Thursday 31 May 2012

5月底统计

5月1-31日: 2012 vs 2011:

成交量: 2837 vs 3377: -16%
新上市: 6724 vs 5931: +13%
比例: 42% vs 57%

成交量10年最低
总房源10年最高

5月底大温总房源再创新高


5月大温独立屋均价将..

根据可靠消息,
5月份 大温独立屋 均价 将再见明显跌幅。
而独立屋指标价有可能下跌 (最后还是得看地产局如何操纵他们新制定的HPI方程式)
列治文独立屋指标价若不下跌,GF会严重怀疑地产局HPI指标价的真实性。

Wednesday 30 May 2012

房市负面因子 Update

几个短期 (6-12月)不利房价的因素:
1. 加国金融管理组织(OSFI)将在6月中发表可能在年底前执行的严格贷款新规,相关法令将在年底前执行。 其实银行在今年初已经逐渐缩紧借贷, 但若这OSFI之前公布的新规草稿大部分执行,则加拿大全国的借贷将大幅缩紧。

2. 欧盟金融危机不乐观,可能在今年底/明年带动大规模经济衰退/信贷紧缩。

3. 加国央行可能在今年底/明年初开始渐进加息, 或是更快 (趁加币目前持续下跌的时期加息,对出口业的影响较小)

4. 大温房源已达10多年来最高,而成交量则是10多年最低。 某些地区供过于求的状况已持续数月,造成价位开始腐蚀。 例:列治文最近的大部分成交价已低于政府估价。08-09年有政府大减利率(一年内降3%)及其他宽松政策,房市才停跌反涨。 但今年政府已明言要对付房市泡沫了,而利率已没有什么大幅下调的空间了。

5. 移民部长接连发表不利亚洲移民的政策, 虽说真正的冲击可能要过一阵子,但这对投资/炒房者的信心会有负面影响。

6. 加拿大国税局 CRA 最近开始较严格查税,包括海外资产,这对大温房市会有一定的负面影响。 

7. 其他的中长期因素,包括人口老化,人口成长率放缓,人民负债率 等等。

GF建议 => 若你一定要买房 (不考虑租房), 那你一年后买可能会比现在少付~10% (Burnaby, 保守估计)。 至少也先等等,观察到夏末。。

Tuesday 29 May 2012

5/29 Update

5月1-29日: 2012 vs 2011:

成交量: 2559 vs 3104: -18%
新上市: 6214 vs 5394: +15%
比例: 41.2% vs 57.5%: -16.3%


2012 vs 2011 [成交/新上市]比例 同比 差异:
1月: -10.5%
2月: -8.6%
3月: -10.8%
4月: -9.5%
5月: -16.3% (预计)

Richmond 大减价 Update


MLS: V946185
6660 COLTSFOOT DR RICHMOND 
Assessed: $1,086,600
Listed January 16: Asking $968,000
Now Asking: $868,000
Sold 5/28: $800,000

Monday 28 May 2012

春末大清仓即将登场?

Richmond 大减价 ?
MLS: V946185
6660 COLTSFOOT DR RICHMOND 
Assessed: $1,086,600
Listed January 16: Asking $968,000
Now Asking: $868,000
Sold 5/28?




温西大减价:

Address: 4492 CROWN ST, Dunbar, Vancouver West

Mar 09 V933847 $2,268,000 $0 0%
Mar 17 V933847 $1,985,000 $-283,000 -12%
Apr 12 V933847 removed
Apr 18 V943874 $1,980,000 $-288,000 -13%
May 10 V943874 $1,790,000 $-478,000 -21%

Assessment: $2,048,500

温哥华西区 5月25日 价格变动:
地址 - 原价 - 新价 - 变化
4460 W 6th - 2.748M -> 2.640M - (108k)
3760 17th - 1.698M -> 1.598M - (100k)
160 59th - 1.35M -> 1.28M - (70k)
475 38th - 2.99M -> 2.78M (210k)
5637 Baillie - 2.348M -> 2.331M (17k)
4452 Crown - 2.68M -> 2.55M - (130k)
1816 McNicoll - 2.498 -> 2.35 - (148k)
5276 Blenheim - 3.388 -> 2.998 - (390k)
3348 - 3352 3rd - 2.198 -> 1.988 - (210k)

5/25 温西成交:
2965 W 34th – new house – 原价 $2.899M on Sept 30/11 – 成交价 $2.45M.

