Global TV: The presale condo market is dying in Vancouver

Global BC 电视台晚间新闻: 温哥华楼花市场"濒死"

Global BC News Hour - Condo Pre-Sales
Fri, Nov 2 - People aren't lining up for condo pre-sales the way they used to.
大家已不像以往大排长龙抢楼花了。

"The presale condo market is dying in Vancouver"
温哥华楼花市场正在死去。

"One of Vancouver's top realtors says there is no incentive right now to buy a presale condo in Vancouver."
"If you look back a year or two ago.. everything was 10% overpriced, now that the market has dipped about 5-10%, now we're seeing maybe a 20% gap in presale [prices]."
温哥华著名地产经纪说，"现在没有理由买大温楼花。 一两年前楼花比市价高估了10%， 现在市场已跌了5-10%， 造成楼花有20%的价差"

"You gotta remember you're not going to get possession of a presale in 3-4 years. You don't have any security whether you can get a mortgage at that time. You don't know what the mortgage rate will be in 3-4 years. Unless you can stand this kind of risk, you should not be in the pre-sale market"
律师: "你必须了解你在三四年后才能拿到盖好的楼花。在这期间，你没有保证那时是否能拿到贷款。你不知道那时候利率是多少。 除非你有庞大的承受风险能力，否则你不该现在进入楼花市场"
http://www.globaltvbc.com/video/cond...018376#stories

October YoY Sales Stats by region

温西: Van West
　　成交量: -13% 
　　成交/上市比: 46% vs 41%
　　指标价: -7.7% (-6.5%，-3.7%，0%) (过去几个月与去年的同比数据)
　　中位价: -1.7% 

列治文: Richmond
　　成交量: -25% 
　　成交/上市比: 38% vs 49%
　　HPI 指标价: -4.0% (-4.2%,-3.7%,-3.9%)
　　Median 中位价: +3.8% 

本拿比: Burnaby
　　成交量: -40%
　　成交/上市比: 41% vs 66%
　　HPI指标价: +2.4% (+4.2%,+5.2%,+3.9%)
　　Median 中位价: -5.5% 

温东: Van East
　　成交量: -26% 
　　成交/上市比: 43% vs 63%
　　HPI 指标价: +1.9% (+3.2%,+4.8%,+5.5%)
　　Median 中位价: -1.5% 

高贵林: Coquitlam
　　成交量: -20% 
　　成交/上市比: 49% vs 51%
　　HPI 指标价: +2.8% (+3.6%,+3.7%,+4.3%)
　　Median 中位价: -2.7%

October REBGV Stats

2012-10 大温房市官方数据 Oct REBGV Stats (PDF)

(for historical stats, click here)

BC, 大温 就业机会与失业率10月份大受打击

Vancouver Sun: BC 10月份为全国流失最多工作的省份。
B.C. suffered the biggest setback in job loss, while little changed in other provinces in October, according to Statistics Canada

www.vancouversun.com/b...story.html

大温失业率:
Apr 2012: 6.2% (7.3% Canada)
May 2012: 6.4% (7.3% Canada)
Jun 2012: 6.4% (7.2% Canada)
Jul 2012: 6.8% (7.3% Canada)
Aug 2012: 6.8% (7.3% Canada)
Sep 2012: 7.0% (7.4% Canada)
Oct 2012: 7.2% (7.4% Canada) 

半年来加拿大失业率没啥变化
大温失业率升了整整1%

http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/unemployment-stats/


加拿大10月虽增加了1800个工作，但主要为公营企业/政府机构。 私人企业丢了超过 20,000个工作
Employment numbers hide the fact Canada is bleeding private sector jobs

 Nov 2, 2012

Canada may have added 1,800 jobs in October, but that number hides the fact that almost all the gains came from government and that the private sector lost more than 20,000 jobs.

