12月30日 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 43
新上市单位: 43
___________________________________
12月1-30日 (2011) 大温地区 住宅单位
新上市单位: 1611
售出单位: 1630
售出/新上市 比例: 101%
12月1-30日 (2010) 大温地区 住宅单位
月底总新上市单位: 1699
月底总售出单位: 1899
月底售出/新上市 比例: 112%
看来今年12月成交量比去年下降14%, 比2009年下降35%, 是十年来第二低
新上市量看来比去年12月下降5%。[售出/新上市]比例看来比去年下跌约11%。
* 本人数据与地产局官方数据可能有小小误差 (通常是高估地产局数据 by 0-5%) - 官方数据将在下周公布。届时我在贴上来讨论。
___________________________________
历年来12月大温地区销售记录:
年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2001 2394/1856 - 129%
2002 2205/1895 - 116%
2003 2434/2301 - 106%
2004 2065/1764 - 117%
2005 2332/1735 - 134%
2006 1686/1524 - 111%
2007 1897/1695 - 112%
2008 924/1550 - 60%
2009 2515/2153 - 117%
2010 1899/1699 - 112%
换句话说,历年的12月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有11-12个售出
___________________________________
历年12月底总房源:
2005 7500
2006 10000
2007 9500
2008 15193
2009 8939
2010 11000
根据 2011-11月底及12月1-23日销售数据,预测今年年底总房源将达到 12000-12500, 是近年来第二高的年末剩余房源。 2012年初的房源将比2011年初增加约10-12%
Saturday, 31 December 2011
Thursday, 29 December 2011
BMO 预测2012年多伦多及大温地区房市将冷却
BMO 预测2012年多伦多及大温地区房市将冷却
Toronto housing market headed for cool down, BMO predicts
Wed Dec 28 2011
Vancouver’s hot housing market is headed for a cool down in 2012. So is Toronto’s.
With GDP growth of just 2 per cent next year, slowing job growth and record-high household debt makes it highly unlikely that we’ll see a repeat of this year’s “surprisingly perky performance” of Canada’s housing market overall, warns Porter in a report.
Leading the way was Vancouver where house sales were up 16 per cent in November 2011 over a year earlier as the seasonally adjusted price of a house hit $756,512.
“That won’t be repeated next year there are already clear signs that sales are dipping, and price increases are starting to ebb,” says the report.
“Toronto has seized the mantle of hottest major market in recent months, and appears to be at some risk of overheating.”
In second-place Toronto, home sales were up 9.7 per cent in November over a year earlier as the average house price surpassed $480,000 for the first time.
http://www.thestar.com/business/arti...n-bmo-predicts
http://van.worldjournal.com/view/ful...=bc_bull_left1
Toronto housing market headed for cool down, BMO predicts
Wed Dec 28 2011
Vancouver’s hot housing market is headed for a cool down in 2012. So is Toronto’s.
With GDP growth of just 2 per cent next year, slowing job growth and record-high household debt makes it highly unlikely that we’ll see a repeat of this year’s “surprisingly perky performance” of Canada’s housing market overall, warns Porter in a report.
Leading the way was Vancouver where house sales were up 16 per cent in November 2011 over a year earlier as the seasonally adjusted price of a house hit $756,512.
“That won’t be repeated next year there are already clear signs that sales are dipping, and price increases are starting to ebb,” says the report.
“Toronto has seized the mantle of hottest major market in recent months, and appears to be at some risk of overheating.”
In second-place Toronto, home sales were up 9.7 per cent in November over a year earlier as the average house price surpassed $480,000 for the first time.
