How did GF do on 2012 prediction?

Looking back 1 year ago, when I made the 2012 Vancouver RE prediction:

大傻的2012大温地区房市预测

SATURDAY, 7 JANUARY 2012

- 预测 HPI指标价在2012年上半将继续缓慢下滑的趋势， 而在下半年 （夏季尾声）加速下滑。

- 若政府在春季发表紧缩房贷的新政， 则可能在一两个月的缓冲期内见到短期房市稍趋热络的现象。但在新政执行后将见到房市加速冷却。

(I expect HPI benchmark price to continue gradual decline in 2012 1st half, while declining at a more rapid pace starting at end of summer. If the government announces mortgage rule tightening in Spring, then we can expect a short-term rebound in demand in 1-2 months post-announcement; however, we'll see the decline picking up pace soon after mortgage rule changes are implemented)

预测 Prediction：

A. 若无紧缩房贷新政 (If NO mortgage rule tightening in Spring 2012:)

1. REBGV HPI price 2012-6 vs 2012-1: -2 to -4% (+2.6%)

2.  Richmond，Van West will lead declines，SFH HPI by 2012-6 vs 2012-1: -3 to -5%. (Rmd -0.6%, VW -0.01%)

3. SFH Average price :2012-6 vs 2012-1: -4 to -6% (-7.4%)

4. REBGV HPI price 2012-12 vs 2012-1: -7 to -9% (-2.3%)

5.  Richmond，Van West will lead declines，SFH HPI by 2012-12 vs 2012-1:-8 to -10%. (Rmd -6.6%, VW -9.1%)

6. SFH Average price :2012-12 vs 2012-1: -10 to -12% (-5.9%)

B. 若有紧缩房贷新政 (If mortgage rule tightened in Spring 2012:)

1. REBGV HPI price 2012-6 vs 2012-1: -2 to -3% (actual: +2.6%)

2.  Richmond，Van West will lead declines，SFH HPI by 2012-6 vs 2012-1: -3 to -4%. (actual: Rmd -0.6%, VW -0.01%)

3. SFH Average price :2012-6 vs 2012-1: -4 to-5% (actual: -7.4%)

4. REBGV HPI price 2012-12 vs 2012-1: -9 to -11% (actual: -2.3%)

5.  Richmond，Van West will lead declines，SFH HPI by 2012-12 vs 2012-1: -10 to -12%. (actual: Rmd -6.6%, VW -9.1%)

6. SFH Average price :2012-12 vs 2012-1: -12 to -15% (actual: -5.9%)

Ended up, mortgage rules were tightened in 2012, but in summer, not spring.

GF's predictions was close for Richmond and Van West HPI, somewhat close for SFH Average price; however too pessimistic for REBGV HPI.

Stay tuned for my 2013 prediction this coming weekend.