BC 政府 12月13日通过Strata新规定: 强迫建立"折旧报告" - Strata fee 看涨

折旧报告 = mandatory depreciation reports

[New regulations require strata to think long term]

A depreciation report is basically a planning tool used by property owners (the strata corporation) to clearly understand what the strata is responsible for maintaining and repairing as part of its building system (a physical component inventory); the age of the building system; the projected life expectancy; when it should be planned for renewal; what it will cost when the time comes to renew the component; and how the strata will pay for it.

The new regulations provide a two-year window for strata corporations to comply with the mandatory requirement - by Dec. 13, 2013.

So how does this affect our strata corporations? Every non-exempted strata corporation will be required to commission a depreciation report by Dec. 13, 2013. They will also be required - by March 1, 2012 - to disclose on the amended Form B information certificate, whether they have a depreciation report, and they must attach a copy of the report if one exists.

Unless your strata corporation is exempt, you will be required to retain the services of a person who is qualified to create the report. So for many strata corporations, the first step is to send out requests for proposals. The requests should stipulate that the report must meet the requirements of the regulations and establish the total cost for all services, including third-party inspections and surveys.

The regulations require that the person who is providing the report include his or her qualifications and indicate whether he or she is covered by errors and omissions insurance, and describe any relationship between the individual and the strata corporation. (A 'person' also implies a consultant or company providing the report, such as an engineering firm.)

Creating an inventory of what your strata has to include will require an on-site inspection and an inventory list of the components that are common property, limited common property or items included in the strata bylawsthat the strata corporation has to maintain and repair. This includes the building's structure, exteriors including roofs, roof decks, doors, windows, skylights, electrical, heating, plumbing, common amenities and facilities, parking and roadways, utilities including water and sewage, landscaping, interior finishing, green building components.

The period of service over 30 years will include both items that have to be replaced, such as roofs, and those maintenance obligations that are not part of the annual operating budget, such as the repainting of the siding every five to 10 years. The final report will also have to include a financial forecasting sector - essentially, how the strata is going to pay for this work. Is it going to increase fees to build up the contingency reserve fund, loans or planning on special levies as necessary, or will it consider a combination of funding options?

http://www.theprovince.com/technolog...790/story.html

http://www.housing.gov.bc.ca/strata/regs/OIC-SPA.pdf

12月中大温房市销售记录与展望

12月1-16日 (2011) 大温地区 住宅单位
新上市单位: 1171
平均每工作日新上市单位: 96
售出单位: 1045
平均每工作日售出单位: 87
售出/新上市 比例: 89%
预测月底总新上市单位: 1550-1650 
预测月底总售出单位: 1600-1700

12月1-16日 (2010) 大温地区 住宅单位
新上市单位: 1243
平均每工作日新上市单位: 104
售出单位: 1188
平均每工作日售出单位: 99
售出/新上市 比例: 96%

月底总新上市单位: 1699
月底总售出单位: 1899
月底售出/新上市 比例: 112%

预计今年12月售出量比去年下降11-13%, 而新上市量预计比去年12月下降5-7%。[售出/新上市]比例将比去年下跌约6%。
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历年来12月大温地区销售记录:

年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2001 2394/1856 - 129%
2002 2205/1895 - 116%
2003 2434/2301 - 106%
2004 2065/1764 - 117%
2005 2332/1735 - 134%
2006 1686/1524 - 111%
2007 1897/1695 - 112%
2008 924/1550 - 60%
2009 2515/2153 - 117%
2010 1899/1699 - 112%

换句话说,历年的12月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有11-12个售出

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历年12月底总房源:
2005 7500
2006 10000
2007 9500
2008 15193
2009 8939
2010 11000

根据 2011-11月底及12月1-16日销售数据,预测今年年底总房源将达到 12000-12500, 是近年来第二高的年末剩余房源。 2012年初的房源将比2011年初增加约10-12%

TD Bank CEO Ed Clark 建议加拿大政府再次缩紧房贷政策

TD Bank CEO Ed Clark 建议加拿大政府再次缩紧房贷政策。
12月14日 Globe & Mail


Mr Clark 认为把最长偿还期从30年进一步缩减为25年， 是可能的选择。


Less than a year after Ottawa forced the banking sector to cut back on risky mortgage lending, the head of one of Canada’s biggest banks says the federal government should go even further.


Ed Clark, the chief executive officer of Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T72.40-0.66-0.90%), said in an interview that he believes Ottawa could tighten the rules on housing loans more than it already has, without hurting the economy or putting the housing market at risk.


