Thursday, 21 June 2012
好好想想 "No more CMHC-insured mortgage to homes >$1,000,000"
若好好想想第三条新政:
"政府将停止担保房价大于$1M的贷款"
这将影响高收入的当地买家。
原本收入20多万的人可以用10% 首付买下一个$1.2M房 (首付$150K, 贷款$1.05M)
新政实施后，政府不再提供小于20%首付的贷款给价位超过$1M 的房，
这买家在7月9日后必须要拿出$240k 的首付 (20%) 才能贷到款买这$1.2M 房。
首付要多拿出近 十万。
这新政不但会影响首次买房者的低价位房，亦会影响大于一百万的独立屋。
只是。。大温独立屋的均价大于一百万。。某些区的独立屋均价近两百万。。。
大温房市将会是此新政实施后最大的受害者。
如何面对7月9日政府房贷新政 / What are the consequences of new mortgage rules?
加国财长Flaherty 在无预警的情况下公布了4项CMHC紧缩房贷的新政。
本来GF预测他在3月政府制定预算的时候会提出打房政策，当他那时并没有。GF还以为Flaherty 要改由 OSFI 金融管理机构来缩紧房贷 (是已经发生了), 没想到Flaherty 在OSFI 规定发表的当天，同时制定了CMHC打房政策. 这政策在2.5周后 (7月9日) 便生效，远快于以往打房政策给的2个月缓冲期。
以下为6/21公布的OSFI新政: Guideline B-20 - Residential Mortgage Underwriting Practices and Procedures
1. HELOC 房屋净资产抵押贷款上限减至65%
2. 严格化收入证明
3. 养房费(包括电费，房屋保险，地税， 等等)及其他贷款将加入借款债务比例的计算
以下为6/21公布的CMHC新政: http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/21/ottawa-cuts-mortgage-amortizations-to-25-years/
1. 房贷最长偿还期从30年缩减为25年
2. Re-finance 时可借的数量,从85%降至80%
3. 中止(CMHC政府担保的)贷款大于100万
4. 借款债务比例将设定上限:39%
大多数首次买房者没有20%首付，所以需要申请CMHC 政府担保的贷款。
这些新政影响最快/最大的就是首次买房者及以房买房的炒房客。
若你是卖方: 在7月9日前应尽量快快成交。因为之后，大量买方能借到的贷款会明显减少。
所谓的"刚需" 还是受限于能拿到的贷款量。
若你是买方: 不要在现在至8月买房 - 其实最好今年不要买房。 新政实施后，有能力与你竞争的买家将明显减少， 房价将加速下滑。
GF 预测，大温房市将在2012下半加速下滑。 (大温房市本来就已处于下跌管道，现在将更加严重)。 公寓/城市屋/独立屋将全受到打击，而最先受打击的是首次买房者购买的房型。
本来GF预测他在3月政府制定预算的时候会提出打房政策，当他那时并没有。GF还以为Flaherty 要改由 OSFI 金融管理机构来缩紧房贷 (是已经发生了), 没想到Flaherty 在OSFI 规定发表的当天，同时制定了CMHC打房政策. 这政策在2.5周后 (7月9日) 便生效，远快于以往打房政策给的2个月缓冲期。
以下为6/21公布的OSFI新政: Guideline B-20 - Residential Mortgage Underwriting Practices and Procedures
1. HELOC 房屋净资产抵押贷款上限减至65%
2. 严格化收入证明
3. 养房费(包括电费，房屋保险，地税， 等等)及其他贷款将加入借款债务比例的计算
以下为6/21公布的CMHC新政: http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/21/ottawa-cuts-mortgage-amortizations-to-25-years/
1. 房贷最长偿还期从30年缩减为25年
2. Re-finance 时可借的数量,从85%降至80%
3. 中止(CMHC政府担保的)贷款大于100万
4. 借款债务比例将设定上限:39%
大多数首次买房者没有20%首付，所以需要申请CMHC 政府担保的贷款。
这些新政影响最快/最大的就是首次买房者及以房买房的炒房客。
若你是卖方: 在7月9日前应尽量快快成交。因为之后，大量买方能借到的贷款会明显减少。
所谓的"刚需" 还是受限于能拿到的贷款量。
若你是买方: 不要在现在至8月买房 - 其实最好今年不要买房。 新政实施后，有能力与你竞争的买家将明显减少， 房价将加速下滑。
GF 预测，大温房市将在2012下半加速下滑。 (大温房市本来就已处于下跌管道，现在将更加严重)。 公寓/城市屋/独立屋将全受到打击，而最先受打击的是首次买房者购买的房型。
加国财长明日将从4个方向紧缩房贷: 1.停止30年贷款 2..
