Saturday 26 January 2013

Jan 1-25 Greater Vancouver Stats

Jan 1-25
2013 vs 2012
Sales: 1050 vs 1261 (-17% YoY)
New Lists: 4232 vs 4978 (-15% YoY)
Ratio: 24.8% vs 25.3%

Est Month end sales: 1325 vs 1577 (-16%
*Jan/13 has 1 more work day vs '12
Est Month end new lists: 4950 vs 5756 (-14%)
Est Month end inventory: 13200 vs 12544 (+5%)
MOI:9.5-10.5 months vs 8 (Jan/12)

Greater Vancouver MOI, estimated to be ~10 by end of January, will continue to stay well in buyer's market territory.
January 2013 sales and sale/new list ratio will likely continue to be 2nd worst in the last decade.
However, new lists are markedly fewer than same period in 2012.  Judging from sentiments on Chinese forums, I have a feeling many potential sellers are waiting for the "traditional spring market"  commencing after Chinese New Year (Feb 10).  We shall see.

I would expect the REBGV HPI benchmark price to continue decreasing both YoY and MoM.

大温地区滞销量在1月底可望达到10个月继续处于明显的买方市场
今年1月成交量及 成交/新上市比 可望成为十多年来第二低,仅次于2009年。
但上市量比去年同期明显降低。一月底/二月初将逐渐进入春季市场的前期,我们应能见到明显上升的挂牌量。
预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续同比环比双跌。

Year Sales Lists Ratio
2002 2248 3626 62.0%
2003 1966 3810 51.6%
2004 1954 3039 64.3%
2005 1697 3360 50.5%
2006 1924 3471 55.4%
2007 1806 4067 44.4%
2008 1819 4675 38.9%
2009 762 3700 20.6%
2010 1923 5147 37.4%
2011 1819 4801 37.9%
2012 1577 5756 27.4%
2013 1325 4950 26.8% (est)

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