http://www.thestar.com/business/arti...n-bmo-predicts
http://van.worldjournal.com/view/ful...=bc_bull_left1
Friday, 23 December 2011
12月下旬大温房市销售记录与展望
12月23日 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 50
新上市单位: 47
___________________________________
12月1-23日 (2011) 大温地区 住宅单位
新上市单位: 1468
平均每工作日新上市单位: 86
售出单位: 1443
平均每工作日售出单位: 85
售出/新上市 比例: 98%
预测月底总新上市单位: 1550-1650
预测月底总售出单位: 1600-1700
12月1-23日 (2010) 大温地区 住宅单位
新上市单位: 1550
平均每工作日新上市单位: 91
售出单位: 1634
平均每工作日售出单位: 96
售出/新上市 比例: 105%
月底总新上市单位: 1699
月底总售出单位: 1899
月底售出/新上市 比例: 112%
预计今年12月成交量比去年下降12%, 比2009年下降35%， 是十年来第二低
新上市量预计比去年12月下降5-7%。[售出/新上市]比例将比去年下跌约7%。
评论: 大温房市继续显现早期供过于求的现象，处于早期买方市场 （*买方市场只是说选择与议价空间增加，不表示现在是买房时机） 。 民众对个人及大局经济前景忧心。 房价向下的压力继续增加。 12月新上市单位稍小于去年，大傻预计大部分今年底考虑卖房的人将等到明年初上市，届时大有可能见到新上市量远超过2011年初10-20%以上的数目。
大傻再过几日将发表2012年大温房市走向预测。
___________________________________
历年来12月大温地区销售记录:
年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2001 2394/1856 - 129%
2002 2205/1895 - 116%
2003 2434/2301 - 106%
2004 2065/1764 - 117%
2005 2332/1735 - 134%
2006 1686/1524 - 111%
2007 1897/1695 - 112%
2008 924/1550 - 60%
2009 2515/2153 - 117%
2010 1899/1699 - 112%
换句话说,历年的12月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有11-12个售出
___________________________________
历年12月底总房源:
2005 7500
2006 10000
2007 9500
2008 15193
2009 8939
2010 11000
根据 2011-11月底及12月1-23日销售数据,预测今年年底总房源将达到 12000-12500, 是近年来第二高的年末剩余房源。 2012年初的房源将比2011年初增加约10-12%
售出单位: 50
新上市单位: 47
___________________________________
12月1-23日 (2011) 大温地区 住宅单位
新上市单位: 1468
平均每工作日新上市单位: 86
售出单位: 1443
平均每工作日售出单位: 85
售出/新上市 比例: 98%
预测月底总新上市单位: 1550-1650
预测月底总售出单位: 1600-1700
12月1-23日 (2010) 大温地区 住宅单位
新上市单位: 1550
平均每工作日新上市单位: 91
售出单位: 1634
平均每工作日售出单位: 96
售出/新上市 比例: 105%
月底总新上市单位: 1699
月底总售出单位: 1899
月底售出/新上市 比例: 112%
预计今年12月成交量比去年下降12%, 比2009年下降35%， 是十年来第二低
新上市量预计比去年12月下降5-7%。[售出/新上市]比例将比去年下跌约7%。
评论: 大温房市继续显现早期供过于求的现象，处于早期买方市场 （*买方市场只是说选择与议价空间增加，不表示现在是买房时机） 。 民众对个人及大局经济前景忧心。 房价向下的压力继续增加。 12月新上市单位稍小于去年，大傻预计大部分今年底考虑卖房的人将等到明年初上市，届时大有可能见到新上市量远超过2011年初10-20%以上的数目。
大傻再过几日将发表2012年大温房市走向预测。
___________________________________
历年来12月大温地区销售记录:
年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2001 2394/1856 - 129%
2002 2205/1895 - 116%
2003 2434/2301 - 106%
2004 2065/1764 - 117%
2005 2332/1735 - 134%
2006 1686/1524 - 111%
2007 1897/1695 - 112%
2008 924/1550 - 60%
2009 2515/2153 - 117%
2010 1899/1699 - 112%
换句话说,历年的12月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有11-12个售出
___________________________________
历年12月底总房源:
2005 7500
2006 10000
2007 9500
2008 15193
2009 8939
2010 11000
根据 2011-11月底及12月1-23日销售数据,预测今年年底总房源将达到 12000-12500, 是近年来第二高的年末剩余房源。 2012年初的房源将比2011年初增加约10-12%
IMF 呼吁加拿大政府管紧CMHC的风险承担度
IMF 今天都发表新闻，呼吁加拿大政府管紧CMHC (联邦房贷保险公司) 的风险承担度， 以免造成房市泡沫继续扩大。 现在CMHC的资产及杠杆程度是政府部门中唯一保密的, 而且CMHC也不受其他政府机构管辖。因为它属于一种 "crown corporation"， 所以它的资产/债务/杠杆程度都不算在政府的 balance sheet 里头。 但最近在媒体，舆论，及官方的压力下，有可能在数月内公开一部分目前秘密的数据。
IMF calls for review of CMHC risk management
Friday, Dec. 23, 2011 10:25AM
The International Monetary Fund is calling for a review of the rules that govern Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. to ensure there is sufficient oversight of the Crown corporation.
