Saturday, 24 November 2012

Larry / Cam Muir's latest bullish pep talk
Golden quotes:

“The premise [of impending doom] is now as firmly entrenched in popular consciousness as carbon emissions and TMZ. It has taken the form of idolatry in the blogosphere, where any countervailing narrative is demonized. It has catapulted university dropouts into media darlings because of a hackneyed webpage and an opinion. It has been tarted up by so-called experts who predict impending doom year after year, despite being completely wrong every time.”
“The housing market had gone through a significant inflationary period leading up to 2008. Unlike today, speculation was clearly evident”
-  Was?
“The most dramatic turnaround ever recorded occurred in Vancouver during 2009 … If such a severe financial crisis and global recession couldn’t trigger a meltdown of the housing market or pop any asset balloon, what could?”
- he conveniently left out the 2.5% rate cut from 2008H2-2009H1, plus other unprecedented globally coordinated stimulus measures
” The main misconception about housing markets is that they behave like the stock market. They don’t. Bad news can drive stocks lower in a matter of seconds, whereas homes are relatively illiquid; they take a long time to sell and have higher closing costs. In times of hardship, the home is typically the last thing to go. ”
- even illiquidity was spun in a positive light!
“In a market that has a well-diversified economy and expanding population, fire sales are extremely uncommon. Unless there is household financial catastrophe on a large scale, potential home sellers simply wait until market conditions improve.”
- Vancouver has a well-diversified economy?
- “simply” wait for market conditions to improve? Some people simply can’t wait, and it’s the ones that sell that sets market price.

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