Tuesday, 13 December 2011

多伦多资深realtor 在CityTV 预测明年房价将开始大跌，已套现所有房产，改为租房

有25年经验的多伦多资深realtor Raza Kizilbash， 12月12日在CityTV 预测明年开始房价将大跌，跌幅他预测为25%.
他已套现所有房产，改为租房。

"This is a catastrophe about to happen, that's why I'm worried that people who have properties, they're going to lose big time."

Raza has a number of listings here in the beach area, he's starting to notice more and more "New Price" (Reduced Price) signs.

He had to drop one property from 575k to 450k in order to sell it.

December 12, 2011
CityNews anchor and reporter Tom Hayes talks to one long-time Toronto real-estate agent who is forecasting a stormy future when it comes to housing prices.

http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/videos/174666

Monday, 12 December 2011

Carney 在为明年紧缩房贷新政铺路?

加拿大央行总裁再次警告，加拿大人民负债过重，不顾自己能力地花钱- 尤其是花在房地产上的投资。

大傻个人认为，明年年初政府再次推出紧缩房贷新政的几率为60%

[Canadians ‘consuming’ beyond means: Mark Carney]
Dec 12, 2011 10:26 PM ET
- Carney’s on a streak of household-debt-warning speeches of late. Is he paving the way for mortgage rule changes in 2012??

“…Carney said that Canada’s relatively low public and business debt present a unique opportunity to build a stronger economy for the future.

But he cautioned once again that Canadian households need to end their spending splurge, particularly on homes, now that their debt levels have reached 149 per cent of income, a higher figure than in the U.S. or Britain.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/busines.....urope.html

Saturday, 10 December 2011

Scotiabank 缩紧投资类房产按揭贷款

主要三项改变：
1.投资房总数上限为5处房产（含在其他银行有贷款的物业）
2.只能申请5年封闭式按揭贷款（含浮动和固定利率）
3.利率高于自住房按揭贷款

[Scotiabank tightens mortgage lending rules for rental units]
December 09, 2011

Scotiabank has long been an investor-friendly lender. But recently, Scotia Mortgage Authority (SMA) made its rental financing program notably more restrictive.

SMA now:

1. Limits borrowers to five rental properties, including those financed elsewhere (there was no official limit previously)

2. Restricts rental mortgages to 5-year closed terms (fixed or variable)

3. Upcharges the rate for rental deals (whereas before it didn’t)

On a positive note, SMA says it has loosened its net worth requirement on rental applications (which is now 10% of each property’s value, up to $50,000 per property).

….
Apart from the reasoning above, Calum says the changes may also be risk-driven.

“There is a growing concern that there is a potentially unhealthy demand for residential real estate investments,” he said.

“The changes signal a clear indication that Scotiabank has a decreased appetite for real estate investors who have significant exposure to the residential real estate investment market.”

“People will generally allow themselves to become delinquent on (default on) investment property mortgage payments before they will allow themselves to default on their principal residence mortgage payments—for the simple reason that people put priority on basic shelter needs.”

“Clearly having one of the biggest mortgage lenders in the country tightening up credit to this group is not good news for the segment in the short term.”

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2011/12/whats-behind-scotias-rental-changes.html#more
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个人认为，继Scotiabank 之后，我们将在数月内见到加拿大其他主要银行跟进，拉高买房(尤其是投资房) 的门槛，以求减低银行本身在房价下跌情况下的风险。

Thursday, 8 December 2011

有关房贷政策的再次紧缩

Europe's debt crisis a risk here, Bank of Canada warns

Record household debt expected to rise

A major area of concern for the bank is the high level of indebtedness of Canadian households that have taken advantage of the low interest rate environment of the past several years to buy homes, cars and other items on credit.

Although household debt-to-income is now at a record 149 per cent, higher than even in the United States, the bank fully expects that ratio to increase further.

That leaves Canadian households vulnerable to a shock, such as a sharp rise in unemployment caused by an economic slowdown or a significant decline in house prices, which would sap household wealth.

The bank regards the situation serious enough that it advises the government to "continuously assess the risks arising from the financial situation of the household sector."

Recently, the International Monetary Fund said Ottawa may need to again revisit eligibility rules for obtaining mortgages, even though the federal government have tightened conditions three times in as many years.

The bank doesn't go that far, but notes that after March — the last time mortgage requirements were stiffened — mortgage credit slowed, but has since picked up.

---------------> 个人认为2012年初政府再次实施房贷紧缩政策的几率为 >50%