... IMF simply thinks the government should evaluate closely whether it’s appropriate for one of the country’s largest financial institutions to operate without formal oversight.
Critics such as the C.D. Howe Institute have long called for legislators to re-evaluate the system and consider spinning off, or even winding down, CMHC’s main mortgage business. The IMF’s report comes after Finance Minister Jim Flaherty made moves to enhance Ottawa’s authority earlier this year, suggesting the IMF believes those changes have not gone far enough.
“Strengthening oversight of the [CMHC] will be particularly important,” given Canada’s record levels of household debt and evidence that some cities are experiencing house-price bubbles, the IMF's executive board said in a separate statement.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle2281470/
有稍微研究加拿大房市的应该都很清楚，
加拿大的房市早已不是健康的自由市场， 而是加拿大政府经由 CMHC 联邦房贷保险公司一手捧起来的市场。 (CMHC 等于美国的Fannie Mae 房利美 及 Freddie Mac 房地美)
之前的40年0首付贷款政策 （包括现在还算极其宽松的30年5%首付房贷）都是政府介入，假象提高人民购买力， 经由CMHC承担应该是银行本身的贷款风险。
赚的钱是银行赚，亏的话是付税的老百姓承担， 银行何乐不为？
所以，你若要加拿大政府"不介入房市" 那第一步就是让CMHC减少对银行房贷的保险，让银行对自己的借贷负更多的责任，进而降低人民的杠杆程度及国家经济未来的风险。
IMF calls for review of CMHC risk management
Friday, Dec. 23, 2011 10:25AM
The International Monetary Fund is calling for a review of the rules that govern Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. to ensure there is sufficient oversight of the Crown corporation.
... IMF simply thinks the government should evaluate closely whether it’s appropriate for one of the country’s largest financial institutions to operate without formal oversight.
Critics such as the C.D. Howe Institute have long called for legislators to re-evaluate the system and consider spinning off, or even winding down, CMHC’s main mortgage business. The IMF’s report comes after Finance Minister Jim Flaherty made moves to enhance Ottawa’s authority earlier this year, suggesting the IMF believes those changes have not gone far enough.
“Strengthening oversight of the [CMHC] will be particularly important,” given Canada’s record levels of household debt and evidence that some cities are experiencing house-price bubbles, the IMF's executive board said in a separate statement.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle2281470/
有稍微研究加拿大房市的应该都很清楚，
加拿大的房市早已不是健康的自由市场， 而是加拿大政府经由 CMHC 联邦房贷保险公司一手捧起来的市场。 (CMHC 等于美国的Fannie Mae 房利美 及 Freddie Mac 房地美)
之前的40年0首付贷款政策 （包括现在还算极其宽松的30年5%首付房贷）都是政府介入，假象提高人民购买力， 经由CMHC承担应该是银行本身的贷款风险。
赚的钱是银行赚，亏的话是付税的老百姓承担， 银行何乐不为？
所以，你若要加拿大政府"不介入房市" 那第一步就是让CMHC减少对银行房贷的保险，让银行对自己的借贷负更多的责任，进而降低人民的杠杆程度及国家经济未来的风险。
Thursday, 22 December 2011
加拿大消费者信心指数，两年半来最低。 BC 跌幅名列前茅，连跌3个月
12月22日新闻：加拿大消费者信心指数，两年半来最低。 BC 跌幅名列前茅，连跌3个月
"消费者信心指数与6个月后的消费经济数据有极紧密的关系"
- 这数据代表加拿大，尤其是BC省的经济将面临严重打击。 有与08-09年的大衰退相当的可能。
问题是，现在的利率已经没什么好降了。
The Ottawa think-tank said Thursday its Index of Consumer Confidence posted a 6.5-point drop in December, bringing 2011 to a "disappointing" close and signalling that further belt-tightening by Canadians is in store.
"We've always seen a link between the consumer confidence level today and consumer spending six months down the road," said board economist Todd Crawford in an interview.
Consumer confidences is down nearly 10 per cent — a drop of 6.5 points to 69.9 on an index where the level in 2002 is bench-marked at 100 — according to the Conference Board of Canada. This is the lowest level since the depth of the recession in mid 2009.
British Columbia alone dropped 10.4 points.
British Columbia registered a third consecutive monthly decline, and confidence also dropped in Ontario and Quebec, the heart of Canada's manufacturing sector.