5/28 温西价格变动:
1106 w49 - 3.680M -> 3.480M - (200k)
4393 Puget - 2.895M -> 2.795M - (100k)
8328 Tugboat Pl - 1.538M -> 1.388M - (150k)
4449 Pine - 4.388M -> 3.88M - (508k)
4077 36th - 5.688M -> 4.998M - (689k)

5/28 温西成交:
1317 w64th - 原价 1.288M -> 成交 1.179M (- $109,000)
2842 W24th - 原价 1.688M -> 成交 1.548M (- $140,000)
2128 W22nd- 原价 2.788M -> 成交 $2.338M (- $450,000)

Sunday 27 May 2012

4/23-5/23 几个区域的销售量/总房源

各区 4/23-5/23 独立屋 成交量/总房源 

Maple Ridge: 68/715

New West: 23/110

Sunshine Coast 28/669

Squamish 10/222 !

West Van: 58/518

N. Van 109/393

Surrey 238/2309

Abbotsford 66/840

Van West 105/1043


** 最精准数据得见月底MLS官方报告。

Saturday 26 May 2012

列治文 降价排行榜 5/25

列治文 降价排行榜

#1) Address:8191 RIVER RD, Bridgeport, Richmond

March 09V933209$369,000$00%
March 31V933209$349,000$-20,000-5%
May 09V933209removed
May 25V952136$165,000$-204,000-55%
Assessment: No assessment available

#2) Address:# 8 23740 DYKE RD, Hamilton, Richmond

March 09V867144$2,527,000$00%
April 28V867144removed
May 04V947680$1,842,800$-684,200-27%
Assessment: New Development

#3) Address:5035 WILLIAMS RD, Lackner, Richmond

March 09V930050$1,589,000$00%
March 26V930050removed
March 30V940047$1,498,000$-91,000-6%
May 08V940047removed
May 11V949356$1,188,000$-401,000-25%
Assessment: $1,138,000 (Building Unfinished at time of assessment)

#4) Address:# 2 23740 DYKE RD, Hamilton, Richmond

March 09V867139$2,455,000$00%
April 28V867139removed
May 04V947601$1,863,000$-592,000-24%
Assessment: New Development

#5) Address:# 212 8740 CITATION DR, Brighouse, Richmond

March 09V928020$168,800$00%
March 14V928020$159,900$-8,900-5%
March 15V928020$139,900$-28,900-17%
April 09V928020$130,000$-38,800-23%
Assessment: $134,300

#6) Address:8140 SUNNYWOOD DR, Broadmoor, Richmond

March 09V915995$1,680,000$00%
May 14V915995removed
May 24V951819$1,288,000$-392,000-23%
Open House: May 27
Assessment: $1,506,000

#7) Address:7420 RAILWAY AV, Granville, Richmond

March 09V927736$1,240,000$00%
March 10V927736$1,180,000$-60,000-5%
April 11V927736removed
April 14V943141$1,120,000$-120,000-10%
May 17V943141$998,000$-242,000-20%
Assessment: $1,019,400

#8) Address:# 5 23740 DYKE RD, Hamilton, Richmond

March 09V865743$2,674,000$00%
April 28V865743removed
May 04V947653$2,155,800$-518,200-19%
Assessment: New Development



Friday 25 May 2012

5月1-25日大温地区销售数据



2012 vs 2011 5月同期
成交 2317 vs 2815 (-18%)
新上市 5631 vs 4881 (+15%)
比例 41% vs 58% (-17%)


GF: 温哥华房市大势早去。 下半年到2013将是重头戏

Wednesday 23 May 2012

温东 - 比降价比赛


 Address:# 610 251 E 7TH AV, Mount Pleasant, Vancouver East
March 09V933551$515,000$00%
March 10V933551$499,900$-15,100-3%
March 17V933551$479,900$-35,100-7%
April 14V933551$469,900$-45,100-9%
April 28V933551$459,900$-55,100-11%
May 03V933551removed
May 08V948052$449,900$-65,100-13%
Assessment: New Building

Address:# 910 251 E 7TH ST, Mount Pleasant, Vancouver East
March 12V936641$539,000$00%
March 17V936641$529,000$-10,000-2%
March 22V936641$519,000$-20,000-4%
April 04V936641$499,000$-40,000-7%
April 12V936641$479,000$-60,000-11%
May 16V936641$468,000$-71,000-13%
Open House: May 27
Assessment: New Building

Tuesday 22 May 2012

欧盟濒临"严重经济衰退"

Eurozone risks 'severe recession,' OECD warns

17 countries using euro are 'close to' 2% economic contraction

Posted: May 22, 2012 5:33 AM ET 

Last Updated: May 22, 2012 5:54 AM ET



The 17-country eurozone risks falling into a "severe recession," the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development warns, calling on governments and Europe's central bank to act quickly to stop the slowdown spilling over into the global economy.
OECD Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan said the eurozone is "close to" the possible scenario of a two per cent economic contraction this year that the Paris-based think tank laid out as its worst-case scenario last November.

