Thursday, 31 October 2013

A few points re: when will the expiring rate-holds show up on RE Board's Sales stats

- The sales strength since summer was predicted back in June by some, so the recent sales strength supports the prediction.
- Fixed rates moved up from early/mid June until August. With rate-hold being 60-120 days, potential buyers were allowed up to 4 months since July/August to take the leap.
- The source of my daily stats come from REBGV server. However, it's known that it takes at least 2 weeks (and possibly over one month) for a “sale” to be entered into the REBGV system.
- Therefore, REBGV sales stats may have a lag of 2 to 4+ weeks vs actual “real-time” events. I still think a significant slow-down in sales will occur once most of the pre-approved mortgages expire. When this weakness shows up on REBGV sales stats is up for speculation (but should be soon)
- Even BoC and several major banks’ economists have in the last 1-3 months warned about the summer/fall RE rebound being “temporary”.
- But of course certain banks like BMO were quick to cheer “crash averted”
- As an aside, it’s worth noting that some smaller/cheap mortgage lenders have been refusing to lend toward condo purchases (wonder why ;) )

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