9月底 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
Sales 成交量: 1510 vs 2246 (同比下降33% YoY,环比下降8% MoM)
New List 新上市: 5230 vs 5680 (下降8%)
Ratio比例: 29% vs 40% (差11%)
Months of Inventory:
滞销量:12-12.4月 (预计) vs 7.2月 (同比)
大温地区滞销量在9月底将达到12-12.4个月,比上个月 (10.7个月)再增约1.5个月的滞销房源,
比7月 (8.6个月) 增加4个月的滞销房源,完全深入买方市场
2012 滞销程度与 08年相当,甚至超过。
年份 成交量 新上市 成交/上市
2001 2155 3155 68.3%
2002 2476 3447 71.8%
2003 3357 4082 82.2%
2004 2853 4946 57.7%
2005 3344 4590 72.9%
2006 2519 5115 49.2%
2007 2776 4770 58.2%
2008 1585 6142 25.8%
2009 3559 5746 61.9%
2010 2220 4731 46.9%
2011 2246 5680 39.5%
2012 ~1510 ~5230 ~29%
今年看来是最近10多年成交量最低的9月, 低过2008。
Saturday, 29 September 2012
Tuesday, 25 September 2012
大多新公寓成交量急跌 67.2%, 有史以来8月最低
http://www.bildgta.ca/media_releases...ail.asp?id=888
Canada New Home Sales Plunge 64 Percent; Lowest August on Record
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...4-percent.html
步向大温后尘。
Monday, 24 September 2012
Should we stop encouraging home ownership?
"我们应该停止呼吁他人买房"
Should we stop encouraging home ownership?
Should we stop encouraging home ownership?
, CBC News
Posted: Sep 24, 2012
"I don't know that home ownership should be a right and that it should be backed by taxpayer dollars and kind of be the prime mandate of a Crown corporation," says Ben Rabidoux, creator of the Economic Analyst blog, which looks into housing and mortgage trends.
9月21日 update
9月1-21日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 1129 vs 1657 (下降32%)
新上市: 4033 vs 4176 (下降4%)
比例: 28% vs 40% (差12%)
预计月底成交量: 1530 vs 2246 (同比下降32%,环比下降7%)
预计月底总房源: 18900 vs 16085 (同比上升18%)
滞销量:12.2-12.6月 (预计) vs 7.2月 (同比)
大温地区滞销量在9月底将达到12.2-12.6个月,比上个月 (10.7个月)再增约两个月的滞销房源,比7月 (8.6个月) 增加4个月的滞销房源,完全深入买方市场
2012 滞销程度与 08年相当,甚至超过。
年份 成交量 新上市 成交/上市
2001 2155 3155 68.3%
2002 2476 3447 71.8%
2003 3357 4082 82.2%
2004 2853 4946 57.7%
2005 3344 4590 72.9%
2006 2519 5115 49.2%
2007 2776 4770 58.2%
2008 1585 6142 25.8%
2009 3559 5746 61.9%
2010 2220 4731 46.9%
2011 2246 5680 39.5%
2012 ~1530 ~5500 ~28%
今年可能是最近10多年成交量最低的9月, 低过2008。
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 1129 vs 1657 (下降32%)
新上市: 4033 vs 4176 (下降4%)
比例: 28% vs 40% (差12%)
预计月底成交量: 1530 vs 2246 (同比下降32%,环比下降7%)
预计月底总房源: 18900 vs 16085 (同比上升18%)
滞销量:12.2-12.6月 (预计) vs 7.2月 (同比)
大温地区滞销量在9月底将达到12.2-12.6个月,比上个月 (10.7个月)再增约两个月的滞销房源,比7月 (8.6个月) 增加4个月的滞销房源,完全深入买方市场
2012 滞销程度与 08年相当,甚至超过。
年份 成交量 新上市 成交/上市
2001 2155 3155 68.3%
2002 2476 3447 71.8%
2003 3357 4082 82.2%
2004 2853 4946 57.7%
2005 3344 4590 72.9%
2006 2519 5115 49.2%
2007 2776 4770 58.2%
2008 1585 6142 25.8%
2009 3559 5746 61.9%
2010 2220 4731 46.9%
2011 2246 5680 39.5%
2012 ~1530 ~5500 ~28%
今年可能是最近10多年成交量最低的9月, 低过2008。
Sunday, 16 September 2012
列治文地产经纪: 跌幅加大，将持续几年，越早卖亏越少
上个月预测Richmond独立屋3年内下跌30%的地产经纪 James Wong， 昨日刚发表8月份列治文地产分析:
“August was another disappointment for many home sellers who were hopeful of selling their homes.
The real estate market in Richmond deteriorated further in August.The lack of buying activities and large number of listings continued to exert pressure on home sellers to cut their prices in order to sell their homes. There are many more homes listed at or below their city assessment values.
八月再次带来了另卖方失望的消息。列治文八月房市恶化加剧。 在买方缺乏，及总房源持高的现状下，卖方面临巨大压力降价。 本月叫价低于政府估价的状况更为普遍。
There are no signs of the market in Richmond getting better. With the onset of the seasonally slower months in the fall, it is unlikely the last 3 months of 2012 will bring any relief to home sellers who are desperate to sell.
