且继续攀高
Thursday, 15 March 2012
"中国已处于硬着陆状态"
中国经济已经处于"硬着陆"， JP Morgan 驻香港的亚洲金融分析师Mr Mowat说。
Mr Mowat 在2011年荣获最佳亚洲经济分析师runner-up 的奖项。
"如果你研究一下所有数据，你应该停止辩论是否中国经济会软着陆还是硬着陆。 中国已经在硬着陆中了。
Mr Mowat 在2011年荣获最佳亚洲经济分析师runner-up 的奖项。
"如果你研究一下所有数据，你应该停止辩论是否中国经济会软着陆还是硬着陆。 中国已经在硬着陆中了。
Chinese Economy Already in ‘Hard Landing,’ JPMorgan’s Mowat Says
Mar 14, 2012
“If you look at the Chinese data, you should stop debating about a hard landing,” Mowat, who is based in Hong Kong, said at a conference in Singapore yesterday. “China is in a hard landing. Car sales are down, cement production is down, steel production is down, construction stocks are down. It’s not a debate anymore, it’s a fact.” His team was a runner-up for best Asian equity strategists in a 2011 Institutional Investor magazine poll.
Mar 14, 2012
“If you look at the Chinese data, you should stop debating about a hard landing,” Mowat, who is based in Hong Kong, said at a conference in Singapore yesterday. “China is in a hard landing. Car sales are down, cement production is down, steel production is down, construction stocks are down. It’s not a debate anymore, it’s a fact.” His team was a runner-up for best Asian equity strategists in a 2011 Institutional Investor magazine poll.
Wednesday, 14 March 2012
超低固定利率可能无法持久
固定利率是由5 year bond rate 决定的。
虽然1月下旬5 year bond rate 下降 (造成BMO率先开始2.99%固定利率), 但是看来现在5 year bond rate 已经开始悄悄回升。
若继续下去,银行现在的2.99%固定利率将在短期内回升。
大傻评论 ->若利率回升，加上政府若在3月底发表新一轮缩紧房贷政策，将造成购房者资金减少，进而造成房市在晚春/夏季进一步下跌。
聪明(或是有时间等)的人，会不顾当下低利率的诱惑，继续储存首付(或退休金). 等到房贷难借时，就是市场上与你竞争的买房者减少时，也就是房价进一步下跌的时候。
www.bloomberg.com/quot...IND/chart/
虽然1月下旬5 year bond rate 下降 (造成BMO率先开始2.99%固定利率), 但是看来现在5 year bond rate 已经开始悄悄回升。
若继续下去,银行现在的2.99%固定利率将在短期内回升。
大傻评论 ->若利率回升，加上政府若在3月底发表新一轮缩紧房贷政策，将造成购房者资金减少，进而造成房市在晚春/夏季进一步下跌。
聪明(或是有时间等)的人，会不顾当下低利率的诱惑，继续储存首付(或退休金). 等到房贷难借时，就是市场上与你竞争的买房者减少时，也就是房价进一步下跌的时候。
www.bloomberg.com/quot...IND/chart/
Monday, 12 March 2012
3月1-12日大温地区销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交 979 vs 1400 (下跌30%)
新上市 2232 vs 2578 (下跌13%)
比例 43.9% vs 54.3% (差11%)
大傻 评论： 虽然有所谓"春节之后大温房市将启动"之说，现在看来实在不太乐观。
买方看来可能不是借不到钱(银行把关可能开始严格化)，就是不愿意在现在买房，宁愿旁观 (主流媒体从一月便开始不断播报大温大多危险的房市泡沫)。
看来消费者信心可能趋于保守。
大傻继续认为，4月开始的春季房市将大不如预期的火热。 新上市速率可能远高过成交速率， 造成目前供过于求情况的严重化。
RBC 加入TD, CIBC， 预测财长将在月底采取进一步打房政策
Royal Bank of Canada 在3月9日发表的每月经济报告提到, 政府可能在3月29日发表新一轮打房政策。
GF 解说: 就如同GF在大半年前预测过,现在RBC, TD, CIBC 皆建议或预测财长将开始进一步缩紧房贷。
GF 建议今年有意卖房者,加快脚步准备把房子整理好早点推出上市,以拿较好价格。
若3月底真的有打房新政, 则市场最多有1-2个月的缓冲期,因为有些买方可能会(不理智地)抢在Easy Money 结束前,趁着低利率进场。
若等到5,6月再上市,可能已经有大批买家以离开市场, 造成更严重地供过于求的现象。
RBC Financial Markets Monthly report suggests potential for mortgage rule tightening by March 29 Budget.
