Sunday, 14 October 2012

列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示:大温卖家开始夺门而出,长期跌幅已开始

James Wong, 即两个月前预测Richmond独立屋3年内下跌30%, 及上个月发表 "列治文跌幅加大,将持续几年,越早卖亏越少" 的列治文地产经纪, 今日再著作两篇文章。

Market sentiment has deteriorated further. Buyers prefer to stay on the sideline, waiting for home prices to fall further. The only way out for sellers who are determined to sell was to price their home more aggressively. Sellers who are taking deep cuts in reducing their selling prices are the ones likely to succeed in selling their homes.
市场信心继续恶化。 潜在买方继续在旁观望,看着房价继续下跌。真正急着要卖的卖方只有一个选择,就是以更大幅度砍下要价。 目前市场惟有砍的够深的卖方才有指望有买家青睐。
Richmond detached homes over $1,000,000 are not seeing much buying interest. With total active listings of 686 and average sale around 28 homes the past 3 months, there are 24.5 months supply of homes in the market. For detached homes over $1,500,000, there are currently 353 homes for sale. With an average past 3 months sale of 12 homes, this translates into 29 months supply of homes. The decline in housing sales and home prices in Richmond will take many years to play out.
列治文大于$1M 的独立屋继续不受买方青睐。其总房源为686,过去3个月平均每月成交28户,达到24.5个月的滞销。 列治文大于$1.5M 的独立屋表现继续差劲,总房源为353, 过去3个月平均每月成交12户,达到29个月的滞销。 列治文房市的跌幅将需要许多年才会跌到底。
Now with the housing market experiencing a huge drop in sales, large over-hang of supply and poor market sentiment, home price decline is inevitable.
During the 1995 to 2001 downturn, not only employment in the construction industry contracted, thousands of real estate agents quit the business.
目前成交量大跌,房源滞销极高, 房价的下跌是无可避免的事实。

We are now witnessing the unwinding of the housing market. It will take many years before owning a home makes sense again. Home prices are not going up now or holding. Instead, the housing market is coming down in values. The rush to exit the market will take its toll on sellers who bought their homes recently.
我们现在目睹的,是正在下跌中的大温房市。 我们还需要许多年才会见底。 房价现在不是上升,不是持平,而是已开始下跌。先知先觉的卖家正在夺门而出, 而最近(一年)才买房的卖家会面临逐日而增的亏损。

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