Sunday, 16 September 2012

列治文地产经纪: 跌幅加大,将持续几年,越早卖亏越少

上个月预测Richmond独立屋3年内下跌30%的地产经纪 James Wong, 昨日刚发表8月份列治文地产分析:

“August was another disappointment for many home sellers who were hopeful of selling their homes.
The real estate market in Richmond deteriorated further in August.The lack of buying activities and large number of listings continued to exert pressure on home sellers to cut their prices in order to sell their homes. There are many more homes listed at or below their city assessment values.
八月再次带来了另卖方失望的消息。列治文八月房市恶化加剧。 在买方缺乏,及总房源持高的现状下,卖方面临巨大压力降价。 本月叫价低于政府估价的状况更为普遍。 

There are no signs of the market in Richmond getting better. With the onset of the seasonally slower months in the fall, it is unlikely the last 3 months of 2012 will bring any relief to home sellers who are desperate to sell.
For sellers who have to sell, the only way out is to cut prices… not just 5%, a much deeper cut of 10% to 15% is required.

列治文房市没有任何改善的迹象。年底前必须卖房的屋主将面临更大挑战。 急着脱手的屋主必须降价。不是区区5%, 而是10%至15%。
A prolonged period of low sales, and declining home prices could take many years to play out. Declining home prices will erode seller confidence, resulting in more motivated home sellers to cut prices to sell before home prices drop further.
这个价量齐跌的房市很可能会持续许多年。 下降的房价必将腐蚀卖方的信心,造成更多必须卖的屋主积极降价,造成整体房价持续下降。

A real estate down cycle is already in motion, and just like from 1995 to 2001, the real estate market in Richmond will have a persistent high level or homes for sale, and few buyers willing or able to buy due to tighter lending rules.

房市已经进入下跌周期,就像1995-2001年一般。 列治文房市将面临多年的低迷成交量及大量房源。 政府新一轮的"打房"政策将抑制买家买房的能力。

Richmond detached homes over $1,000,000 are not seeing much buying interest. With total active listings of 721 and average sale around 26 homes the past 3 months, there are 26 months supply of homes. For detached homes over $1,500,000, there are currently 366 homes for sale. With an average past 3 months sale of 12 homes, this translates into 30 months supply of homes.

列治文大于$1M 的独立屋房市不受青睐,现在房源为721, 而3个月来平均每月才卖出26户,房源滞销达到超过26个月。

列治文大于$1.5M 的独立屋房市更加低迷,现在房源为366, 而3个月来平均每月才卖出12户,房源滞销达到超过30个月。

Early sellers would consider themselves the smart ones, cashing out long before others!
早起的鸟儿有虫吃。 比别人早卖出兑现的屋主为智者。

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