Thursday, 15 March 2012

TD Bank 建议政府及早打房

TD Bank 将在明日(3月16日)发表一份报告,建议联邦政府尽快制定下一轮房贷缩紧政策, 包括以下4点建议
1. 缩短最长偿还期至25年
2. 增加最低首付至7%
3. 要求所有申请房贷者必须证明在利息升至5.5%的情况下还能还债。
4. 要求所有HELOC申请者能证明能在20年内还完债务 - 进而减少申请者能借出的HELOC房屋净资产抵押贷款。 

* TD会建议以上4点建议不同时,或太接近实施。

完全是大傻意料中的打房项目 - 见2月底大傻作的预测:
GF认为,3月份财长Flaherty 将实施至少一项打房政策。

1. 再次缩短最长偿还期,从30年降至25年
2. 缩紧自雇/Stated Income 者的房贷+/-HELOC 借款额度
3. 再次减少Re-finance 时可借的数量,从85%降至80% (借此控制HELOC贷款量)
4. 要求银行提高自身的资本要求,提高流动资金,及减低杠杆比率 (这可能部分已经暗中实施)
5. 升高最低首付,从5% 增至7.5% 或 10%
6. 调高CMHC房贷保险的保费
7. 设置CMHC政府担保房贷的上限,譬如高过$800k 的房屋,政府不提供CMHC保险 (转由银行自行承担)
8. 强迫银行承担一部分贷款风险 (譬如令银行承担5%的房贷损失,而CMHC承担95% ) 
Ottawa urged to take concrete steps to limit growing consumer debt
Mr. Alexander, chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, says the government, which has tightened mortgage rules three times since 2008, should step into the housing market again and gradually roll out a series of steps to ensure the risk doesn’t get worse.

“We want to ensure that the imbalance we have doesn’t get any bigger, so the economy over the medium term can weather the inevitable future adjustment in interest rates,” Mr. Alexander said in an interview. “If we incrementally lean against credit growth while we have low rates, it will be a better outcome for the economy.”

In a report he will release Friday, Mr. Alexander recommends four possible measures:
1. the maximum amortization period for government-insured mortgages should be cut to 25 years

2. anyone applying for a mortgage should be required to show they could still afford it if the rate rose to 5.5 per cent

3. lenders should assess the ability of anyone applying for a home-equity line of credit to pay it off within 20 years.

4. minimum down payment for a government-insured mortgage should be raised to 7 per cent from the current 5 per cent, Mr. Alexander said.

However, he is careful to note that the government should not attempt to implement all of the changes at once, or even closely spaced, for fear of causing the very economic damage that policy makers are trying to prevent.

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