Wednesday, 3 July 2013

2013 Mid-year summary

Mid-year Stats (June 2013 vs Dec 2012)
Category 1: Aggregate, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver Composite MLS-HPI (+1.9%)(vs +2.7% Jun/12 vs Dec/11)
-Greater Vancouver SFD MLS-HPI (+1.7%)(vs +3.4%)
-Greater Vancouver Apartment MLS-HPI (+2.2%)(vs +2.2%)

Category 2: Average, percent change from December 2012
-Greater Vancouver detached average (+3.5%)
-Greater Vancouver attached average (+2.2%)
-Greater Vancouver apartments average (+17.2%)

Category 3: Regional SFD MLS-HPI, percent change from December 2012
- Burnaby S SFD +2.4% (vs +7.1% Jun/12 vs Dec/11)
- Coquitlam SFD +0.6% (vs +6.1%)
- North Van SFD +4.4% (vs +3.6%)
- New West SFD +3.7% (vs +4.6%)
- West Van SFD +2.7% (vs +7.8%)
- Van East SFD +2.0% (vs +4.5%)
- Van West SFD +3.3% (vs +3.9%)
- Richmond SFD +0.6% (vs -0.5%)

2013 Vancouver RE still recorded Mid-year price gain (vs year-start), though the % gain was slower than last year (and most years previously) in most areas.

Greater Vancouver Sales are higher than last year, however the sales pick-up varied greatly with region. The record-low Fixed mtg rates this Spring was likely the main contributing factor – for the people who can still qualify for mortgages.

In May/June, for SFH we see the Core (HAM/expensive areas) sales increasing at +30% to +50% YoY, while outlying areas (eg Coquitlam, Burnaby, New West, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows) sales were flat, or even lower than last year.

If Fixed rates continue to creep higher, we can expect to see people with mortgage pre-approvals jumping into the market before it expires (usually 60 day rate-hold). So we might continue to see a busier July than last year. However, if rates stay high, I expect to see a worse 2nd half than 2012-H2..

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