大傻3天前预测了固定房贷利率走向， 今日著名房贷网站做出相同预测

大傻对于固定房贷利息将在近期内提前上升的预测 (1.超低固定利率可能无法持久, 2,
5 year bond rate 继续上升), 过了几天后著名加拿大房贷网站 Canadian Mortgage Trends 提出同样预测。

"超低固定房贷将可能提前结束"

March 17, 2012

Yield Spike Puts Mortgage Specials at Risk

The cost of funding fixed-rate mortgages surged this week as bond yields escalated.

The 5-year yield is up over 30 basis points in 10 days, and 45 bps since the end of January.

That means lenders could start pulling some fixed-rate specials and/or increasing rates in general, as early as next week.

Some have already lifted rates in the last 48 hours and we hear at least one major bank will be cancelling its 2.99% 4-year offer on Tuesday.

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/03/yield-spike-puts-mortgage-specials-at-risk.html#more

3月1-16日大温地区销售数据

2012 vs 2011
成交 1535 vs 2161 (下跌29%)
新上市 3192 vs 3861 (下跌17%)
比例 48% vs 56% (差8%)


过去10年3月份销售数据:

March
            成交    l新上市    比例
2002    3392    5168    65.6%
2003    3304    4272    77.3%
2004    4371    5709    76.6%
2005    3938    5083    77.5%
2006    4033    5767    69.9%
2007    3582    5456    65.7%
2008    2997    5674    52.8%
2009    2265    4385    51.7%
2010    3137    7004    44.8%
2011    4080    6797    60.0%
2012   2940   5430    54%   <-预测

5 year bond rate 继续上升

5 year bond rate 继续上升, 极低固定利率可能提前上涨。 哪个银行会先行动呢?

(见大傻3月14日帖 超低固定利率可能无法持久)

固定利率是由5 year bond rate 决定的。
虽然1月下旬5 year bond rate 下降 (造成BMO率先开始2.99%固定利率), 但是看来现在5 year bond rate 已经开始悄悄回升。
若继续下去,银行现在的2.99%固定利率将在短期内回升。
大傻评论 ->若利率回升，加上政府若在3月底发表新一轮缩紧房贷政策，将造成购房者资金减少，进而造成房市在晚春/夏季进一步下跌。

聪明(或是有时间等)的人，会不顾当下低利率的诱惑，继续储存首付(或退休金).  等到房贷难借时，就是市场上与你竞争的买房者减少时，也就是房价进一步下跌的时候。 

www.bloomberg.com/quot...IND/chart/

Globe & Mail: 想买房投资？ 该找别的地方了。

最近房市负面新闻多到大傻每天随便一开Google News 财经版就多了几条关于警告房市泡沫破灭的新闻。

加拿大权威性报纸今日再次报导，
若想要投资，不要挑选房市。
现在所有供给，需求等因素全强烈指向泡沫破灭。

[Real estate as an investment? Look elsewhere]
G&M: Mar. 16, 2012 6:04PM

“…When I pull together the economic fundamentals, valuation and sentiment, real estate, as an investment, doesn’t look very attractive. The distribution of potential outcomes looks asymmetrical to me – limited upside and plenty of possible downside. But what really screams out at me is how many important factors are at extremes … bad extremes. One or two off-trend numbers can be explained away, but too many are jumping off the charts – price increases, mortgage rates, loan growth, consumer debt and home ownership levels.

To invest in an asset class that is illiquid, has high holding and transaction costs and involves large amounts of leverage, I want a significant margin of safety. Right now, there are more warning signs than guardrails.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/the-buy-side/real-estate-as-an-investment-look-elsewhere/article2372118/

TD Bank: 建议政府制定贷款新政; 大温地区房价高估10-15%

 TD Bank 发表报告， 房市泡沫将为加拿大经济带来严重风险

建议政府制定贷款新政， 以控制房价

大温地区房价目前被高估至少10-15% .

大傻认为，TD低估了可能跌幅.

但他们身为银行，借贷者， 对于房市过于乐观是可以理解的  ; )

[Housing bubble a danger to economy, TD says]
Bank warns household debt also a hazard
Mar 16, 2012 12:24 PM
Overvalued housing markets in several Canadian cities and high household debt poses a “clear and present danger” to Canada’s economy, TD Bank warned in a report Friday.
The report flags Vancouver as the market with the greatest risk of a housing price correction, because of an influx of foreign buyers, likely in the order of 10 to 15 per cent.

