Saturday 9 March 2013

Mar 1-8 Sales Stats


2013 vs 2012
Sales: 650 vs 790 (-18%)
New Lists: 1583 vs 1697 (-7%)
Ratio: 41% vs 47%

Est Month-end Sales: 2150 vs 2874 (-25%)
Est Month-end Lists: 4950 vs 5843 (-15%)
Est Month-end Inventory: 15840 vs 15236(+4%)
MOI:7.2-7.6 (Est) vs 5.3 (Mar/12)

Greater Vancouver is expected to reach 7.4 months of inventory by end of March, remaining in "Buyer's Market" territory.
March usually has the lowest MOI in a year.
Below are historical March MOI's:

2006: 2.4 个月
2007: 3.1 个月
2008: 4.8 个月
2009: 6.4 个月
2010: 4.3 个月
2011: 3.2 个月
2012: 5.3 个月
2013~ 7.4个月

In the last 10+ years, not a single March was in Buyer's market (even 2009).
I expect MOI to creep up after March/April, making 2013 a year entirely in "Buyer's Market" territory.

I expect Greater Vancouver composite HPI benchmark price to continue declining YoY, while holding steady vs last month (before continuing its descent after April)


年份 成交 新上市 比例
year sales list sell/list 
20012315380560.8%
20023392516865.6%
20033304427277.3%
20044371570976.6%
20053938508377.5%
20064033576769.9%
20073582545665.7%
20082997567452.8%
20092265438551.7%
20103137700444.8%
20114080679760.0%
20122874584349.2%
2013 2150 4950 43.4% (est)

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