Saturday 11 May 2013

May 1-10 Stats

May 1-10
2013 vs 2012
Sales: 995 vs 1098 (-9.4%)
Lists: 2228 vs 2774 (-19.7%)
Ratio: 45% vs 40%

Est Month-end Sales: 2570 vs 2853 (-10% YoY)
Est Month-end Inventory: 17900 vs 17835(+0.4%)
MOI :6.8-7.2 months vs 6.3 (May 2012)

We can expect the highest May MOI and lowest May Sales in recent history

Historical May MOI (Months of Inventory):
2006: 2.3 个月
2007: 2.9 个月
2008: 5.4 个月
2009: 3.9 个月
2010: 5.5 个月
2011: 4.3 个月
2012: 6.3 个月
2013~ 7.0个月

我们知道,滞销量大于7就是所谓"买方市场", 而过去十多年来,没有一年的5月是买方市场的。5月过后,滞销量会一路上升。 

预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比下跌。环比大致持平。

Historical May Sales
2005: 4434 
2006: 4297 
2007: 4331 
2008: 3002 
2009: 3524 
2010: 3156 
2011: 3377 
2012: 2853
2013: 2570 (est)

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