IMF 警告，加拿大房市过热。 政府应考虑采取进一步缩紧房贷措施
IMF 在12月22日的最新报告再次警告， 加拿大房市过热，至少高估10%。
IMF 建议财政部长考虑进一步缩紧房贷，譬如减少最长偿还期或是增加最低首付。
大傻个人认为，财政部长在2012年初再一次缩紧房贷的几率现在上升至70%。
Canada’s average home price is about 10 per cent higher than models suggest it should be, posing a “vulnerability” to the country’s economic outlook because a drop in prices would be a blow to already highly indebted consumers, the International Monetary Fund warns in a new report.
...
With household debt at about 150 per cent of disposable income, the domestic spending boom that helped Canada weather the financial crisis already is at its limits.
...
Policy makers should continue to watch developments in the mortgage market closely, the fund says. Lending for homes has slowed, but still is a growing at a “robust” pace of almost 7 per cent, the report says. Finance Minister should be ready to take stops to slow borrowing further if home lending continues to expand excessively, such as larger down-payment requirements for mortgages and demanding lower debt service-to-income ratios, the IMF says.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/imf-casts-nervous-eye-on-canadian-housing-market/article2280838/
...
With household debt at about 150 per cent of disposable income, the domestic spending boom that helped Canada weather the financial crisis already is at its limits.
...
Policy makers should continue to watch developments in the mortgage market closely, the fund says. Lending for homes has slowed, but still is a growing at a “robust” pace of almost 7 per cent, the report says. Finance Minister should be ready to take stops to slow borrowing further if home lending continues to expand excessively, such as larger down-payment requirements for mortgages and demanding lower debt service-to-income ratios, the IMF says.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/imf-casts-nervous-eye-on-canadian-housing-market/article2280838/
Monday, 19 December 2011
回复 Iask.ca 房产版主 Horse Dragoon 马龙 的 "2012大多伦多房价预测"
RE: http://forum.iask.ca/showthread.php?p=7600412#post7600412
Horse Dragoon 提出八点大多房市在2012年上涨7-8%的理由， 大傻现在来一一分析:
1. 2010年的涨幅( +9.1%) 和2011年的涨幅(+ 8.1%)
- 过去的收益不能用来预测未来 (刻舟求剑); 有如美国人用2004， 2005的涨幅来预测2006 ...
2. 移民幅度不变, 人口刚需,
- 第一波战后婴儿潮已达66岁，退休老化的人口将逐步将房产兑现养老金。
- 移民难度增加，对非英语国家移民申请者不利
- 移民政策严格化，如：省提名移民将更难违约搬迁他省，等等
3. 央行利率和贷款利率维持低位或再降低,
- 08年底至09年初， Prime rate 从4.75%跌到2.25% (-2.50%). 现在仅回升至 3%， 可以下降的空间不足。
- 浮动利率discount 从今年秋大幅缩水，从 P-0.9% 降到 P-0.1%, 等于升息0.8%。
- 央行总裁 Carney 再次警告国民负债过重，尤其房贷债务。多家银行陆续建议政府再次缩紧房贷， 拉高买房门槛 (TD 12月14日新闻； RBC 12月19日新闻).
4. 通胀率,
- 通胀率若超过央行3%标准，Prime rate 将被调高。
5. 加国经济是七大工业国中最好的,
- 加国家庭负债率已超越美国房市泡沫顶点， 傲视七大工业国
- TD bank: 2012加国经济展望低迷
- 安省2012经济前景被Moody's 降级为 “负面”
- 加拿大人民所得开始负成长
6. 土地转让税减25%
- 那是多少？ 省个 $1000? $2000?
7. 5大银行的稳健和赢利,
- 银行房贷利润率降低， 所以继续大幅降低浮动利率discount
- 银行在2012年的全球经济衰退下，将求降低风险，提高贷款门槛 (或降低贷款量)
- 5大银行今年开始裁员/downsize : RBC , BMO; 明年更不看好。
8. 房市无泡沫, 每年涨幅小于10%.
- Bank of America Merrill Lynch 认定加拿大房市毫无疑问在泡沫中 (12月19日)
- 当通膨在2-3%， 而房市涨幅在8%, 9% .....
- 加拿大房价vs租金比达到史上最高，领先世界
- 加拿大房价vs收入比达到史上最高
____________________________________________
预测加国2012年房价下跌的银行/组织:
1. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (12月19日):
Canadian home prices are likely to drop 5% in the first half of 2012 as the economy slows and could slide as much as 10%
2. BC 地产协会 (预测BC) (11月8日)
decline 2.5 per cent to $550,500 in 2012.
