Thursday 14 June 2012

“原油价格有下跌50%的可能 - 若欧洲金融风暴严重恶化”

GF 半年前就赌能源价会下跌了。 手上的一点点 ERY (3倍放空能源价的指数基金)三个月来升了30%。
当然,GF 认为ECB 欧盟央行会作一定的稳定市场手段,但是是否ECB 有足够能力稳定市场,只有他们自己知道了。  
若明日(周五)原油价格上涨,或是欧洲股市上涨,则GF 可能会考虑多购入一些放空型指数基金 (bear ETF) 。  GF 将继续看空中短期欧洲/世界经济。

当然,这些 leveraged ETF 风险极高,GF买入他们的目的只是玩玩/Hedge 一下而已。 GF手上大部分 (80% 以上) 的资产还是保持于现金/现金同等的投资。 


Oil price could fall to $50, Credit Suisse predicts
 Jun 14, 2012 8:38 PM ET
A major Swiss bank says the European debt crisis has the potential to push the price of oil down to $50 US per barrel.
In a research note Wednesday, Credit Suisse says its "worst case scenario" for the crude market and global economy would be a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, only this time predicated on European sovereign debt problems.
Should that happen, the drop-off in demand for oil would quickly push the price of a barrel of oil to $50 and keep it below $80 for the next two years after that.
It's believed that the break-even point for most oil operations in Alberta's Athabasca oilsands basin is roughly $60 per barrel.

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