. Sellers who are taking deep cuts in reducing their selling prices are the ones likely to succeed in selling their homes.
市场信心继续恶化。 潜在买方继续在旁观望,看着房价继续下跌。真正急着要卖的卖方只有一个选择,就是以更大幅度砍下要价。 目前市场惟有砍的够深的卖方才有指望有买家青睐。
Richmond detached homes over $1,000,000 are not seeing much buying interest. With total active listings of 686 and average sale around 28 homes the past 3 months, there are 24.5 months supply of homes in the market. For detached homes over $1,500,000, there are currently 353 homes for sale. With an average past 3 months sale of 12 homes, this translates into 29 months supply of homes. The decline in housing sales and home prices in Richmond will take many years to play out.
列治文大于$1M 的独立屋继续不受买方青睐。其总房源为686,过去3个月平均每月成交28户,达到24.5个月的滞销。 列治文大于$1.5M 的独立屋表现继续差劲,总房源为353, 过去3个月平均每月成交12户,达到29个月的滞销。 列治文房市的跌幅将需要许多年才会跌到底。
Now with the housing market experiencing a huge drop in sales, large over-hang of supply and poor market sentiment, home price decline is inevitable.
During the 1995 to 2001 downturn, not only employment in the construction industry contracted, thousands of real estate agents quit the business.
目前成交量大跌,房源滞销极高, 房价的下跌是无可避免的事实。

We are now witnessing the unwinding of the housing market. It will take many years before owning a home makes sense again. Home prices are not going up now or holding. Instead, the housing market is coming down in values. The rush to exit the market will take its toll on sellers who bought their homes recently.
我们现在目睹的,是正在下跌中的大温房市。 我们还需要许多年才会见底。 房价现在不是上升,不是持平,而是已开始下跌。先知先觉的卖家正在夺门而出, 而最近(一年)才买房的卖家会面临逐日而增的亏损。

Saturday 13 October 2012


10月1-12日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 840 vs 917 (下降8.4%)
新上市: 2210 vs 1840 (上升20%)
比例: 38% vs 50% (差12%)
预计月底成交量: 2000 vs 2317 (同比下降14%)
预计月底新上市: 5100 vs 4374 (同比上升17%)
预计月底总房源: 18700 vs 15377 (同比上升22%)
滞销量:9.3-9.6月 (预计) vs 6.6月 (同比)

大温地区滞销量在10月底将达到9.5个月 (十多年来第二高),继续维持于明显买方市场
而今年10月成交/新上市比 将成为十多年来第二低,仅次于2008年。

Sunday 7 October 2012

“Tighter mortgage rules thwarting sales”


The Province - Oct 7, 2012

“Pauline Kendall owns three houses and a condominium but she couldn’t get financing this summer when she tried to add to her real estate holdings..”
CMHC looks closely at income verification in order to approve the mortgage loans. Income from rent or when someone is new to the country and doesn’t have income tax returns complicate the approval process.
And although Kendall wasn’t applying for a CMHC-backed loan the rule changes have had a “trickle-down” effect to other major lenders, who are tightening their requirements for mortgages – which was the roadblock she faced.
Rental income of $1,000 per month can pay for a mortgage worth around $200,000, according to Ellis. But to the CMHC, the value of that rent is only enough to qualify for a mortgage of about $34,000.
“Rental income has been basically rendered useless,” said Ellis.
Prior to the changes in July, lenders were likely to look more favourably on rental income as a criteria for a loan. Now many of them are using the CMHC criteria.
…Other reasons for the slowdown, said Klein, are net immigration being slightly down and “consumer confidence.”
What Klein hears from Vancouver area realtors is that a lot of buyers are not making a decision in anticipation they might get a better deal tomorrow.

Globe & Mail: 大温,大多成交量不断下跌,将无可避免地拖下房价。

最近总有人 (尤其是地产业相关人员) 在鼓吹说 房市虽然量跌,但价绝不会跌。 这种"永恒看多派"的理论在去年的大温及现在的大多市场不少见。举个例:

大多BMO房贷经纪 王红雨 一周前在中文论坛上讲过 
"[GF] 归纳了一条谬论:成交量下降,房价就会下降。这是HUSHUO。利率如此之低,没有大规模失业,房主会降价卖自己的房子吗?有人犹豫要不要买房,市场走缓,很正常,作为卖家当然不愿以这个时候卖房,所以交投清淡。但如果以此类推说房价会跌,纯属HUCHE。"

前几天BMO分析师Robert Kavcic 才在主流媒体上发表 "大多房市动态明确呈现: 房市已步向买方市场之言, 昨日Globe & Mail 接着刊出以下这篇报导:


When home sales sink, prices are sure to follow 

Thursday 4 October 2012

BMO: 大多市场在08年衰退后再次步向"买方市场"

Toronto housing heads for buyers' market, first time since slump: BMO
updated Thursday, Oct. 04 2012, 7:02 PM

Here’s the bottom line on Toronto’s housing market from Robert Kavcic at BMO Nesbitt Burns: Toronto is on its way to becoming a buyers’ market for the first time since the slump.

