Friday, 11 October 2013

Are we seeing demand for Vancouver RE beginning to run out of steam?

It had been discussed that the daily MLS stats (see my twitter feed @greaterfoolvan) represent sales that actually occurred >2 weeks ago, just that they're officially entered into MLS system now.

As was discussed last month,
"Back in June, RBC raised its 5Y Special Fixed Rate from 3.09% to 3.19% on June 10, then 3.39% on June 24.
With Fixed Rate on the upswing since early/mid June, the 90-day low-rate holds are starting to expire about [mid-September].  The 120-day low-rate holds will expire by [mid October]".

This week's weakened sales potentially reflect the early phase of "demand tapering" starting in late September.  The rate of month-over-month sales decline (vs previous years' trends) for the next couple months will be interesting to watch. (I'm predicting a sales drop-off worse than avg seasonal trends)

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