GF 开心地欢迎房贷缩紧政策 在7月9日实施。
许多经纪/买家期待的"小阳春"并未实现， 成交量继续比去年减少5%， 而新上市量比去年增加15%。
7月底-8月初我们将可以更清楚地见到打房政策初期的效应。
我们将继续见到房源滞销 (尤其公寓 及 小于~$1.2M 的独立屋)
但温西/列治文独立屋也将继续下滑。
房价下跌的事实将被大众慢慢接受，成为茶余饭后的讨论话题。
购屋者信心将在恶性循环下下跌。
更明显的卖方降价将在夏末秋初呈现。
GF 会继续提供数据及分析。
Wednesday, 11 July 2012
Saturday, 7 July 2012
Early July updates 7月初大温房市快报
房贷新政实施前的最后一个礼拜,卖方期盼的"小阳春" :
7月1-6日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 475 vs 499 (下降5%)
新上市: 1142 vs 979 (上升17%)
比例: 42% vs 51% (差9%)
大温地区这一周有几个特高价位(数百万)成交，在总成交量稀少的情况下，将拉高本月独立屋均价。
7月独立屋均价可能与6月持平，或稍升。
7月1-6日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 475 vs 499 (下降5%)
新上市: 1142 vs 979 (上升17%)
比例: 42% vs 51% (差9%)
大温地区这一周有几个特高价位(数百万)成交，在总成交量稀少的情况下，将拉高本月独立屋均价。
7月独立屋均价可能与6月持平，或稍升。
Thursday, 5 July 2012
温哥华太阳报: "买方市场不代表是买房时机 - 再等一等，价位必跌"
第一次看见在太阳报这一等级的主流媒体 (大量资金来自地产经纪/开发商广告) 刊登如此看跌房市的新闻。
" Just because the real estate industry has heralded a buyer’s market, doesn’t mean it’s time to buy."
买方市场不代表是买房时机
" A stock market investor would likely wait for the market (or the share price) to bottom out before laying down hard-earned (or borrowed) cash to add to his or her portfolio. Again, a homebuyer would be well advised to follow that example."
A buyer’s market, or wishful thinking?
It takes more than just a greater supply of homes to entice homebuyers to enter market
" Just because the real estate industry has heralded a buyer’s market, doesn’t mean it’s time to buy."
买方市场不代表是买房时机
" A stock market investor would likely wait for the market (or the share price) to bottom out before laying down hard-earned (or borrowed) cash to add to his or her portfolio. Again, a homebuyer would be well advised to follow that example."
现在还不是买房时机，投资者应耐心等待抄底。
" Eventually, tighter mortgage rules, high household debt, rising interest rates, overbuilding of condominiums and townhomes, and a slowdown in offshore investment will begin to bite and prices should start to decline.
最后，紧缩的房贷，高升的家庭负债率，逐渐升高的利率，过度兴建的公寓及城市屋，及减缓的海外资产流入，将带动房价下跌。
" One can understand the real estate industry’s hope for a buyer’s market — its members need sales to earn a living. But existing conditions in Vancouver, and other places in B.C., constitute a buyer’s market only if money is no object."
我们可以了解，地产经纪鼓吹所谓"买方市场"一词，是为了刺激买方出手买房，进而赚中介费，赚钱养家。 但是目前事实上的房市状况，完全不是应该买房的时机 (除非你不在意多花钱)。
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/buyer+market+wishful+thinking/6889931/story.html
" Eventually, tighter mortgage rules, high household debt, rising interest rates, overbuilding of condominiums and townhomes, and a slowdown in offshore investment will begin to bite and prices should start to decline.
最后，紧缩的房贷，高升的家庭负债率，逐渐升高的利率，过度兴建的公寓及城市屋，及减缓的海外资产流入，将带动房价下跌。
" One can understand the real estate industry’s hope for a buyer’s market — its members need sales to earn a living. But existing conditions in Vancouver, and other places in B.C., constitute a buyer’s market only if money is no object."
我们可以了解，地产经纪鼓吹所谓"买方市场"一词，是为了刺激买方出手买房，进而赚中介费，赚钱养家。 但是目前事实上的房市状况，完全不是应该买房的时机 (除非你不在意多花钱)。
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/buyer+market+wishful+thinking/6889931/story.html
Wednesday, 4 July 2012
温西地产经纪卖掉自住房，建议大家趁跌幅还不大，赶快卖房兑现
Time to Cash Out:
Is the Vancouver real estate market heading for another crash?
I’m a REALTOR and I sold my own home 4 weeks ago. It wasn’t too big or too small. It’s only 6 years old and still feels new. I sold because in 6 months my home will be worth less than it is today. I think its time to cash out! Let me explain.....
To ignore the truth doesn’t change the truth. And so it is in the Vancouver real estate lately. Far too often the real estate industry, of which I am obviously a part, makes excuses for slow sales periods, declining prices and difficult negotiations. These excuses are self serving. The facts are simple; real estate is easier to sell when prices are going up, realtors are happier when more houses are selling and open houses are more fun when buyers come to look. However, the good times pass like the bad ones do. I would suggest that good times have passed in the Vancouver real estate market, at least for the foreseeable future。。.
上钩的鱼愈来愈少...
独立屋 成交量 下跌最多的区域排名:
西温 (跌 65%)
Jun/12 = 47 sales
Jun/11 = 134 sales
Port Moody (跌 65%)
Jun/12 = 11 sales
Jun/11 = 31 sales
列治文 (跌 52%)
Jun/12 = 76 sales
Jun/11 = 158 sales
温西 (跌 52%)
Jun/12 = 102 sales
Jun/11 = 213 sales
北温 (跌 52%)
Jun/12 = 73 sales
JUn/11 = 153 sales
温东 (跌 41%)
Jun/12 = 107 sales
Jun/11 = 180 sales
高贵林 (跌 31%)
Jun/12 = 101 sales
Jun/11 = 147 sales
本拿比 (跌 31%)
Jun/12 = 83 sales
Jun/11 = 120 sales
西温 (跌 65%)
Jun/12 = 47 sales
Jun/11 = 134 sales
Port Moody (跌 65%)
Jun/12 = 11 sales
Jun/11 = 31 sales
列治文 (跌 52%)
Jun/12 = 76 sales
Jun/11 = 158 sales
温西 (跌 52%)
Jun/12 = 102 sales
Jun/11 = 213 sales
北温 (跌 52%)
Jun/12 = 73 sales
JUn/11 = 153 sales
温东 (跌 41%)
Jun/12 = 107 sales
Jun/11 = 180 sales
高贵林 (跌 31%)
Jun/12 = 101 sales
Jun/11 = 147 sales
本拿比 (跌 31%)
Jun/12 = 83 sales
Jun/11 = 120 sales
Sunday, 1 July 2012
Greater Vancouver SFH Avg Price down to DEC 2010 levels
大温 独立屋 均价
2012-6月 1,061,067
2012-5月 1,073,311 -1.1% (环比)
2012-2月 1,235,244 -14.1% (史上最高点)
2011-6月 1,215,265 -12.7% (同比)
均价已跌至 2010年12月范围。
2012-6月 1,061,067
2012-5月 1,073,311 -1.1% (环比)
2012-2月 1,235,244 -14.1% (史上最高点)
2011-6月 1,215,265 -12.7% (同比)
均价已跌至 2010年12月范围。
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