Battle of Vancouver: CONDO - Nov 2012

Battle of Vancouver: CONDO

Nov 2012:

- Bear Forces claimed strategic Vancouver West and  Burnaby East

- Bear Forces also gained Langley, but lost Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows to Bulls.

- Richmond became unclaimed

* Areas with Positive Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bulls. 
* Areas with Negative Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bears.
* Each 1% = One Tank.

Last month:

Battle of Vancouver: SFH - Nov 2012

Battle of Vancouver: SFH

Nov 2012:

- As predicted in October, Bear Forces successfully invaded New Westminster.

- Bear Forces also liberated West Vancouver, South Surrey & White Rock.

- The following Bull Territories are facing imminent defeat: Van East, Burnaby East, North Van, North Delta.

* Areas with Positive Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bulls. 
* Areas with Negative Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bears.
* Each 1% = One Tank.

Last month:

Nov 2012 vs 2011 SFH Stats

Vancouver West:

Sales: -36%
Ratio: 48% vs 74%
HPI YoY: -8.4% (-7.7%,-6.5%,-3.7%,0%) worsened YoY trend in past months

Burnaby:
Sales: -42%
Ratio: 49% vs 82%
HPI YoY: +1.5% (+2.4%,+4.2%,+5.2%)

Richmond:
Sales: -25%
Ratio: 55% vs 65%
HPI YoY: -4.2% (-4.0%,-4.2%,-3.7%)

Coquitlam:
Sales: -33%
Ratio: 64% vs 72%
HPI YoY: +2.6% (+2.8%,+3.6%,+3.7%,+4.3%)

Vancouver East:
Sales: -19%
Ratio: 82% vs 74%
HPI YoY: +0.5% (+1.9%,+3.2%,+4.8%,+5.5%)

November REBGV official stats

2012-11 大温房市官方数据 Nov REBGV Stats (PDF)

(for historical stats, click here)

GF: A few points at the start of December

- Dec 2011 had 21 business days, with Dec 24-26 landing on Sat-Sun-Mon.

- Dec 2012 has 19 business days, with Dec 24-26 falling on Mon-Tues-Wed.

- Total Inventory (TI) on first day of Dec 2011: 14182
- Total Inventory (TI) on first day of Dec 2012: 15974 (+13%)
  (REBGV live stats thanks to realtor Paul Boenisch)

- My guess is Dec 2012 sales -30% YoY, -30% MoM (Nov 2012 sales = Dec 2011 sales)

2013 January is projected to have 

+13% TI vs Jan 2012, 

+35% vs Jan 2011,

+39% vs Jan 2010, 

+1.5% vs Jan 2009 (!), 

~+40% vs Jan 2008.

Now let's assume 2013 sales run at -15% YoY, and TI stays at +13% YoY

Projected Months of Inventory in 2013:

MOI  2013 2012 2011
Jan  10.6  8.0  5.7
Feb   7.3  5.5  3.9
Mar   7.0  5.3  3.2
Apr   7.9  5.9  4.4
May   8.3  6.3  4.3
Jun  10.4  7.8  4.6

If this projection is correct, then 2013 will have the MOI trough at 7.0 in March – and that’s still in “Buyer’s Market”!

**Rule of thumb:
Seller's Market = MOI <5
Balanced Market = MOI 5-7
Buyer's Market = MOI >7

This is my "moderately conservative" projection.  I'm leaning toward a -20% or worse YoY sales figures in 2013.

Conclusion: 2013 will be a fun year.

Flaherty "has no regrets" cooling the housing market

Flaherty says he’s not worried about a housing collapse

Dec 3, 2012
“Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is not worried about a housing collapse, saying he is happy he has helped cool the market with the latest round of stricter mortgage rules.
The finance minister says he is also encouraged Canadians are paying down their mortgages and credit cards, and taking on less debt…

... That was caused in part because Flaherty made mortgage payments more expensive in July by dropping the maximum amortization period to 25 years, but the minister says he has no regrets.

A soft landing in housing is better than a boom followed by a bust, he says.”

November unofficial stats

11月1-30日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 1650 vs 2360 (-30%) sales YoY
vs10月: 1650 vs 1931 (-15%) sales MoM
新上市: 2668 vs 3222 (-17%) New list
比例: 63% vs 73%  S/L ratio

Estimated total inventory: 15750 vs 14090 (+12%)
滞销量 MOI:9.5月 (预计) vs 6.0月 (2011)

REBGV region, MOI increased from 9 last month to 9.5 months in November.
We are still well into buyer's market (MOI>7)
Both sales and S/L ratio are second worst in the last 10+ years.
HPI price is expected to continue its downtrend this month.

大温地区滞销量在11月底达到9.5个月,比上个月(9.0个月) 滞销加剧, 继续维持于明显买方市场
今年11月成交量 为十多年来第二低,仅次于2008年。
今年11月成交/新上市比 为十多年来第二低,仅次于2008年。
预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续下跌。

年份 成交 新上市 比例
2001 2614 2697 96.9%
2002 2555 2638 96.9%
2003 3018 2955 102.1%
2004 2486 3234 76.9%
2005 2938 3271 89.8%
2006 2358 3168 74.4%
2007 2883 3377 85.4%
2008 874 3022 28.9%
2009 3083 3653 84.4%
2010 2509 3030 82.8%
2011 2360 3222 73.2%
2012 1650 2668 63% (预测)