Wednesday, 3 October 2012

Financial Post: "房市开始明显下跌,地产业界开始仓促地寻找借口"

As housing market slows, industry scrambles to paint positive picture
Garry Marr | Oct 3, 2012 6:42 PM

Organized real estate is unable, it seems, to admit the glory days may be behind it.

看来,地产业界无法轻易地承认 以往的辉煌已经成为过去式。

Sales plummet in major markets and the industry comes up with a new explanation for the decline, draping its comments with a sense that everything is just fine. The excuses are piling up.
在各大地产区域,成交量已开始大幅缩减。 地产业界开始寻找借口来掩饰这个现实, 继续对大众宣传一切还是美好的。

Ignore what they are saying. Sales are plummeting in Toronto and Vancouver
我们必须不理会这些宣传。 事实是,大温大多成交量已开始急速下跌。

The normal course in any cycle is for sales to correct first and then for prices to follow, he adds. “There is a time lag, that’s what happened in the United States. There’s a time lag as sellers hold on, refusing to drop their asking price, eventually they acknowledge the market has shifted under them.”
在任何一个房市周期,我们会先见到成交量收缩,接着才会见到价位下跌。 这两者之间有一个时滞,如同最近美国的例子。

根据大温这几年来的数据而言,从房市步入买方市场 (房源滞销量大于7个月) 至 地产局指标价/中位价等等明显下调,之间的时滞约为小于2个月。

9月底大温滞销量从10.7个月恶化至12.1个月, 若要做短期预测,年底前房价 (地产局指标价,中位价等等)会继续下滑。

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