In Vancouver, sales plunged 32.5 per cent in September from a year earlier. On a trend basis, sales were more than 40 per cent below a 10-year September average. The benchmark price slipped just 0.8 per cent.
In Toronto, where there are fears in particular of a condo bubble, sales in September dropped 21 per cent while prices climbed 8.5 per cent.
大多成交量下跌21%,但均价还是升了8.5%。
But as Royal LePage and other observers pointed out, softer prices will follow the downturn in sales, which have been hit by tighter federal mortgage rules, exhortations by the Bank of Canada and others for Canadians to get their record debt burdens under control, and generally lofty housing costs.
“Home prices are defying logic and holding remarkably steady, or in some cases, still rising significantly, such as in Toronto and Calgary,” said Prof. John Andrew of the Queen’s School of Urban and Regional Planning.
“This will be temporary, with a normal lag of three to six months between significant sales volume changes and home price changes.”
房价虽目前看来完全违背逻辑,不是看似持平 (大温) 就是继续上扬 (大多,卡城),但这现象只是短暂的, 加拿大皇后大学都市规划学院教授 John Andrew 说。
通常我们可以在成交量大幅变化后的3到6个月内见到因其引起的房价变动。
In Vancouver’s case, agreed Sal Guatieri of BMO Nesbitt Burns, prices “can only head lower in the face of a dozen active listings for every sale, and as buyers seek revenge after a decade-long boom that took average prices up 140 per cent.”
BMO 证卷公司 副总裁 兼资深分析师 Sal Guatieri 指出, 以大温的现状而言,每12个房源只有一个成交。 大温房价未来只有一个方向,就是下跌。
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