CBC："大温房价较去年下跌 9.8%"

看来欧洲金融风暴现在展开更新(更坏)阶段。
中国经济亦继续表现不如理想。

而主流媒体继续增加报导大温房市的跌幅与未来风险

Canadian home prices flatten in April

May 15, 2012 4:17 PM ET 

 

Prices in the Greater Vancouver area came in 9.8 per cent below the level of a year ago, a fourth contraction in home prices in five months and the largest drop the region has seen since the recession, TD Bank economist Diana Petramala noted.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/05/15/crea-home-sales-april.html

今年下半，大温房市的变化将可以更明显地在价格上呈现

5月1-11日 销售记录

5月11日大温地区销售记录
新上市: 262 
成交量: 81

_________________________
5月1-11日 销售记录 (2012 vs 2011)
新上市: 3036 vs 2738 (+10.9%)
成交量: 1179 vs 1481 (-20.4%)

Vancouver Sun: 为何现在是卖房兑现的好时机？

Hot Canadian home prices moving some homeowners to sell -- for profit
MAY 10, 2012 1:01 PM

Why might it be a good time to sell?

At about $370,000 average nationally - and just under $800,000 in Vancouver - home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.

"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.

"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.

The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate - albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.

While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.

With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.

And Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.

In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation - and tax free if it's the principal home.

Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.

That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.

"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.

"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."

The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.

"我们现在正在面对一完全不理智的对房市的过度依赖。 很多人认为房市是某种奇幻的， 永远只涨不跌的投资项目。  但是，当调整期/泡沫破灭到来，许多人过满的信心将转为恐惧。。。"

"我们现在明显处于大温房市最高点，而房市的未来值得担忧 。 许多分析师已预测跌幅将至少10-25% (某些过热地区将跌更多)。  现在可以说是卖房兑现的最佳时机。 "

(GF认为，最佳时机其实是去年6月以前)

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/2035/Canadian+home+prices+moving+some+homeowners+sell+profit/6600465/story.html

大傻在北美中文网的专栏开张!

 (北美中文网报道) 地产走势如何，向来是置业者、投资者关注的重点。大温地产局、菲沙河谷地产局均会发布每月地产相关数据，不过，由于地产局统计数据分类庞杂，且相关数据新闻多侧重总体表现，因此对于具体区域的具体房型市场表现，读者不一定十分了解。北美中文网网友“GreatFool” 长期关注大温及加国地产数据，并结合人口变动、经济发展、移民政策等进行跟踪分析，颇受网友关注。本网特辑录“大傻地产观察”内容，一家之言，供读者参考。
            【大傻地产观察】 ：大温地区4月表现最差的区域 (独立屋)

      By 北美中文网网友“GreatFool”


       1、4月 Van West 独立屋 
       成交量 = 130
       较去年 = 214 大跌 39%
       较上月 = 152 下跌 14%

       新上市 = 395
       较去年 = 358 上升 10%
       较上月 = 336 上升 18%

       2、4月 West Van 独立屋 
       成交量 = 83
       较去年 = 141 大跌 41%
       较上月 = 78 上升 6%

       新上市 = 184
       较去年 = 200 下跌 8%
       较上月 = 158 上升 16%

       3、4月 Burnaby 独立屋 
       成交量 = 94
       较去年 = 150 大跌 37%
       较上月 = 95 下跌 1%

       新上市 = 246
       较去年 = 193 上升 27%
       较上月 = 210 上升 17%

       4、4月 Coquitlam 独立屋
       成交量 = 119
       较去年 = 143 下跌 17%
       较上月 = 154 下跌 23%

       新上市 = 210
       较去年 = 214 下跌 2%
       较上月 = 225 下跌 7%

       5、4月 Van East 独立屋 
       成交量 = 135
       较去年 = 171 下跌 21%
       较上月 = 155 下跌 13%

       新上市 = 270
       较去年 = 271 下跌 0%
       较上月 = 291 下跌 7%

       6、4月 Richmond 独立屋 
       成交量 = 114
       较去年 = 143 下跌 20%
       较上月 = 104 上升 10%

       新上市 = 350
       较去年 = 408 下跌 14%
       较上月 = 326 上升 7%

http://www.westca.com/News/article/sid=229731/lang=schinese.html

大温房市继续滞销

5月数据目前看来比3，4月还糟。

新上市量看来将创10年新高
成交量看来将创10年新低

而最近一个半月银行贷款单位开始较严格执行收入证明。
若未有足够的收入，只有大量的首付是不够的。
这新政策将继续明显地压抑贷款量，间接地影响房价。

Fraser Valley 4月 独立屋 数据 2012 vs 2011

中位数价 April ’11: $558K
中位数价 April ’12: $537K (-3.7%)

均价 April ’11: $641K
均价 April ’12: $589K (-8.1%!)

HPI 指标价 April ’11: $547K
HPI 指标价 April ’12: $576K (+5.3%?)


同比 中位价跌 3.7%，均价跌8.1%，但地产局自定的指标价上升5.3% ???


http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20201204.pdf

欧洲传染源...

法国，希腊周末大选后，人民反对Austerity (预算紧缩政策) 的声音被清楚地听见了。

大傻过去半年来不断呼吁，欧洲经济风暴尚未结束 (其实好戏还没上场)。  希腊，意大利，西班牙，葡萄牙，甚至法国， 德国的经济状况，将对欧盟的未来造成进一步的威胁。

传染源渐渐扩散...