Wednesday, 19 December 2012

IMF warns tighter mortgage rules needed. What'd The F Do?!

IMF 过了一年再次警告加拿大家庭负债继续攀升。 政府应再次缩紧房贷

IMF 在2011年12月警告过:  加拿大房市过热。 政府应考虑采取进一步缩紧房贷措施
GF 在2012年2月发表了政府房贷政策预测
而财长 Flaherty 在 2012年6月20日公布了缩紧房贷政策

但是财长 Flaherty 在 今年10月有说过 "我们 [缩紧房贷] 已做的够多了。我不打算未来再度缩紧房贷"
- 他会怎么做呢 ?
GF:  若财长Flaherty要在2013年再度缩紧房贷,GF认为把首付调高至7.5%是可能的选择。 而财长可能会向2012年一般,等到春季销售期过了再重新评估是否进一步限制房贷。  
GF认为财长在2013年进一步作出"打房政策" (增首付,再次减少Re-finance 时可借的比例,再次调低CMHC政府担保房贷的上限, 缩紧 [借贷/收入比例]上限) 的几率为10%-20% (不高)

Translation:  GF believes that if Flaherty is to further tighten mortgages in 2013, then increasing down payment to 7.5% (from 5%) is a possible and effective move.  Flaherty will likely wait until mid-year to reassess the housing market (which was what he did in 2012).  
GF "guesstimates" the chance of further mortgage rule tightening in 2013 to be low but not insignificant.  ~10%-20% chance.
Possible changes include DP increase, lower LTV on refinancing, lower caps on debt-service-to-income ratio, and further decrease maximum insurable home price (currently $1M)

Even tighter mortgage rules may be needed: IMF

"Ottawa may have to do more to tame Canadian households' high levels of debt, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.

Ottawa's latest round of tighter mortgage regulations came over summer when it lowered the amortization period to 25 years from 30 years and cut the amount of money consumers could borrow against their home, among other changes.
While the real estate industry has been blaming the changes for the recent slowdown in sales, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto when November sales fell 29 and 16 percent, respectively, the IMF says more may be needed, as the debt-to-income level continues to creep higher."

"However, should the household debt to income ratio continue to rise, additional measures may be needed," the report warns. "Higher down payment requirements (tighter loan-to-value [LTV] limits for first buyers), lower caps on debt-service-to-income ratios, and tighter LTV on refinancing are some of the possible options."

IMF said the same thing in Dec 2011
“Policy makers should continue to watch developments in the mortgage market closely, the fund said. Lending for homes has slowed, but still is growing at a “robust” pace of almost 7 per cent, the report said.
Finance should be ready to take steps to slow borrowing further if home lending continues to expand excessively, such as larger down-payment requirements for mortgages and demanding lower debt service-to-income ratios, the IMF said.”
BUT Flaherty said in Oct/12 “We’ve done enough. I do not intend to do anymore.”
- What’d the F do?

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