3. RBC
4. TD
Horse Dragoon 提出八点大多房市在2012年上涨7-8%的理由， 大傻现在来一一分析:
1. 2010年的涨幅( +9.1%) 和2011年的涨幅(+ 8.1%)
- 过去的收益不能用来预测未来 (刻舟求剑); 有如美国人用2004， 2005的涨幅来预测2006 ...
2. 移民幅度不变, 人口刚需,
- 第一波战后婴儿潮已达66岁，退休老化的人口将逐步将房产兑现养老金。
- 移民难度增加，对非英语国家移民申请者不利
- 移民政策严格化，如：省提名移民将更难违约搬迁他省，等等
3. 央行利率和贷款利率维持低位或再降低,
- 08年底至09年初， Prime rate 从4.75%跌到2.25% (-2.50%). 现在仅回升至 3%， 可以下降的空间不足。
- 浮动利率discount 从今年秋大幅缩水，从 P-0.9% 降到 P-0.1%, 等于升息0.8%。
- 央行总裁 Carney 再次警告国民负债过重，尤其房贷债务。多家银行陆续建议政府再次缩紧房贷， 拉高买房门槛 (TD 12月14日新闻； RBC 12月19日新闻).
4. 通胀率,
- 通胀率若超过央行3%标准，Prime rate 将被调高。
5. 加国经济是七大工业国中最好的,
- 加国家庭负债率已超越美国房市泡沫顶点， 傲视七大工业国
- TD bank: 2012加国经济展望低迷
- 安省2012经济前景被Moody's 降级为 “负面”
- 加拿大人民所得开始负成长
6. 土地转让税减25%
- 那是多少？ 省个 $1000? $2000?
7. 5大银行的稳健和赢利,
- 银行房贷利润率降低， 所以继续大幅降低浮动利率discount
- 银行在2012年的全球经济衰退下，将求降低风险，提高贷款门槛 (或降低贷款量)
- 5大银行今年开始裁员/downsize : RBC , BMO; 明年更不看好。
8. 房市无泡沫, 每年涨幅小于10%.
- Bank of America Merrill Lynch 认定加拿大房市毫无疑问在泡沫中 (12月19日)
- 当通膨在2-3%， 而房市涨幅在8%, 9% .....
- 加拿大房价vs租金比达到史上最高，领先世界
- 加拿大房价vs收入比达到史上最高
____________________________________________
预测加国2012年房价下跌的银行/组织:
1. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (12月19日):
Canadian home prices are likely to drop 5% in the first half of 2012 as the economy slows and could slide as much as 10%
2. BC 地产协会 (预测BC) (11月8日)
decline 2.5 per cent to $550,500 in 2012.
3. RBC
4. TD
BC 政府 12月13日通过Strata新规定: 强迫建立"折旧报告" - Strata fee 看涨
折旧报告 = mandatory depreciation reports
[New regulations require strata to think long term]
A depreciation report is basically a planning tool used by property owners (the strata corporation) to clearly understand what the strata is responsible for maintaining and repairing as part of its building system (a physical component inventory); the age of the building system; the projected life expectancy; when it should be planned for renewal; what it will cost when the time comes to renew the component; and how the strata will pay for it.
The new regulations provide a two-year window for strata corporations to comply with the mandatory requirement - by Dec. 13, 2013.
So how does this affect our strata corporations? Every non-exempted strata corporation will be required to commission a depreciation report by Dec. 13, 2013. They will also be required - by March 1, 2012 - to disclose on the amended Form B information certificate, whether they have a depreciation report, and they must attach a copy of the report if one exists.
Unless your strata corporation is exempt, you will be required to retain the services of a person who is qualified to create the report. So for many strata corporations, the first step is to send out requests for proposals. The requests should stipulate that the report must meet the requirements of the regulations and establish the total cost for all services, including third-party inspections and surveys.
The regulations require that the person who is providing the report include his or her qualifications and indicate whether he or she is covered by errors and omissions insurance, and describe any relationship between the individual and the strata corporation. (A 'person' also implies a consultant or company providing the report, such as an engineering firm.)