重点如下:
1. 房贷最长偿还期从30年缩减为25年
2. Re-finance 时可借的数量,从85%降至80%
3. 中止(高度杠杆)贷款大于100万
4. 借款债务比例将设定上限:39%
6月21日早晨 财长Flaherty 将在记者会上公开所有细节
Mortgage rules to be tightened further by Ottawa
Amortization rules, home equity borrowing limits to be more strict
Jun 20, 2012 9:07 PM ET
The government announced Wednesday it will reduce the maximum amortization period for a government-insured mortgage, lowering it from 30 to 25 years, and also drop the upper limit that Canadians can borrow against their home equity from 85 per cent to 80 per cent.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stor...tightened.html
Ottawa will announce two other changes, according to a source. It will no longer allow high-ratio mortgages over $1-million, and it will cap the gross debt service (which looks at a consumer’s total debt payments as a percentage of their income) at 39 per cent. While many banks tend not to allow mortgages over 40 per cent, there had been no official rule in place.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle4358876/
1. 房贷最长偿还期从30年缩减为25年
2. Re-finance 时可借的数量,从85%降至80%
3. 中止(高度杠杆)贷款大于100万
4. 借款债务比例将设定上限:39%
6月21日早晨 财长Flaherty 将在记者会上公开所有细节
Mortgage rules to be tightened further by Ottawa
Amortization rules, home equity borrowing limits to be more strict
Jun 20, 2012 9:07 PM ET
The government announced Wednesday it will reduce the maximum amortization period for a government-insured mortgage, lowering it from 30 to 25 years, and also drop the upper limit that Canadians can borrow against their home equity from 85 per cent to 80 per cent.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stor...tightened.html
Ottawa will announce two other changes, according to a source. It will no longer allow high-ratio mortgages over $1-million, and it will cap the gross debt service (which looks at a consumer’s total debt payments as a percentage of their income) at 39 per cent. While many banks tend not to allow mortgages over 40 per cent, there had been no official rule in place.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle4358876/
Wednesday, 20 June 2012
GF 年初预测除了timing 早了几个月，其他极为精准
以下为GF在2月底作的预测 - 除了晚了3个月实现以外,极为准确。
www.westca.com/Forums/...ml#3952833
 GreaterFool 写道: |
| 3月展望 GF认为,3月份财长Flaherty 将实施至少一项"打房"政策。 GF在此,以可能性大小排名,列出最可能实施的政策: 可能性最大 1. 再次缩短最长偿还期,从30年降至25年 <- 准确! 2. 缩紧自雇/Stated Income 者的房贷+/-HELOC 借款额度 <- 准确! 3. 再次减少Re-finance 时可借的数量,从85%降至80% (借此控制HELOC贷款量) <- 准确! 4. 要求银行提高自身的资本要求,提高流动资金,及减低杠杆比率 (这可能部分已经暗中实施) <- 准确! 5. 升高最低首付,从5% 增至7.5% 或 10% 6. 调高CMHC房贷保险的保费 7. 设置CMHC政府担保房贷的上限,譬如高过$800k 的房屋,政府不提供CMHC保险 (转由银行自行承担)<- 准确! 8. 强迫银行承担一部分贷款风险 (譬如令银行承担5%的房贷损失,而CMHC承担95% ) <- CMHC总担保金额上限未被提升,目前已濒临上限,未来4年将大幅减少提供保险。 可能性最小 |
www.westca.com/Forums/...ml#3952833
6月20日讯: 加国财长明日将紧缩房贷，停止30年贷款。
GF 本来预测将在2月发生的，虽然晚了4个月，终于还是发生了。。
Mortgage rules to be tightened further by Ottawa
Amortization rules, home equity borrowing limits to be more strict
Jun 20, 2012 9:07 PM ET
The federal Finance Department is moving to further tighter mortgage rules to address concerns over high Canadian household debt.