Saturday 19 May 2012

澳洲房市经过了一年的"买方市场", 继续下跌

看来一年前在"买方市场"出手 "炒底"的投资客现在继续亏本。

GF:一个开始破灭的房市泡沫,尤其在现在人口老化,世界经济衰退等情况下,将持续下跌许多年。乐观5-6年,悲观10-15年。

Year to April 2012
Sydney-2.6%
Melbourne-7.0%
Brisbane-6.4%
Adelaide-4.2%
Perth-2.8%
Darwin-1.1%
Canberra-0.7%
Hobart-8.5%
National-4.5%

Tuesday 15 May 2012

CBC:"大温房价较去年下跌 9.8%"

看来欧洲金融风暴现在展开更新(更坏)阶段。
中国经济亦继续表现不如理想。

而主流媒体继续增加报导大温房市的跌幅与未来风险

Canadian home prices flatten in April

May 15, 2012 4:17 PM ET 


Friday 11 May 2012

5月1-11日 销售记录

5月11日大温地区销售记录
新上市: 262 
成交量: 81

_________________________
5月1-11日 销售记录 (2012 vs 2011)
新上市: 3036 vs 2738 (+10.9%)
成交量: 1179 vs 1481 (-20.4%)

Thursday 10 May 2012

Vancouver Sun: 为何现在是卖房兑现的好时机?

Hot Canadian home prices moving some homeowners to sell -- for profit
MAY 10, 2012 1:01 PM



Why might it be a good time to sell?
At about $370,000 average nationally - and just under $800,000 in Vancouver - home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.
"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.
The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate - albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.

While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
And Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.
In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation - and tax free if it's the principal home.

Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.
That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.

"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.
"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."
The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.

"我们现在正在面对一完全不理智的对房市的过度依赖。 很多人认为房市是某种奇幻的, 永远只涨不跌的投资项目。  但是,当调整期/泡沫破灭到来,许多人过满的信心将转为恐惧。。。"

"我们现在明显处于大温房市最高点,而房市的未来值得担忧 。 许多分析师已预测跌幅将至少10-25% (某些过热地区将跌更多)。  现在可以说是卖房兑现的最佳时机。 "

(GF认为,最佳时机其实是去年6月以前)

Tuesday 8 May 2012

大傻在北美中文网的专栏开张!

 (北美中文网报道) 地产走势如何,向来是置业者、投资者关注的重点。大温地产局、菲沙河谷地产局均会发布每月地产相关数据,不过,由于地产局统计数据分类庞杂,且相关数据新闻多侧重总体表现,因此对于具体区域的具体房型市场表现,读者不一定十分了解。北美中文网网友“GreatFool” 长期关注大温及加国地产数据,并结合人口变动、经济发展、移民政策等进行跟踪分析,颇受网友关注。本网特辑录“大傻地产观察”内容,一家之言,供读者参考。
      
      【大傻地产观察】 :大温地区4月表现最差的区域 (独立屋)


      By 北美中文网网友“GreatFool”


       1、4月 Van West 独立屋 
       成交量 = 130
       较去年 = 214 大跌 39%
       较上月 = 152 下跌 14%

       新上市 = 395
       较去年 = 358 上升 10%
       较上月 = 336 上升 18%

       2、4月 West Van 独立屋 
       成交量 = 83
       较去年 = 141 大跌 41%
       较上月 = 78 上升 6%

       新上市 = 184
       较去年 = 200 下跌 8%
       较上月 = 158 上升 16%

       3、4月 Burnaby 独立屋 
       成交量 = 94
       较去年 = 150 大跌 37%
       较上月 = 95 下跌 1%

       新上市 = 246
       较去年 = 193 上升 27%
       较上月 = 210 上升 17%

       4、4月 Coquitlam 独立屋
       成交量 = 119
       较去年 = 143 下跌 17%
       较上月 = 154 下跌 23%

