Saturday, 16 November 2013

Scotia, RBC echo view of pulled-forward demand due to expiring rate-holds

- seems like the big banks' views are in line with my predictions back in June

Scotiabank Nov 15 Market Flash report
“On a very preliminary basis, this would feed into our view that sales rose over the spring and summer at the expense of future months as people exercised options to purchase within 90-120 day mortgage rate commitments on fears of losing the juicy rate commitments back in the spring. I maintain the view that the spring and summer market was a temporary interruption along a correcting sales path”

RBC Monthly Housing Market Update
Nov 15
“The resale decline in October was not entirely a surprise because we suspected that much of the strength in recent months reflected the unwinding of earlier restraint associated with the tightening of mortgage insurance rules last year and a rush by some homebuyers to lock-in lower mortgage rates this summer. Developments in October were consistent with that view”

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