(page 3) “…This may reflect expectations that the Minister of Finance will tighten mortgage lending rules again in the March 29 Budget that will adequately slow growth in mortgage demand.”
www.rbc.com/economics/...df/fmm.pdf
GF 解说: 就如同GF在大半年前预测过,现在RBC, TD, CIBC 皆建议或预测财长将开始进一步缩紧房贷。
GF 建议今年有意卖房者,加快脚步准备把房子整理好早点推出上市,以拿较好价格。
若3月底真的有打房新政, 则市场最多有1-2个月的缓冲期,因为有些买方可能会(不理智地)抢在Easy Money 结束前,趁着低利率进场。
若等到5,6月再上市,可能已经有大批买家以离开市场, 造成更严重地供过于求的现象。
RBC Financial Markets Monthly report suggests potential for mortgage rule tightening by March 29 Budget.
(page 3) “…This may reflect expectations that the Minister of Finance will tighten mortgage lending rules again in the March 29 Budget that will adequately slow growth in mortgage demand.”
www.rbc.com/economics/...df/fmm.pdf
Sunday, 11 March 2012
Baby Boomer 战后婴儿潮老年化卖房潮无可避免， 有够多人接棒吗?
美国Washington Post 警告，战后婴儿潮从去年已经渐渐步入65岁退休年龄，卖房潮无可避免。
房源在今后十多年可能超过年轻一辈的吸收能力。
大傻翻译: 房市将面临长久的供过于求的时代。
Baby boomers will be selling their homes, but will their children want to buy them?
房源在今后十多年可能超过年轻一辈的吸收能力。
大傻翻译: 房市将面临长久的供过于求的时代。
Baby boomers will be selling their homes, but will their children want to buy them?
03/07/2012
Babyboomers will be vacating more homes than they occupy as they move into nursing homes, move in with their children, or pass away over the next two decades. They’re expected to release a net total of as many as 26 million housing units by 2030, according to the report. And young people might not be willing or able to buy new homes.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/baby-boomers-will-be-selling-their-homes-but-will-their-children-want-to-buy-them/2012/03/07/gIQAQ05ywR_blog.html?wprss=3Dlinkset
加拿大人口比例见下:
As home-owning baby boomers age, they’ll eventually be leaving their homes. But it’s unclear whether the next generation will be eager or willing to buy them, according to a new paper from the Bipartisan Policy Center. As John Pitkin and Dowell Myers wrote in 2008,“The sell-off of seniors’ former housing creates a potential supply that will potentially exceed younger adults’ effective demand.”
Babyboomers will be vacating more homes than they occupy as they move into nursing homes, move in with their children, or pass away over the next two decades. They’re expected to release a net total of as many as 26 million housing units by 2030, according to the report. And young people might not be willing or able to buy new homes.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/baby-boomers-will-be-selling-their-homes-but-will-their-children-want-to-buy-them/2012/03/07/gIQAQ05ywR_blog.html?wprss=3Dlinkset
加拿大人口比例见下:
加拿大就业状况恶化
有些报导止说道加拿大失业率在2月从7.6%降至7.4%， 而没有提到事实上加拿大在2月损失了2800份工作。 而下降的失业率是因为找寻工作的人减少了。
经济分析师们原本预估在2月会增加15000份工作。
大傻继续认为，加拿大失业率及工作品质指数今年将持续恶化。表现将远不如美国。
但是，大傻同时认为，美国前几个月来不断被报导的经济复苏及改善的失业率， 将在几个月后开始走下坡。欧债危机风险将继续上扬，而世界经济在2012年，在居高不下的油价影响下，将更不乐观。
MARCH 09, 2012
Canada's job market lost a net 2,800 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.4% from a nine-month high of 7.6%.
Statistics Canada said a drop in the number of Canadians looking for work led to the slight decrease and that employment remained essentially unchanged since January.
Analysts had expected a gain of 15,000 jobs.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)