The study by the bank’s chief economist, Craig Alexander, proposes the government introduce measures to keep personal debt levels from rising further.

The answer is not, Alexander says, for banks to agree to lend less.
“To do so would be collusion,” he said, “and it is illegal.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/story/2012/03/16/td-overvaluation-debt.html

TD Bank 建议政府及早打房

TD Bank 将在明日(3月16日)发表一份报告，建议联邦政府尽快制定下一轮房贷缩紧政策， 包括以下4点建议
1. 缩短最长偿还期至25年
2. 增加最低首付至7%
3. 要求所有申请房贷者必须证明在利息升至5.5%的情况下还能还债。
4. 要求所有HELOC申请者能证明能在20年内还完债务 - 进而减少申请者能借出的HELOC房屋净资产抵押贷款。 

* TD会建议以上4点建议不同时，或太接近实施。

完全是大傻意料中的打房项目 - 见2月底大傻作的预测:
http://greaterfoolvancouver.blogspot.com/2012/02/heloc.html
http://forum.iask.ca/showthread.php?p=7830350#post7830350

GF认为，3月份财长Flaherty 将实施至少一项打房政策。
GF在此，以可能性大小排名，列出最可能实施的政策:


可能性最大
1. 再次缩短最长偿还期，从30年降至25年
2. 缩紧自雇/Stated Income 者的房贷+/-HELOC 借款额度
3. 再次减少Re-finance 时可借的数量，从85%降至80% （借此控制HELOC贷款量）
4. 要求银行提高自身的资本要求，提高流动资金，及减低杠杆比率 (这可能部分已经暗中实施)
5. 升高最低首付，从5% 增至7.5% 或 10%
6. 调高CMHC房贷保险的保费
7. 设置CMHC政府担保房贷的上限，譬如高过$800k 的房屋，政府不提供CMHC保险 (转由银行自行承担)
8. 强迫银行承担一部分贷款风险 (譬如令银行承担5%的房贷损失，而CMHC承担95% ) 
可能性最小 

引用:

Ottawa urged to take concrete steps to limit growing consumer debt 3/15/2012 Mr. Alexander, chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, says the government, which has tightened mortgage rules three times since 2008, should step into the housing market again and gradually roll out a series of steps to ensure the risk doesn’t get worse. “We want to ensure that the imbalance we have doesn’t get any bigger, so the economy over the medium term can weather the inevitable future adjustment in interest rates,” Mr. Alexander said in an interview. “If we incrementally lean against credit growth while we have low rates, it will be a better outcome for the economy.” In a report he will release Friday, Mr. Alexander recommends four possible measures: 1. the maximum amortization period for government-insured mortgages should be cut to 25 years 2. anyone applying for a mortgage should be required to show they could still afford it if the rate rose to 5.5 per cent 3. lenders should assess the ability of anyone applying for a home-equity line of credit to pay it off within 20 years. 4. minimum down payment for a government-insured mortgage should be raised to 7 per cent from the current 5 per cent, Mr. Alexander said. However, he is careful to note that the government should not attempt to implement all of the changes at once, or even closely spaced, for fear of causing the very economic damage that policy makers are trying to prevent. http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/...le2369949.html

又一个在主流媒体发表的泡沫警告

皇后大学经济学教授3月15日在Globe & Mail 发表，加拿大人应该开始进入"危机应对模式"， 减少负债。  他也强烈建议联邦政府尽快发表缩紧房贷政策，包括减少最长偿还期至25年，及增加最低首付至10%。

[Strong medicine urged for a fevered real estate market]
3/15/2012
“Canadians ought to put themselves in risk management mode,” urges Queen’s University finance professor Louis Gagnon.

The professor is adding his voice to the chorus urging the federal government to make it tougher for marginal buyers to get into the Canadian housing market.

At the same time, people across the country should be lightening their heavy debt loads to avoid a shock when interest rates rise.

Prof. Gagnon is calling on the government to tighten the rules further in order to relieve the upward pressure on real estate prices and prevent a bubble. Which is not to say we’re not already in a bubble

Prof. Gagnon would like to see the maximum mortgage amortization period knocked back to 25 years from the current 30. The minimum down payment, he suggests, should be 10 per cent instead of five.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/buying-and-selling/strong-medicine-urged-for-a-fevered-real-estate-market/article2370040/