Mr. Clark believes cutting the maximum length on federally insured mortgages to 25 years, from 30 years, would be a good step to slow rising household debt, which hit a new record this week, surpassing that of the United States and Britain.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/mortgage-rules-should-be-stricter-td-chief-says/article2271588/


Greater Fool 个人认为，明年春季政府再次缩紧房贷的可能性为65%。

多伦多资深realtor 在CityTV 预测明年房价将开始大跌，已套现所有房产，改为租房

有25年经验的多伦多资深realtor Raza Kizilbash， 12月12日 在CityTV 预测明年开始房价将大跌， 跌幅他预测为25%. 
他已套现所有房产，改为租房。

"This is a catastrophe about to happen, that's why I'm worried that people who have properties, they're going to lose big time."

Raza has a number of listings here in the beach area, he's starting to notice more and more "New Price" (Reduced Price) signs.

He had to drop one property from 575k to 450k in order to sell it.

December 12, 2011
CityNews anchor and reporter Tom Hayes talks to one long-time Toronto real-estate agent who is forecasting a stormy future when it comes to housing prices.

http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/videos/174666

Carney 在为明年紧缩房贷新政铺路?

加拿大央行总裁再次警告，加拿大人民负债过重，不顾自己能力地花钱- 尤其是花在房地产上的投资。

大傻个人认为，明年年初政府再次推出紧缩房贷新政的几率为60%

[Canadians ‘consuming’ beyond means: Mark Carney]
Dec 12, 2011 10:26 PM ET
- Carney’s on a streak of household-debt-warning speeches of late. Is he paving the way for mortgage rule changes in 2012??

“…Carney said that Canada’s relatively low public and business debt present a unique opportunity to build a stronger economy for the future.

But he cautioned once again that Canadian households need to end their spending splurge, particularly on homes, now that their debt levels have reached 149 per cent of income, a higher figure than in the U.S. or Britain.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/busines.....urope.html

Scotiabank 缩紧投资类房产按揭贷款

主要三项改变：
1.投资房总数上限为5处房产（含在其他银行有贷款的物业）
2.只能申请5年封闭式按揭贷款（含浮动和固定利率）
3.利率高于自住房按揭贷款

[Scotiabank tightens mortgage lending rules for rental units]
December 09, 2011

Scotiabank has long been an investor-friendly lender. But recently, Scotia Mortgage Authority (SMA) made its rental financing program notably more restrictive.

SMA now:

1. Limits borrowers to five rental properties, including those financed elsewhere (there was no official limit previously)

2. Restricts rental mortgages to 5-year closed terms (fixed or variable)

3. Upcharges the rate for rental deals (whereas before it didn’t)

On a positive note, SMA says it has loosened its net worth requirement on rental applications (which is now 10% of each property’s value, up to $50,000 per property).

….
Apart from the reasoning above, Calum says the changes may also be risk-driven.

“There is a growing concern that there is a potentially unhealthy demand for residential real estate investments,” he said.

“The changes signal a clear indication that Scotiabank has a decreased appetite for real estate investors who have significant exposure to the residential real estate investment market.”

“People will generally allow themselves to become delinquent on (default on) investment property mortgage payments before they will allow themselves to default on their principal residence mortgage payments—for the simple reason that people put priority on basic shelter needs.”

“Clearly having one of the biggest mortgage lenders in the country tightening up credit to this group is not good news for the segment in the short term.”

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2011/12/whats-behind-scotias-rental-changes.html#more
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个人认为，继Scotiabank 之后，我们将在数月内见到加拿大其他主要银行跟进，拉高买房(尤其是投资房) 的门槛，以求减低银行本身在房价下跌情况下的风险。

有关房贷政策的再次紧缩

Europe's debt crisis a risk here, Bank of Canada warns

Record household debt expected to rise

A major area of concern for the bank is the high level of indebtedness of Canadian households that have taken advantage of the low interest rate environment of the past several years to buy homes, cars and other items on credit.

Although household debt-to-income is now at a record 149 per cent, higher than even in the United States, the bank fully expects that ratio to increase further.

That leaves Canadian households vulnerable to a shock, such as a sharp rise in unemployment caused by an economic slowdown or a significant decline in house prices, which would sap household wealth.

The bank regards the situation serious enough that it advises the government to "continuously assess the risks arising from the financial situation of the household sector."

Recently, the International Monetary Fund said Ottawa may need to again revisit eligibility rules for obtaining mortgages, even though the federal government have tightened conditions three times in as many years.

The bank doesn't go that far, but notes that after March — the last time mortgage requirements were stiffened — mortgage credit slowed, but has since picked up.

---------------> 个人认为2012年初政府再次实施房贷紧缩政策的几率为 >50%