业余地产投资者，现在千万别丢掉你的正业

最近连主流媒体和房地产杂志都开始看跌了。。。

Property investor, definitely keep your day jobs

Wednesday, 01 February 2012

Business-for-self lending may, indeed, be headed the way of the dodo bird, with Firstline officially axing that segment of its business effective today, Feb. 1.

“Hello everyone, FirstLine will no longer accept new applications for stated income programs effective end of today also max loan amount is $1 million,” reads an email penned by one of the lender’s business development managers and sent to mortgage brokers Tuesday afternoon. “if you have any deals you need to send please do so by the end of today, FYI Brand-to-Brand is NOT affected.”

Many other FirstLine programs are: New Immigrant programs, non-Immigrant programs, equity programs (flex), Access low-doc programs, CMHC self-employed simplified program, Genworth Alt-A program, Canada Guaranty low-doc programs, Canada Guaranty Lifestyle Advantage and self-employed program.

“It’s a sign that the government is auditing the banks and asking them to come up with something to reduce the risk on this line of business,” he said.  “It appears that FirstLine has said that it is out. It may be slow and gradual, but I think we’re seeing a return to the 1980s when there was a greater distinction between A and B lending.”

That’s likely to accrue to the few lenders still prepared to lend stated-income, albeit with a significant premium attached.

Michael Marini was one of the first mortgage professionals to sound the alarm about the disappearing BFS high-ratio lending.

“The change means that many of us will be challenged to get a mortgage as well,” said the mortgage agent with Dominion Lending Centres Funds in Toronto last December.

http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/item/1019-property-investor-definitely-keep-your-day-jobs 

CMHC 未来动态预测

大傻 个人认为,CMHC 房贷担保的600B 上限应该会在2012春被再次提高 (除非政府真的狠下心来要极大幅度打击房市,但那是不大可能,也是不太符合逻辑的事), 但是在政府提高CMHC总担保额的同时,有极大可能会一并发表新一轮的房贷缩紧政策 (提高首付/减少最长偿还期/减少re-finance 时可重新贷款的百分比/设定CMHC每宗贷款的上限/让银行承受更多的风险,以缩小纳税人的风险, 等等)。

发生的时间极可能在3月中(政府预算公布)之前。

银行房贷规则改变: 新移民，自雇者将更难拿到房贷 - 2月1日讯

CIBC 在1月31日晚间发表新闻,

将停止接收 "Stated Income" 无法证明收入的自雇者的房贷申请。

同时,CIBC 将设房贷申请上限于 $1 Million. 

这改变可能与 加拿大房贷公司 (CMHC) 濒临法定房贷担保上限 600 Billion 有关。 

其他银行有可能跟进。

Self-employed, new immigrants may find getting a mortgage tougher
Published On Wed Feb 01 2012

It’s going to be tougher for the self employed, new immigrants and higher-risk borrowers to get a mortgage as concerns continue to mount over the state of Canada’s housing market.

CIBC’s wholesale mortgage arm, FirstLine, quietly announced Tuesday that it will no longer accept new applications from “stated income” homebuyers who can’t prove they have the annual net income to qualify for home loans.

FirstLine also set a $1 million cap on what it will lend for a home purchase.

The major change in policy, which is bound to pique the interest of other major lenders, came on the same day it was revealed that the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. could be forced to cut back on the mortgages it insures.

The moves are seen as among the clearest indications yet that Canada’s hot housing market and record levels of household debt are a concern far beyond just the Ottawa offices of Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney.

That’s despite a Bank of Montreal report this week that says Canada’s housing market is more balloon than bubble and more likely to deflate than pop.

“The signs are there that everyone is worried, with the exception of BMO. It’s not like there is just one person saying there is a problem with the housing market,” said Jason Friesen, a mortgage consultant with the Callum Ross Team.

“It’s impossible to know, given all the doom and gloom in the rest of the world, what will happen over the next three months or the next six months, but lending institutions are looking for ways to protect themselves.”


www.thestar.com/articl...ing-market

2012-1月底大温销售数据 (非官方)

1月1-31日 (2012) 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 1590
新上市单位: 5762
售出/新上市 比例: 27.6%
(每新上市10个房,只有<3个售出)

****************************
1月1-31日 (2011) 大温地区 住宅单位
月底(非官方)总售出单位: 1876
月底(非官方)总新上市单位: 4820
月底(非官方)售出/新上市 比例: 38.9%

看来今年1月成交量比去年下降15-16%, 比2010年下降18%, 是十年来第二低
新上市量预计比去年1月上升19-20%, 是十年来最高
[售出/新上市]比例比去年下跌约11%
而目前总房源则比2011-1月底大增18-20%