Creating an inventory of what your strata has to include will require an on-site inspection and an inventory list of the components that are common property, limited common property or items included in the strata bylawsthat the strata corporation has to maintain and repair. This includes the building's structure, exteriors including roofs, roof decks, doors, windows, skylights, electrical, heating, plumbing, common amenities and facilities, parking and roadways, utilities including water and sewage, landscaping, interior finishing, green building components.
The period of service over 30 years will include both items that have to be replaced, such as roofs, and those maintenance obligations that are not part of the annual operating budget, such as the repainting of the siding every five to 10 years. The final report will also have to include a financial forecasting sector - essentially, how the strata is going to pay for this work. Is it going to increase fees to build up the contingency reserve fund, loans or planning on special levies as necessary, or will it consider a combination of funding options?
http://www.theprovince.com/technolog...790/story.html
http://www.housing.gov.bc.ca/strata/regs/OIC-SPA.pdf
[New regulations require strata to think long term]
A depreciation report is basically a planning tool used by property owners (the strata corporation) to clearly understand what the strata is responsible for maintaining and repairing as part of its building system (a physical component inventory); the age of the building system; the projected life expectancy; when it should be planned for renewal; what it will cost when the time comes to renew the component; and how the strata will pay for it.
The new regulations provide a two-year window for strata corporations to comply with the mandatory requirement - by Dec. 13, 2013.
So how does this affect our strata corporations? Every non-exempted strata corporation will be required to commission a depreciation report by Dec. 13, 2013. They will also be required - by March 1, 2012 - to disclose on the amended Form B information certificate, whether they have a depreciation report, and they must attach a copy of the report if one exists.
Unless your strata corporation is exempt, you will be required to retain the services of a person who is qualified to create the report. So for many strata corporations, the first step is to send out requests for proposals. The requests should stipulate that the report must meet the requirements of the regulations and establish the total cost for all services, including third-party inspections and surveys.
The regulations require that the person who is providing the report include his or her qualifications and indicate whether he or she is covered by errors and omissions insurance, and describe any relationship between the individual and the strata corporation. (A 'person' also implies a consultant or company providing the report, such as an engineering firm.)
Creating an inventory of what your strata has to include will require an on-site inspection and an inventory list of the components that are common property, limited common property or items included in the strata bylawsthat the strata corporation has to maintain and repair. This includes the building's structure, exteriors including roofs, roof decks, doors, windows, skylights, electrical, heating, plumbing, common amenities and facilities, parking and roadways, utilities including water and sewage, landscaping, interior finishing, green building components.
The period of service over 30 years will include both items that have to be replaced, such as roofs, and those maintenance obligations that are not part of the annual operating budget, such as the repainting of the siding every five to 10 years. The final report will also have to include a financial forecasting sector - essentially, how the strata is going to pay for this work. Is it going to increase fees to build up the contingency reserve fund, loans or planning on special levies as necessary, or will it consider a combination of funding options?
http://www.theprovince.com/technolog...790/story.html
http://www.housing.gov.bc.ca/strata/regs/OIC-SPA.pdf
Saturday, 17 December 2011
12月中大温房市销售记录与展望
12月1-16日 (2011) 大温地区 住宅单位
新上市单位: 1171
平均每工作日新上市单位: 96
售出单位: 1045
平均每工作日售出单位: 87
售出/新上市 比例: 89%
预测月底总新上市单位: 1550-1650
预测月底总售出单位: 1600-1700