BMO 分析师 Robert Kavcic 今日公开指出,"大多房市动态现明确呈现: 房市已步向买方市场。

the signs are clear, particularly in the condo market, which has been a major area of concern and where sales lost 27 per cent. Standard detached homes sank by 19 per cent.

迹象十分明显, 尤其是大多公寓市场。 此市场早已处于高风险状态, 本月其成交量已下跌27%。 而独立屋成交量下跌19%。

Prices climbed, by 8.6 per cent on average, but that’s bound to change.
均价上升了8.6%, 但是这情况注定会扭转。

“With new listings up 4 per cent year over year against a backdrop of falling sales, and with plenty of potential resale condo supply coming over the next year, Toronto is quickly heading for buyers’ market territory for the first time (depending on your definition) since the recession,” Mr. Kavcic said.
新上市量增加了4%, 成交量相对减少, 而未来即将上市的房源蓄势以待, 多伦多正在以迅速的步伐迈向2008年经济衰退后第一次的买方市场。

GF: "买方市场"这词实在不理想,买方市场不代表买房时机,只是说明供过于求,买方缺少, 造成卖方降价压力开始增加的一个阶段。

Wednesday 3 October 2012

Financial Post: "房市开始明显下跌,地产业界开始仓促地寻找借口"

As housing market slows, industry scrambles to paint positive picture
Garry Marr | Oct 3, 2012 6:42 PM

Organized real estate is unable, it seems, to admit the glory days may be behind it.

看来,地产业界无法轻易地承认 以往的辉煌已经成为过去式。

Sales plummet in major markets and the industry comes up with a new explanation for the decline, draping its comments with a sense that everything is just fine. The excuses are piling up.
在各大地产区域,成交量已开始大幅缩减。 地产业界开始寻找借口来掩饰这个现实, 继续对大众宣传一切还是美好的。

Ignore what they are saying. Sales are plummeting in Toronto and Vancouver
我们必须不理会这些宣传。 事实是,大温大多成交量已开始急速下跌。

The normal course in any cycle is for sales to correct first and then for prices to follow, he adds. “There is a time lag, that’s what happened in the United States. There’s a time lag as sellers hold on, refusing to drop their asking price, eventually they acknowledge the market has shifted under them.”
在任何一个房市周期,我们会先见到成交量收缩,接着才会见到价位下跌。 这两者之间有一个时滞,如同最近美国的例子。

根据大温这几年来的数据而言,从房市步入买方市场 (房源滞销量大于7个月) 至 地产局指标价/中位价等等明显下调,之间的时滞约为小于2个月。

9月底大温滞销量从10.7个月恶化至12.1个月, 若要做短期预测,年底前房价 (地产局指标价,中位价等等)会继续下滑。

Tuesday 2 October 2012

2012-9月 独立屋 数据

Single Family House (SFH) Stats 2012-09

  成交量: -50% 同比, -10% 环比
  成交/上市比: 22% vs 32%同比
  指标价: -4.2% 同比, -1.3% 环比
  中位价: -9.8% 同比, -1.4% 环比

  成交量: -49% 同比, -10% 环比
  成交/上市比: 18% vs 35%同比
  指标价: +4.2% 同比, -0% 环比
  中位价: -13% 同比, -6.3% 环比

  成交量: -48% 同比, -6% 环比
  成交/上市比: 30% vs 51%同比
  指标价: +3.2% 同比, -1.1% 环比
  中位价: -2.5% 同比, -0.6% 环比

  成交量: -37% 同比, +16% 环比
  成交/上市比: 30% vs 51%同比
  指标价: +3.6% 同比, -0.2% 环比
  中位价: +0.4% 同比, -3.7% 环比

  成交量: -17% 同比, +15% 环比
  成交/上市比: 27% vs 27%同比
  指标价: -6.5% 同比, -1.3% 环比
  中位价: +1% 同比, +0% 环比

Sep 2012 Official REBGV Stats Package

2012-9 大温房市官方数据 Sep REBGV Stats (PDF)

2001-2012 archives see here

9月底 大温销售数据 - 官方版

作者: Greater Fool 查看帖子
9月底 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 1510 vs 2246 ( 同比下降33%,环比下降8%)
新上市: 5230 vs 5680 (下降8%)
比例: 29% vs 40% (差11%)

滞销量:12-12.4月 (预计) vs 7.2月 (同比)

大温地区滞销量在9月底将达到12-12.4个月,比上个月 (10.7个月)再增约1.5个月的滞销房源,
比7月 (8.6个月) 增加4个月的滞销房源,完全深入买方市场

9月底 大温销售数据 - 官方版
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 1516 vs 2246 ( 同比下降32.5%,环比下降8%)
新上市: 5321 vs 5680 (下降6%)
比例: 28% vs 40% (差12%)
大温地区滞销量在9月底达到12.1个月,比上个月 (10.7个月)再增1.4个月的滞销房源,
比7月 (8.6个月) 增加3.5个月的滞销房源,完全深入买方市场

2012 滞销程度与 08年相当