大温房市继续处于买方市场。

预计大温房地产协会在2-3天会发表的1月数据,会说以下几句话
1. Buyers have more choice. "买方选择变多" (译: 房源大增)
2. Buyers have more time. "买方有更多时间挑选" (译: 买方市场, 房比以往难卖)
3. Sellers have to price appropriately. "卖方需要谨慎定价" (译: 卖方不要对自己房价期望过高)
4. Good time to buy because of low rates. "现在利率低,是买房好时机" (译: 对地产经纪来说,随时都是买房的好时机)


__________________________________
历年来1月大温地区官方销售记录:
年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例

2002	2248	3626	62.0%
2003	1966	3810	51.6%
2004	1954	3039	64.3%
2005	1697	3360	50.5%
2006	1924	3471	55.4%
2007	1806	4067	44.4%
2008	1819	4675	38.9%
2009	762	3700	20.6%
2010	1923	5147	37.4%
2011	1819	4801	37.9%

2012 1590 5762 27.6% <- 预测
换句话说,历年的1月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有4-5个售出

MLS 房地产经纪英语用词解码 : )

随时更新

"Adorable" - 太小难住人,注意房龄

"Charming" - 太小难住人,注意房龄

"Cozy" - 太小难住人

"Cute" - 太小难住人

"Handyman's DIY special" - 外观不佳,房屋质量不好。 需要大量修复

"Easy Highway access" - 离大马路/高速公路太近。噪音/空气问题。

"Motivated" - 卖家看来急着出手;买家应尽量讲价

"Livable" - 难住人, not livable.

"Lot value only" - 房屋难住人,要拆掉重盖

"North-facing" - 可能有山景,但欠缺阳光

"Original owners" - 房屋老旧过时,常有异味

"Ready for your TLC" - 房屋质量不好, 多处需要修复

"Secluded yard" - 后院杂草丛生

"Solid" - 质料坚固,但外观...

"South-facing" - 前门有太阳,但后院阴湿养苔

"Unique" - 奇异,可能难接受的建筑与装潢

"Vancouver special" - 1965-1985年代,温哥华地区驰名的箱状屋,屋顶稍倾, 2楼阳台朝前。主卧室及客厅在2楼,楼下为小卧室,常被用来出租。此类房屋常被批评为不美观。在温东及本拿比尤其常见。



"West-facing" - 午后西晒,公寓尤其严重

BMO 认为加拿大房市是气球，而非泡沫

BMO 首席经济师 Sherry Cooper 认为，加拿大房市顶多是个气球， 可能会慢慢泄气，而非会大幅破灭的泡沫。

除非

1。 利息突然升高

2。 加拿大进入经济衰退期

3。 亚洲经济衰退，造成国外买家大幅减少

大傻 认为， 第一点是迟早会发生的事。 而第二点及第三点则正在我们眼前发生中。

另外消息，这位首席经济师 Sherry Cooper 现在正在卖她在多伦多3百万的房地产。 

[BMO denies housing bubble]
The Bank of Montreal poured cold water on the idea Canada’s housing market could be headed for a crash, suggesting that prices are only “moderately high across the country.”

“Expect the housing boom to cool rather than crash,” BMO’s chief economist Sherry Cooper and senior economist Sal Guatieri said in a report published Monday.

The bank does note, however, three risks to the outlook.
1. A sudden hike in interest rates,
2. a widespread Canadian recession, or
3. an economic slowdown in Asia reducing the number of foreign buyers would all take the air out of Canada’s housing market.

“But barring one of these triggers, however, a dramatic correction is unlikely,” the bank said.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/01/30/bmo-housing-real-estate.html

加拿大次级房贷的问题加重

Canada facing subprime mortgage risk

Bloomberg News  Jan 30, 2012

Canadian lenders are loosening standards, offering mortgages similar to U.S. subprime loans that pose an “emerging risk” to financial institutions, according to the banking regulator.

Banks and other lenders are becoming “increasingly liberal” with mortgages and home-equity credit lines that don’t require individuals to prove their income, according to 152 pages of documents obtained by Bloomberg News under freedom of information law from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. The mortgages, typically granted to the self-employed and recent immigrants, “have some similarities to non-prime loans in the U.S. retail lending market,” the documents show.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/30/canada-facing-subprime-mortgage-risk/