The government announced Wednesday it will reduce the maximum amortization period for a government-insured mortgage, lowering it from 30 to 25 years, and also drop the upper limit that Canadians can borrow against their home equity from 85 per cent to 80 per cent.
Buyers who purchase a home with a down payment of less than 20 per cent of its value are required to purchase government-backed mortgage insurance through Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
Under the new rules, mortgages amortized over a period longer than 25 years will no longer qualify for that insurance, making it effectively impossible to get a highly leveraged mortgage of more than 25 years in Canada.
The announcement marks the fourth time in four years that the government has clamped down on mortgage rules. It first moved in 2008 by cutting the maximum amortization period to 35 years from 40 and requiring a minimum down payment of five per cent.
Further changes were announced in February 2010, and came into effect April of that year.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stor...tightened.html
Mortgage rules to be tightened further by Ottawa
Amortization rules, home equity borrowing limits to be more strict
Jun 20, 2012 9:07 PM ET
The federal Finance Department is moving to further tighter mortgage rules to address concerns over high Canadian household debt.
The government announced Wednesday it will reduce the maximum amortization period for a government-insured mortgage, lowering it from 30 to 25 years, and also drop the upper limit that Canadians can borrow against their home equity from 85 per cent to 80 per cent.
Buyers who purchase a home with a down payment of less than 20 per cent of its value are required to purchase government-backed mortgage insurance through Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
Under the new rules, mortgages amortized over a period longer than 25 years will no longer qualify for that insurance, making it effectively impossible to get a highly leveraged mortgage of more than 25 years in Canada.
The announcement marks the fourth time in four years that the government has clamped down on mortgage rules. It first moved in 2008 by cutting the maximum amortization period to 35 years from 40 and requiring a minimum down payment of five per cent.
Further changes were announced in February 2010, and came into effect April of that year.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stor...tightened.html
Friday, 15 June 2012
6月中销售数据
6月1-15日 (2012) 大温地区 住宅单位
售出单位: 1321 (比去年同期下跌23%)
新上市单位: 3008 (比去年同期持平)
售出/新上市 比例: 43.9%
预测6月底
总成交: 2500-2600 (比去年下跌~20%) *接近2008
总新上市: 5700-6000 (比去年持平) *只低于2008
总房源: 19000 = 需要7.5个月来消化 (以本月成交量计算)
= 继续深入买方市场 (>6个月房源)
__________________________________
历年来6月大温地区官方销售记录:
年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2002 2689 3850 69.8%
2003 3525 4301 82.0%
2004 3501 5594 62.6%
2005 4333 4742 91.4%
2006 3951 5460 72.4%
2007 4244 5533 76.7%
2008 2425 6546 37.0%
2009 4259 5372 79.3%
2010 2972 5544 53.6%
2011 3262 5793 56.3%
换句话说,历年的6月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有6-7个售出
而今年6月,每新上市10个房只有4个售出
售出单位: 1321 (比去年同期下跌23%)
新上市单位: 3008 (比去年同期持平)
售出/新上市 比例: 43.9%
预测6月底
总成交: 2500-2600 (比去年下跌~20%) *接近2008
总新上市: 5700-6000 (比去年持平) *只低于2008
总房源: 19000 = 需要7.5个月来消化 (以本月成交量计算)
= 继续深入买方市场 (>6个月房源)
__________________________________
历年来6月大温地区官方销售记录:
年份: 成交量 /新上市量 / 比例
2002 2689 3850 69.8%
2003 3525 4301 82.0%
2004 3501 5594 62.6%
2005 4333 4742 91.4%
2006 3951 5460 72.4%
2007 4244 5533 76.7%
2008 2425 6546 37.0%
2009 4259 5372 79.3%
2010 2972 5544 53.6%
2011 3262 5793 56.3%
换句话说,历年的6月, 通常可以见到每新上市10个房,就有6-7个售出
而今年6月,每新上市10个房只有4个售出
CREA Average price map
加拿大地产协会刚发表全国 均价 同比地图
http://crea.ca/content/national-average-price-map
BC: -12.9%
Vancouver: -11.9%
Victoria: -4%
Calgary: +3.2%
Toronto: +6.4%
Canada: -0.3%
http://crea.ca/content/national-average-price-map
BC: -12.9%
Vancouver: -11.9%
Victoria: -4%
Calgary: +3.2%
Toronto: +6.4%
Canada: -0.3%
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)