Sunday, 7 October 2012

“Tighter mortgage rules thwarting sales”

紧缩的房贷(及其他原因)大幅影响大温成交量

The Province - Oct 7, 2012

“Pauline Kendall owns three houses and a condominium but she couldn’t get financing this summer when she tried to add to her real estate holdings..”
CMHC looks closely at income verification in order to approve the mortgage loans. Income from rent or when someone is new to the country and doesn’t have income tax returns complicate the approval process.
And although Kendall wasn’t applying for a CMHC-backed loan the rule changes have had a “trickle-down” effect to other major lenders, who are tightening their requirements for mortgages – which was the roadblock she faced.
Rental income of $1,000 per month can pay for a mortgage worth around $200,000, according to Ellis. But to the CMHC, the value of that rent is only enough to qualify for a mortgage of about $34,000.
“Rental income has been basically rendered useless,” said Ellis.
Prior to the changes in July, lenders were likely to look more favourably on rental income as a criteria for a loan. Now many of them are using the CMHC criteria.
…Other reasons for the slowdown, said Klein, are net immigration being slightly down and “consumer confidence.”
What Klein hears from Vancouver area realtors is that a lot of buyers are not making a decision in anticipation they might get a better deal tomorrow.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/when-home-sales-sink-prices-are-sure-to-follow/article4593044/?cmpid=rss1

Globe & Mail: 大温,大多成交量不断下跌,将无可避免地拖下房价。


最近总有人 (尤其是地产业相关人员) 在鼓吹说 房市虽然量跌,但价绝不会跌。 这种"永恒看多派"的理论在去年的大温及现在的大多市场不少见。举个例:

大多BMO房贷经纪 王红雨 一周前在中文论坛上讲过 
"[GF] 归纳了一条谬论:成交量下降,房价就会下降。这是HUSHUO。利率如此之低,没有大规模失业,房主会降价卖自己的房子吗?有人犹豫要不要买房,市场走缓,很正常,作为卖家当然不愿以这个时候卖房,所以交投清淡。但如果以此类推说房价会跌,纯属HUCHE。"

前几天BMO分析师Robert Kavcic 才在主流媒体上发表 "大多房市动态明确呈现: 房市已步向买方市场之言, 昨日Globe & Mail 接着刊出以下这篇报导:

"成交量不断下跌,将无可避免地拖下房价"

When home sales sink, prices are sure to follow 

Thursday, 4 October 2012

BMO: 大多市场在08年衰退后再次步向"买方市场"


Toronto housing heads for buyers' market, first time since slump: BMO
MICHAEL BABAD
updated Thursday, Oct. 04 2012, 7:02 PM

Here’s the bottom line on Toronto’s housing market from Robert Kavcic at BMO Nesbitt Burns: Toronto is on its way to becoming a buyers’ market for the first time since the slump.

BMO 分析师 Robert Kavcic 今日公开指出,"大多房市动态现明确呈现: 房市已步向买方市场。

the signs are clear, particularly in the condo market, which has been a major area of concern and where sales lost 27 per cent. Standard detached homes sank by 19 per cent.

迹象十分明显, 尤其是大多公寓市场。 此市场早已处于高风险状态, 本月其成交量已下跌27%。 而独立屋成交量下跌19%。

Prices climbed, by 8.6 per cent on average, but that’s bound to change.
均价上升了8.6%, 但是这情况注定会扭转。

“With new listings up 4 per cent year over year against a backdrop of falling sales, and with plenty of potential resale condo supply coming over the next year, Toronto is quickly heading for buyers’ market territory for the first time (depending on your definition) since the recession,” Mr. Kavcic said.
新上市量增加了4%, 成交量相对减少, 而未来即将上市的房源蓄势以待, 多伦多正在以迅速的步伐迈向2008年经济衰退后第一次的买方市场。

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle4588591/

GF: "买方市场"这词实在不理想,买方市场不代表买房时机,只是说明供过于求,买方缺少, 造成卖方降价压力开始增加的一个阶段。
__________________

Wednesday, 3 October 2012

Financial Post: "房市开始明显下跌,地产业界开始仓促地寻找借口"

As housing market slows, industry scrambles to paint positive picture
Garry Marr | Oct 3, 2012 6:42 PM

Organized real estate is unable, it seems, to admit the glory days may be behind it.

