Friday 1 November 2013

October 2013 Stats Summary (Estimated) & Historical Comparison

(Updated with more accurate Stats Nov 1)
Estimated October 2013 Stats:
2013 vs 2012
Sales 2635 vs 1931(+36%)
Lists 4277 vs 4323 (-1%)
Ratio 62% vs 46%
Est Month end Inventory: 15340 vs 17370(-11.7%)
MOI:5.8 vs 9.0 (Oct/12) vs 6.5 (Sept/13)


Historical Oct Sales: (2003-2012 10Y Avg=2700)
2002: 2866
2003: 3765
2004: 2734
2005: 3099
2006: 2722
2007: 3028
2008: 1364
2009: 3704
2010: 2337
2011: 2317
2012: 1931
2013~2635 (-2.4% vs 10 year average)

Oct vs Sept (same year) Sales: (2003-2012 10Y Avg = +4.4%)
2003: +12%
2004: -3.9%
2005: -7.3%
2006: +8.1%
2007: +9.1%
2008: -14%
2009: +4.1%
2010: +5.3%
2011: +3.2%
2012: +27%
2013: +6%

2013 vs 2012 YoY Monthly Sales:
May: +1%
Jun: +12% (Fixed rates started rising, last chance to get 5Y 2.79% preapproval)
Jul: +40% (Note: CMHC new rules implemented Jul 9, 2012)
Aug: +52%
Sep: +64%
Oct: +36% (declining YoY gain)(Running out of low-rate-holds?)

2013 Monthly Sales vs 10Y Same-Month Avg Sales
Jan: -18.7%
Feb: -30.9%
Mar: -30.2%
Apr: -20.9%
May: -19.4%
Jun: -22%
Jul: +0.1%
Aug: -4.6%
Sep: -1%
Oct: -2.4% (120 day preapproval is starting to expire now?)

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