       新上市 = 210
       较去年 = 214 下跌 2%
       较上月 = 225 下跌 7%

       5、4月 Van East 独立屋 
       成交量 = 135
       较去年 = 171 下跌 21%
       较上月 = 155 下跌 13%

       新上市 = 270
       较去年 = 271 下跌 0%
       较上月 = 291 下跌 7%

       6、4月 Richmond 独立屋 
       成交量 = 114
       较去年 = 143 下跌 20%
       较上月 = 104 上升 10%

       新上市 = 350
       较去年 = 408 下跌 14%
       较上月 = 326 上升 7%

大温房市继续滞销

5月数据目前看来比3,4月还糟。

新上市量看来将创10年新高
成交量看来将创10年新低

而最近一个半月银行贷款单位开始较严格执行收入证明。
若未有足够的收入,只有大量的首付是不够的。
这新政策将继续明显地压抑贷款量,间接地影响房价。

Monday 7 May 2012

Fraser Valley 4月 独立屋 数据 2012 vs 2011



中位数价 April ’11: $558K
中位数价 April ’12: $537K (-3.7%)

均价 April ’11: $641K
均价 April ’12: $589K (-8.1%!)

HPI 指标价 April ’11: $547K
HPI 指标价 April ’12: $576K (+5.3%?)


同比 中位价跌 3.7%,均价跌8.1%,但地产局自定的指标价上升5.3% ???


http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20201204.pdf

欧洲传染源...

法国,希腊周末大选后,人民反对Austerity (预算紧缩政策) 的声音被清楚地听见了。
大傻过去半年来不断呼吁,欧洲经济风暴尚未结束 (其实好戏还没上场)。  希腊,意大利,西班牙,葡萄牙,甚至法国, 德国的经济状况,将对欧盟的未来造成进一步的威胁。

传染源渐渐扩散...

Saturday 5 May 2012

5月1-4日 销售记录

5月4日大温地区销售记录
新上市: 337 
成交量: 77

_________________________
5月1-4日 销售记录 (2012 vs 2011)
新上市: 1401 vs 1294 (+8%)
成交量: 527 vs 683 (-23%)

Thursday 3 May 2012

澳洲经济泡沫为近代史上最大, 即将"硬着陆"

加拿大经济与澳洲极其相似。两者皆为原料/能源输出国,已过度依赖过去几年中国的信贷泡沫。
加拿大的经济可能将步上澳洲的后尘?

Australia the most ‘obvious’ bubble in 30 years, says economist
 May 3, 2012 – 10:37 AM

As far as bubbles go, they don’t get more obvious than Australia, according to one economist and noted bear.
Albert Edwards, economist with Société Générale, put out a note on Thursday morning whose title says it all: “The biggest bubble in recent history is heading for the mother of all hard landings.”
Mr. Edwards cites Australia’s extreme reliance on the Chinese economy as the foundation for the current bubble. After all, Australia, a global heavyweight in mining, is dependent on the global commodity boom that China has largely helped fuel over the last decade.
“All we have in Australia, at its simplest, is a credit bubble built upon a commodity boom dependent for its sustenance on an even greater credit bubble in China,” he said.

4月表现最差的区域 (独立屋)



1。4月 Van West 独立屋 
成交量 = 130 
较去年 = 214 大跌 39% 
较上月 = 152 下跌 14%

新上市 = 395
较去年 = 358 上升 10% 
较上月 = 336 上升 18%

2。4月 West Van 独立屋 
成交量 = 83 
较去年 = 141 大跌 41% 
较上月 = 78 上升 6%

新上市 = 184
较去年 = 200 下跌 8% 
较上月 = 158 上升 16%

3。4月 Burnaby 独立屋 
成交量 = 94
较去年 = 150 大跌 37% 
较上月 = 95 下跌 1%

新上市 = 246
较去年 = 193 上升 27% 
较上月 = 210 上升 17%

4。4月 Coquitlam 独立屋
成交量 = 119 
较去年 = 154 下跌 23% 
较上月 = 143 下跌 17%

新上市 = 210
较去年 = 214 下跌 2% 
较上月 = 225 下跌 7%

5。4月 Van East 独立屋 
成交量 = 135 
较去年 = 171 下跌 21% 
较上月 = 155 下跌 13%

新上市 = 270
较去年 = 271 下跌 0% 
较上月 = 291 下跌 7%

6。4月 Richmond 独立屋 
成交量 = 114 
较去年 = 143 下跌 20% 
较上月 = 104 上升 10%

新上市 = 350
较去年 = 408 下跌 14% 
较上月 = 326 上升 7%