12月1-16日 (2010) 大温地区 住宅单位
新上市单位: 1243
平均每工作日新上市单位: 104
售出单位: 1188
平均每工作日售出单位: 99
售出/新上市 比例: 96%
月底总新上市单位: 1699
月底总售出单位: 1899
月底售出/新上市 比例: 112%
预计今年12月售出量比去年下降11-13%, 而新上市量预计比去年12月下降5-7%。[售出/新上市]比例将比去年下跌约6%。
___________________________________
历年来12月大温地区销售记录:
年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2001 2394/1856 - 129%
2002 2205/1895 - 116%
2003 2434/2301 - 106%
2004 2065/1764 - 117%
2005 2332/1735 - 134%
2006 1686/1524 - 111%
2007 1897/1695 - 112%
2008 924/1550 - 60%
2009 2515/2153 - 117%
2010 1899/1699 - 112%
换句话说,历年的12月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有11-12个售出
___________________________________
历年12月底总房源:
2005 7500
2006 10000
2007 9500
2008 15193
2009 8939
2010 11000
根据 2011-11月底及12月1-16日销售数据,预测今年年底总房源将达到 12000-12500, 是近年来第二高的年末剩余房源。 2012年初的房源将比2011年初增加约10-12%
新上市单位: 1171
平均每工作日新上市单位: 96
售出单位: 1045
平均每工作日售出单位: 87
售出/新上市 比例: 89%
预测月底总新上市单位: 1550-1650
预测月底总售出单位: 1600-1700
12月1-16日 (2010) 大温地区 住宅单位
新上市单位: 1243
平均每工作日新上市单位: 104
售出单位: 1188
平均每工作日售出单位: 99
售出/新上市 比例: 96%
月底总新上市单位: 1699
月底总售出单位: 1899
月底售出/新上市 比例: 112%
预计今年12月售出量比去年下降11-13%, 而新上市量预计比去年12月下降5-7%。[售出/新上市]比例将比去年下跌约6%。
___________________________________
历年来12月大温地区销售记录:
年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2001 2394/1856 - 129%
2002 2205/1895 - 116%
2003 2434/2301 - 106%
2004 2065/1764 - 117%
2005 2332/1735 - 134%
2006 1686/1524 - 111%
2007 1897/1695 - 112%
2008 924/1550 - 60%
2009 2515/2153 - 117%
2010 1899/1699 - 112%
换句话说,历年的12月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有11-12个售出
___________________________________
历年12月底总房源:
2005 7500
2006 10000
2007 9500
2008 15193
2009 8939
2010 11000
根据 2011-11月底及12月1-16日销售数据,预测今年年底总房源将达到 12000-12500, 是近年来第二高的年末剩余房源。 2012年初的房源将比2011年初增加约10-12%
Thursday, 15 December 2011
TD Bank CEO Ed Clark 建议加拿大政府再次缩紧房贷政策
TD Bank CEO Ed Clark 建议加拿大政府再次缩紧房贷政策。
12月14日 Globe & Mail
Mr Clark 认为把最长偿还期从30年进一步缩减为25年， 是可能的选择。
Less than a year after Ottawa forced the banking sector to cut back on risky mortgage lending, the head of one of Canada’s biggest banks says the federal government should go even further.
Ed Clark, the chief executive officer of Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T72.40-0.66-0.90%), said in an interview that he believes Ottawa could tighten the rules on housing loans more than it already has, without hurting the economy or putting the housing market at risk.
Mr. Clark believes cutting the maximum length on federally insured mortgages to 25 years, from 30 years, would be a good step to slow rising household debt, which hit a new record this week, surpassing that of the United States and Britain.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/mortgage-rules-should-be-stricter-td-chief-says/article2271588/
Greater Fool 个人认为，明年春季政府再次缩紧房贷的可能性为65%。
Tuesday, 13 December 2011
多伦多资深realtor 在CityTV 预测明年房价将开始大跌，已套现所有房产，改为租房
有25年经验的多伦多资深realtor Raza Kizilbash， 12月12日 在CityTV 预测明年开始房价将大跌， 跌幅他预测为25%.
他已套现所有房产，改为租房。
"This is a catastrophe about to happen, that's why I'm worried that people who have properties, they're going to lose big time."
Raza has a number of listings here in the beach area, he's starting to notice more and more "New Price" (Reduced Price) signs.
He had to drop one property from 575k to 450k in order to sell it.
December 12, 2011
CityNews anchor and reporter Tom Hayes talks to one long-time Toronto real-estate agent who is forecasting a stormy future when it comes to housing prices.
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/videos/174666
他已套现所有房产，改为租房。
"This is a catastrophe about to happen, that's why I'm worried that people who have properties, they're going to lose big time."
Raza has a number of listings here in the beach area, he's starting to notice more and more "New Price" (Reduced Price) signs.
He had to drop one property from 575k to 450k in order to sell it.
December 12, 2011
CityNews anchor and reporter Tom Hayes talks to one long-time Toronto real-estate agent who is forecasting a stormy future when it comes to housing prices.
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/videos/174666
Monday, 12 December 2011
Carney 在为明年紧缩房贷新政铺路?
加拿大央行总裁再次警告，加拿大人民负债过重，不顾自己能力地花钱- 尤其是花在房地产上的投资。
大傻个人认为，明年年初政府再次推出紧缩房贷新政的几率为60%
[Canadians ‘consuming’ beyond means: Mark Carney]
Dec 12, 2011 10:26 PM ET
- Carney’s on a streak of household-debt-warning speeches of late. Is he paving the way for mortgage rule changes in 2012??