The 1,800 jobs added was already a disappointment compared with the 10,000 economists had forecast. According to Statistics Canada, that left the unemployment rate unchanged at 7.4%.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/11/02/employment-numbers-hide-the-fact-canada-is-bleeding-private-sector-jobs/

华尔街日报,渥太华日报,财经邮报:多伦多公寓成交大跌。建商延迟楼盘。现在买家期望大于经验

华尔街日报: 多伦多公寓成交量Q3 比 Q2 大跌30%，大多公寓房市继续冷却。
More Signs of Cooling in Toronto’s Red-Hot Condo Market
November 1, 2012
New condominium apartment sales in Toronto fell 30% in the third quarter from the second quarter, Urbanation Inc. said Thursday, another sign the condo market in Canada’s biggest city has topped out in the wake of the Canadian government’s efforts to guard against as U.S.-style, real-estate meltdown.

But at the same time developers are getting the message and slowing construction activity to meet the reduced demand, the Toronto-based condo market research company found.

http://blogs.wsj.com/canadarealtime/...-condo-market/

渥太华日报: 多伦多公寓成交量急跌，价位已受影响。建商开始延迟推出新楼盘。
Toronto condo projects on hold as sales plunge
NOVEMBER 1, 2012
“With slowing sales and a record level of unsold inventory in the market in the second quarter, condominium developers reacted quickly by delaying their project launches, especially in the ‘416’ area,” says Ben Myers, executive vice-president of Urbanation, in a release. “Just five projects launched in Toronto in Q3-2012, as developers choose to review their pricing assumptions and unit mix.”

Prices are also being impacted.
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/busines...079/story.html

财经邮报: 多伦多公寓市场是由过度宽松的借贷政策及买家'不懂算数'造成的
Financial Post: Condo market driven by easy credit and faulty math
Nov 1, 2012
"We believe that buyers in the current condo market exude hope over experience"
我们认为现在大多公寓市场的买家经验太少，期望太高。

"despite claims of a buoyant rental market investors are ending up with "an astonishingly low return on invested capital.""
即使有人声称租房市场还是旺盛，但是地产投资者最后拿到的回报还是"令人吃惊地低"
http://business.financialpost.com/20...-math-analyst/

October Greater Vancouver Sales Stats

10月底 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量 Sales: 1950 vs 2317 ( 下降16%)
新上市 Lists:  4370 vs 4374 (持平)
比例 Ratio: 44.6% vs 53.0% (差8.4%)
总房源 Inventory: ~17500 vs 15377 (上升14%)
滞销量 MOI: 9.0月 (预计) vs 6.6月 (同比)

大温地区滞销量继续维持于明显的买方市场 (滞销>7个月)。 价格继续面临庞大下降压力。
虽环比看来滞销量及成交量有改善,但其实符合历年来的季节性波动 (10月成交量高过9月)。
同时我们必须考虑今年9月只有19个工作日,而10月则有22个 (+16%)。 
再来,目前成交的单位很多是由卖方降价而换来的。
只是GF认为,觉得现在占到便宜的买方,过没半年就会发现,还是买高了。

2012年房市渐入尾声,历年来11月成交量大致与10月相当。
2013年1月我们看来将见到比2012年1月再高10%-15%的总房源
造成2013年的滞销程度及房价下跌速率比今年更加恶化。

大温地区 10月 成交量历史
2002 = 2866
2003 = 3765
2004 = 2734
2005 = 3099
2006 = 2722
2007 = 3028
2008 = 1364
2009 = 3704
2010 = 2337
2011 = 2317
2012 ~ 1950 (十多年来第二低)

My predictions of Greater Vancouver SFH prices 2013-2014

GF预测大温独立屋 2013年底前跌回2010
2014年中跌回2007
2014年底跌回2006
5年之内不会见底。
列治文领跌

GF predicts Greater Vancouver SFH HPI and/or average price will:
1. drop to 2010 levels by end of 2013
2. drop to 2007 levels by mid 2014
3. drop to 2006 levels by end of 2014
4. Richmond will continue to lead the decline
5. no bottom within next 5 years (ie 2017)