Will inflation keep boosting house prices? Don't bet on it

通膨会让房价继续上升吗?  放弃这个想法吧。

BEN RABIDOUX

Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Nov. 06 2012

“Looking ahead to the next five years, the stimulative conditions that have allowed exceptionally strong real house price growth over the past decade will no longer be in play: Interest rates remain near record lows with little downside potential while credit availability is being tightened by prudent new rules implemented by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and other Canadian regulators.

It is exceptionally likely that real house prices will fall over the next five years. And if this should coincide with a low inflation environment, as I suspect it will, we will likely be looking at outright price declines, and potentially significant declines at that.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/will-inflation-keep-boosting-house-prices-dont-bet-on-it/article4792362/

Battle of Vancouver: Condo Tank Battle

Condo Front:  Tank Battle

(each tank = 1% YoY change)

Battle of Vancouver: Condo Front

Battle for Condos is underway!

Areas with Positive Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bulls.
Areas with Negative Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bears.

Update from the Condo frontlines:
REBGV:  Vancouver West, at 0% YoY, and 0.2% MoM, has both sides evenly matched.
FVREB:  Langley will soon be controlled by Bears.

Battle of Vancouver

The Battle is underway!

Areas with Positive Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bulls.
Areas with Negative Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bears.

Update from the S.F.H. frontlines:
REBGV:  New West is about to fall into bears' hand.. urr.. paws.
FVREB:  North Delta is about to become bear territory.

Richmond Town House HPI YoY % Change

列治文城市屋 指标价同比变化%

Global TV: The presale condo market is dying in Vancouver

Global BC 电视台晚间新闻: 温哥华楼花市场"濒死"

Global BC News Hour - Condo Pre-Sales
Fri, Nov 2 - People aren't lining up for condo pre-sales the way they used to.
大家已不像以往大排长龙抢楼花了。

"The presale condo market is dying in Vancouver"
温哥华楼花市场正在死去。

"One of Vancouver's top realtors says there is no incentive right now to buy a presale condo in Vancouver."
"If you look back a year or two ago.. everything was 10% overpriced, now that the market has dipped about 5-10%, now we're seeing maybe a 20% gap in presale [prices]."
温哥华著名地产经纪说，"现在没有理由买大温楼花。 一两年前楼花比市价高估了10%， 现在市场已跌了5-10%， 造成楼花有20%的价差"

"You gotta remember you're not going to get possession of a presale in 3-4 years. You don't have any security whether you can get a mortgage at that time. You don't know what the mortgage rate will be in 3-4 years. Unless you can stand this kind of risk, you should not be in the pre-sale market"
律师: "你必须了解你在三四年后才能拿到盖好的楼花。在这期间，你没有保证那时是否能拿到贷款。你不知道那时候利率是多少。 除非你有庞大的承受风险能力，否则你不该现在进入楼花市场"
http://www.globaltvbc.com/video/cond...018376#stories

October YoY Sales Stats by region

温西: Van West
　　成交量: -13% 
　　成交/上市比: 46% vs 41%
　　指标价: -7.7% (-6.5%，-3.7%，0%) (过去几个月与去年的同比数据)
　　中位价: -1.7% 

列治文: Richmond
　　成交量: -25% 
　　成交/上市比: 38% vs 49%
　　HPI 指标价: -4.0% (-4.2%,-3.7%,-3.9%)
　　Median 中位价: +3.8% 

本拿比: Burnaby
　　成交量: -40%
　　成交/上市比: 41% vs 66%
　　HPI指标价: +2.4% (+4.2%,+5.2%,+3.9%)
　　Median 中位价: -5.5% 

温东: Van East
　　成交量: -26% 
　　成交/上市比: 43% vs 63%
　　HPI 指标价: +1.9% (+3.2%,+4.8%,+5.5%)
　　Median 中位价: -1.5% 

高贵林: Coquitlam
　　成交量: -20% 
　　成交/上市比: 49% vs 51%
　　HPI 指标价: +2.8% (+3.6%,+3.7%,+4.3%)
　　Median 中位价: -2.7%