看来,地产业界无法轻易地承认 以往的辉煌已经成为过去式。

Sales plummet in major markets and the industry comes up with a new explanation for the decline, draping its comments with a sense that everything is just fine. The excuses are piling up.
在各大地产区域,成交量已开始大幅缩减。 地产业界开始寻找借口来掩饰这个现实, 继续对大众宣传一切还是美好的。

Ignore what they are saying. Sales are plummeting in Toronto and Vancouver
我们必须不理会这些宣传。 事实是,大温大多成交量已开始急速下跌。

The normal course in any cycle is for sales to correct first and then for prices to follow, he adds. “There is a time lag, that’s what happened in the United States. There’s a time lag as sellers hold on, refusing to drop their asking price, eventually they acknowledge the market has shifted under them.”
在任何一个房市周期,我们会先见到成交量收缩,接着才会见到价位下跌。 这两者之间有一个时滞,如同最近美国的例子。
在这个时间间隔,卖方会试着守住价位,但是最后还是得屈服于市场大局的变动。


http://business.financialpost.com/2012/10/03/as-housing-market-slows-industry-scrambles-to-paint-positive-picture/


根据大温这几年来的数据而言,从房市步入买方市场 (房源滞销量大于7个月) 至 地产局指标价/中位价等等明显下调,之间的时滞约为小于2个月。

9月底大温滞销量从10.7个月恶化至12.1个月, 若要做短期预测,年底前房价 (地产局指标价,中位价等等)会继续下滑。

Tuesday, 2 October 2012

2012-9月 独立屋 数据

Single Family House (SFH) Stats 2012-09

  列治文:
  成交量: -50% 同比, -10% 环比
  成交/上市比: 22% vs 32%同比
  指标价: -4.2% 同比, -1.3% 环比
  中位价: -9.8% 同比, -1.4% 环比

  本拿比:
  成交量: -49% 同比, -10% 环比
  成交/上市比: 18% vs 35%同比
  指标价: +4.2% 同比, -0% 环比
  中位价: -13% 同比, -6.3% 环比

  温东:
  成交量: -48% 同比, -6% 环比
  成交/上市比: 30% vs 51%同比
  指标价: +3.2% 同比, -1.1% 环比
  中位价: -2.5% 同比, -0.6% 环比

  高贵林:
  成交量: -37% 同比, +16% 环比
  成交/上市比: 30% vs 51%同比
  指标价: +3.6% 同比, -0.2% 环比
  中位价: +0.4% 同比, -3.7% 环比

  温西:
  成交量: -17% 同比, +15% 环比
  成交/上市比: 27% vs 27%同比
  指标价: -6.5% 同比, -1.3% 环比
  中位价: +1% 同比, +0% 环比

Sep 2012 Official REBGV Stats Package

2012-9 大温房市官方数据 Sep REBGV Stats (PDF)

2001-2012 archives see here

9月底 大温销售数据 - 官方版


引用:
作者: Greater Fool 查看帖子
9月底 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 1510 vs 2246 ( 同比下降33%,环比下降8%)
新上市: 5230 vs 5680 (下降8%)
比例: 29% vs 40% (差11%)

滞销量:12-12.4月 (预计) vs 7.2月 (同比)

大温地区滞销量在9月底将达到12-12.4个月,比上个月 (10.7个月)再增约1.5个月的滞销房源,
比7月 (8.6个月) 增加4个月的滞销房源,完全深入买方市场

今年看来是1994(或更早)以来成交量最低的9月。
9月底 大温销售数据 - 官方版
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 1516 vs 2246 ( 同比下降32.5%,环比下降8%)
新上市: 5321 vs 5680 (下降6%)
比例: 28% vs 40% (差12%)
大温地区滞销量在9月底达到12.1个月,比上个月 (10.7个月)再增1.4个月的滞销房源,
比7月 (8.6个月) 增加3.5个月的滞销房源,完全深入买方市场

2012 滞销程度与 08年相当
今年是1994(或更早)以来成交量最低的9月。