For sellers who have to sell, the only way out is to cut prices… not just 5%, a much deeper cut of 10% to 15% is required.
列治文房市没有任何改善的迹象。年底前必须卖房的屋主将面临更大挑战。 急着脱手的屋主必须降价。不是区区5%， 而是10%至15%。
A prolonged period of low sales, and declining home prices could take many years to play out. Declining home prices will erode seller confidence, resulting in more motivated home sellers to cut prices to sell before home prices drop further.
这个价量齐跌的房市很可能会持续许多年。 下降的房价必将腐蚀卖方的信心，造成更多必须卖的屋主积极降价，造成整体房价持续下降。
A real estate down cycle is already in motion, and just like from 1995 to 2001, the real estate market in Richmond will have a persistent high level or homes for sale, and few buyers willing or able to buy due to tighter lending rules.
房市已经进入下跌周期，就像1995-2001年一般。 列治文房市将面临多年的低迷成交量及大量房源。 政府新一轮的"打房"政策将抑制买家买房的能力。
Richmond detached homes over $1,000,000 are not seeing much buying interest. With total active listings of 721 and average sale around 26 homes the past 3 months, there are 26 months supply of homes. For detached homes over $1,500,000, there are currently 366 homes for sale. With an average past 3 months sale of 12 homes, this translates into 30 months supply of homes.
列治文大于$1M 的独立屋房市不受青睐，现在房源为721， 而3个月来平均每月才卖出26户，房源滞销达到超过26个月。
列治文大于$1.5M 的独立屋房市更加低迷，现在房源为366， 而3个月来平均每月才卖出12户，房源滞销达到超过30个月。
Early sellers would consider themselves the smart ones, cashing out long before others!
早起的鸟儿有虫吃。 比别人早卖出兑现的屋主为智者。
http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?p=841
“August was another disappointment for many home sellers who were hopeful of selling their homes.
The real estate market in Richmond deteriorated further in August.The lack of buying activities and large number of listings continued to exert pressure on home sellers to cut their prices in order to sell their homes. There are many more homes listed at or below their city assessment values.
八月再次带来了另卖方失望的消息。列治文八月房市恶化加剧。 在买方缺乏，及总房源持高的现状下，卖方面临巨大压力降价。 本月叫价低于政府估价的状况更为普遍。
There are no signs of the market in Richmond getting better. With the onset of the seasonally slower months in the fall, it is unlikely the last 3 months of 2012 will bring any relief to home sellers who are desperate to sell.
For sellers who have to sell, the only way out is to cut prices… not just 5%, a much deeper cut of 10% to 15% is required.
列治文房市没有任何改善的迹象。年底前必须卖房的屋主将面临更大挑战。 急着脱手的屋主必须降价。不是区区5%， 而是10%至15%。
A prolonged period of low sales, and declining home prices could take many years to play out. Declining home prices will erode seller confidence, resulting in more motivated home sellers to cut prices to sell before home prices drop further.
这个价量齐跌的房市很可能会持续许多年。 下降的房价必将腐蚀卖方的信心，造成更多必须卖的屋主积极降价，造成整体房价持续下降。
A real estate down cycle is already in motion, and just like from 1995 to 2001, the real estate market in Richmond will have a persistent high level or homes for sale, and few buyers willing or able to buy due to tighter lending rules.
房市已经进入下跌周期，就像1995-2001年一般。 列治文房市将面临多年的低迷成交量及大量房源。 政府新一轮的"打房"政策将抑制买家买房的能力。
Richmond detached homes over $1,000,000 are not seeing much buying interest. With total active listings of 721 and average sale around 26 homes the past 3 months, there are 26 months supply of homes. For detached homes over $1,500,000, there are currently 366 homes for sale. With an average past 3 months sale of 12 homes, this translates into 30 months supply of homes.
列治文大于$1M 的独立屋房市不受青睐，现在房源为721， 而3个月来平均每月才卖出26户，房源滞销达到超过26个月。
列治文大于$1.5M 的独立屋房市更加低迷，现在房源为366， 而3个月来平均每月才卖出12户，房源滞销达到超过30个月。
Early sellers would consider themselves the smart ones, cashing out long before others!
早起的鸟儿有虫吃。 比别人早卖出兑现的屋主为智者。
http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?p=841
Saturday, 15 September 2012
Thursday, 13 September 2012
BC government to immediately launch new round of major cuts
BC 省政府将立即开始大幅度删减开支。
将停止征新工作，拒绝公营主管人员加薪，同时以更强硬的态度对待谈判桌另一边的工会。
The B.C. government will immediately launch a new round of major cuts because of a three-year, $1.1-billion hit to provincial revenues caused by plummeting natural gas prices, Finance Minister Mike de Jong announced Thursday.
Speaking to reporters, de Jong promised an immediate hiring freeze across government and a wage freeze for public sector managers, including those at schools, universities and health organizations. He also signalled a possible ratcheting-up of the already tense negotiations between the province and its public sector unions.
“Call these austerity measures — they are designed to immediately curtail spending in areas where government has some discretion”
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