Dec 12, 2011 10:26 PM ET
- Carney’s on a streak of household-debt-warning speeches of late. Is he paving the way for mortgage rule changes in 2012??
“…Carney said that Canada’s relatively low public and business debt present a unique opportunity to build a stronger economy for the future.
But he cautioned once again that Canadian households need to end their spending splurge, particularly on homes, now that their debt levels have reached 149 per cent of income, a higher figure than in the U.S. or Britain.”
Saturday, 10 December 2011
Scotiabank 缩紧投资类房产按揭贷款
主要三项改变：
1.投资房总数上限为5处房产（含在其他银行有贷款的物业）
2.只能申请5年封闭式按揭贷款（含浮动和固定利率）
3.利率高于自住房按揭贷款
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2011/12/whats-behind-scotias-rental-changes.html#more
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个人认为，继Scotiabank 之后，我们将在数月内见到加拿大其他主要银行跟进，拉高买房(尤其是投资房) 的门槛，以求减低银行本身在房价下跌情况下的风险。
1.投资房总数上限为5处房产（含在其他银行有贷款的物业）
2.只能申请5年封闭式按揭贷款（含浮动和固定利率）
3.利率高于自住房按揭贷款
[Scotiabank tightens mortgage lending rules for rental units]
December 09, 2011
December 09, 2011
Scotiabank has long been an investor-friendly lender. But recently, Scotia Mortgage Authority (SMA) made its rental financing program notably more restrictive.
SMA now:
1. Limits borrowers to five rental properties, including those financed elsewhere (there was no official limit previously)
2. Restricts rental mortgages to 5-year closed terms (fixed or variable)
3. Upcharges the rate for rental deals (whereas before it didn’t)
On a positive note, SMA says it has loosened its net worth requirement on rental applications (which is now 10% of each property’s value, up to $50,000 per property).
….
Apart from the reasoning above, Calum says the changes may also be risk-driven.
Apart from the reasoning above, Calum says the changes may also be risk-driven.
“There is a growing concern that there is a potentially unhealthy demand for residential real estate investments,” he said.
“The changes signal a clear indication that Scotiabank has a decreased appetite for real estate investors who have significant exposure to the residential real estate investment market.”
“People will generally allow themselves to become delinquent on (default on) investment property mortgage payments before they will allow themselves to default on their principal residence mortgage payments—for the simple reason that people put priority on basic shelter needs.”
“Clearly having one of the biggest mortgage lenders in the country tightening up credit to this group is not good news for the segment in the short term.”
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2011/12/whats-behind-scotias-rental-changes.html#more
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个人认为，继Scotiabank 之后，我们将在数月内见到加拿大其他主要银行跟进，拉高买房(尤其是投资房) 的门槛，以求减低银行本身在房价下跌情况下的风险。
Thursday, 8 December 2011
有关房贷政策的再次紧缩
Europe's debt crisis a risk here, Bank of Canada warns
Record household debt expected to rise
A major area of concern for the bank is the high level of indebtedness of Canadian households that have taken advantage of the low interest rate environment of the past several years to buy homes, cars and other items on credit.
Although household debt-to-income is now at a record 149 per cent, higher than even in the United States, the bank fully expects that ratio to increase further.
That leaves Canadian households vulnerable to a shock, such as a sharp rise in unemployment caused by an economic slowdown or a significant decline in house prices, which would sap household wealth.
The bank regards the situation serious enough that it advises the government to "continuously assess the risks arising from the financial situation of the household sector."
Recently, the International Monetary Fund said Ottawa may need to again revisit eligibility rules for obtaining mortgages, even though the federal government have tightened conditions three times in as many years.
The bank doesn't go that far, but notes that after March — the last time mortgage requirements were stiffened — mortgage credit slowed, but has since picked up.
---------------> 个人认为2012年初政府再次实施房贷紧缩政策的几率为 >50%
Tuesday, 6 December 2011
Monday, 5 December 2011
Richmond Nov 2011 graphs
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| 独立屋均价及中位价 |
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| 非独立屋均价及中位价 |
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| 公寓均价及中位价 11月底列治文总销售额 (以百万计) 列治文独立屋 - 与去年及09年相比,大跌 1/3  列治文非独立屋 - 与去年持平  列治文公寓 - 比去年大跌40%, 比09年大跌50%  |
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