Wednesday, 27 August 2014

Is Vancouver West High-end Demand Really Weaning?

It's been a while since I posted due to life events, travel, and busy work schedule.
Good to be back!  I did continue to post daily stats and noteworthy news on my twitter account (@greaterfoolvan) however!

Globe & Mail today had this piece

"Is the dip in high-end house sales in Vancouver just a summer blip?"
"He says listings are up in certain segments while sales are looking stagnant. The figures for single detached homes on Vancouver’s west side in the $3-million to $3.5-million price bracket – which is certainly high-end but not quite “luxury” – show 106 active listings and just nine sales, compared with 73 listed homes and 7 sales during July, 2013.“Right now, these numbers are showing blood in the water – and the sharks haven’t sniffed yet,” Mr. Kurland said."

I got my hands on the sales-by-price-range charts of Van West and Burnaby for 2012-2014, figure I'll do some quick math. Here goes:

Jan-July 31 Sales
Vancouver West
2012: 175
2013: 214
2014: 321

Jan-July 31 Sales
2012: 13
2013: 13
2014: 19

We can see thus far in 2014, cumulative from Jan-July there has been more high-end sales than previous 2 years in Van West and Burnaby.

However from some other data sources, there are some indications that the high-end sales are softening in the last 2 months (especially in Burnaby).  Based on the asking vs sold price differential, there seem to be increased bargaining room in the higher end (1.5M+).