CMHC makes another change to its upper ranks

FP article: http://business.financialpost.com/2013/05/29/cmhc-makes-another-change-to-its-upper-ranks/?__lsa=2010-3c82

What prompted all these execs to leave?

- Lack of qualifications? As Richard Leblanc, a governance expert and associate professor at York University, said this month, "they are out of their league."
- Do they see something ominous looming?

- Business not going very well?

- OSFI exerting pressure?

Richmond Seller to Lease-back - why?

$1,788,000 - 10531 Southdale Road, Richmond 

5 Bedrooms 5 Full Bathrooms 1 Half Bathroom 3,760 Sq Ft 8,226 Sq Ft Lot Built 2010

3 year old like new home by original owner...
Subject to a written argeement (THIS) Seller will lease back for full 2 years guaranteed $3300 per month and will pay full rent on completion or month to month your choice.

www.ecorealtyinc.ca/li...=260196480

Looks like This seller-lease-back deal provides a better ROI:
$1,350,000 – 5434 164th Street, Surrey
Seller is willing to lease back property for two years for $5,000 per month.
http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=260165414

Or This
$1,488,888 – 7181 264 Street, Langley
“Seller willing to lease back the whole facility and house for $7500 per month for 3 years with option to renew.”
http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=260226364

Beats $1,788,000 @ $3300/m rent in Richmond

May1-17 Stats

2013 vs 2012
Sales: 1720 vs 1698 (+1%)
Lists: 3522 vs 4032 (-12.6%)
Ratio: 48.8% vs 42.1%

Est Month-end Sales: 2850 vs 2853 (-)
Est Month-end Inventory: 17760 vs 17835(-0.4%)
Est Month-end MOI: 6.2-6.5 months  vs 6.3

This May, both Sales and MOI will reach worst or 2nd worst levels in over a decade.
Current MOI is at "Balanced-to-Buyer's Market"

May historical MOI (Months of Inventory):
2006: 2.3 
2007: 2.9 
2008: 5.4 
2009: 3.9 
2010: 5.5 
2011: 4.3 
2012: 6.3 
2013~ 6.3

May had been a "hotter" month than April.  Sales volume is similar to May 2012 so far.
This is not quite "good news" yet for RE industry, as May 2012 was the worst May in at least the past decade.

Inventory level has dropped to slightly lower than same time last year.
Some have argue that the amount of "motivated sellers" have probably increased.
If so, we can expect the price response in the upcoming REBGV/Teranet HPI numbers.

We should be able to expect MOI to trend up after May.  Second half of 2013 should be similar or slightly worse than 2012-H2 (due to tighter lending rules and stagnant job market in GVA).  We shall see soon enough.

今年5月房市较4月热络，而与去年同月的成交量亦不相上下 (这还不算是好消息，因为去年5月是过去10多年最差的5月)。
我们知道, 5月过后,滞销量会一路上升。 今年下半年的房市走向，预计将类似于2012年下半，可能稍加恶化 (因为房贷政策继续紧缩及大温就业市场不见好转)。 我们只能拭目以待。

预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比下跌。环比大致持平。

May historical Sales
2005: 4434 
2006: 4297 
2007: 4331 
2008: 3002 
2009: 3524 
2010: 3156 
2011: 3377 
2012: 2853
2013: 2850 (est)

May 1-10 Stats

May 1-10
2013 vs 2012
Sales: 995 vs 1098 (-9.4%)
Lists: 2228 vs 2774 (-19.7%)
Ratio: 45% vs 40%

Est Month-end Sales: 2570 vs 2853 (-10% YoY)
Est Month-end Inventory: 17900 vs 17835(+0.4%)
MOI :6.8-7.2 months vs 6.3 (May 2012)

We can expect the highest May MOI and lowest May Sales in recent history

Historical May MOI (Months of Inventory):
2006: 2.3 个月
2007: 2.9 个月
2008: 5.4 个月
2009: 3.9 个月
2010: 5.5 个月
2011: 4.3 个月
2012: 6.3 个月
2013~ 7.0个月

我们知道,滞销量大于7就是所谓"买方市场", 而过去十多年来,没有一年的5月是买方市场的。5月过后,滞销量会一路上升。 

预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比下跌。环比大致持平。

Historical May Sales
2005: 4434 
2006: 4297 
2007: 4331 
2008: 3002 
2009: 3524 
2010: 3156 
2011: 3377 
2012: 2853
2013: 2570 (est)

Back in Action

Had been on vacation in remote places on Earth without internet connection for about 2 weeks, now about to be back in action!  maybe after a couple more days rest..

April 1-20 stats

4月1-20日 大温销售数据
2013 vs 2012
Sales: 1678 vs 2077 (-19%)
New List: 4068 vs 4509 (-10%)
Ratio: 41% vs 46%

Est Month end sales: 2450 vs 2799 (-13%)
Est Month end lists: 5700 vs 6056 (-6%)
*今年4月有21天工作日,去年只有19天。
Est Month end Inventory: 16700 vs 16538(+1%)
MOI:6.7-7.1个月  vs 5.9个月 

大温地区滞销量在4月底可望达到6.9个月,继续偏向买方市场。
今年4月滞销量可望成为过去10多年来最高, 为唯一处于买方市场的4月。
以下为过去几年4月滞销量 (Months of Inventory):

2006: 3.0 个月
2007: 3.5 个月
2008: 4.7 个月
2009: 4.8 个月
2010: 4.5 个月
2011: 4.4 个月
2012: 5.9 个月
2013~ 6.9个月

我们知道,滞销量大于7就是所谓"买方市场", 而过去十多年来,没有一年的3-4月是接近买方市场的。四月过后,滞销量会一路上升。 
温哥华若连3-4月都没法突破买方市场,我们可以预测2013年又会带来一整年的下跌。

今年4月成交/新上市比 及 成交量 可望成为有史以来最低。

预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比下跌。环比大致持平。

年份 成交 新上市 比例
year sales list sell/list 

2006	3345	4452	75.1%
2007	3387	5580	60.7%
2008	3218	7010	45.9%
2009	2963	4649	63.7%
2010	3512	7648	45.9%
2011	3225	5847	55.2%
2012	2799	6056	46.2%

2013 2450 5700 43.0% (预测)

"Carney warns of quicker rate hike if household debt not tempered"

"Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney warned on Thursday that interest rates could rise sooner if the growth in household debt, which is related to the housing market, was not tempered.

“A concern of the Bank of Canada...has been the pace of growth of household debt, which has been related to dynamics in the housing market. And so a number of measures have been taken to slow that pace,” he told a Reuters-sponsored event, noting that the growth rate has fallen “quite nicely” to 3 per cent from 13 per cent."

- interesting how Carney still keeps the rate hike bias.  I wonder if the next BoC governor will keep this tone..

also read:

Coming mortgage growth slowdown to mirror trend in 1990s downturn, RBC says