SingTao Daily Newspaper published this piece today:
"Greater Vancouver Sales Down 30%, but Coquitlam, North Van, and Port Moody Bucks Trend to Show Price Increases"
HAHAHA, well done SingTao!
Let us dig deeper:
Basically, these areas all recorded price drops vs 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months ago.
Even though they're hanging on to Year-over-year positive HPI territory, after a couple more months they too will become negative.
SingTao Newspaper was deliberately/unintentionally misleading when it said those areas "Beat the trend".
Nov 2012 Single-Family House HPI:
Coquitlam:
MoM: -0.4%
6 Mo: -1.9%
YoY: +2.6% (+2.8%,+3.6%,+3.7%,+4.3%) (declining YoY % gain over past months)
North Van:
MoM: -1.5%
6 Mo: -5.4%
YoY: +0.3% (+2.2%,+5.2%,+5.2%)
Port Moody
MoM: -2.3%
6 Mo: -1.0%
YoY: +4.7% (+6.9%,+5.3%,+2.9%)
*The same conclusion holds true for Composite (SFH+Condo+Attached) HPI.
GF 来澄清一下:
基本上这些地区比半年前,比三个月前,及比上个月 皆全面下跌。
而比去年同月,虽还是维持在 同比"上升", 但看来再过几个月,便将沦陷至同比下跌的地步。
而星岛日报说这些地区 “逆市上升”, 是错误的理解, 不管是故意的还是不小心的。
Wednesday, 5 December 2012
Tuesday, 4 December 2012
Battle of Vancouver: CONDO - Nov 2012
Battle of Vancouver: CONDO
Nov 2012:
- Bear Forces claimed strategic Vancouver West and Burnaby East
- Bear Forces also gained Langley, but lost Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows to Bulls.
- Richmond became unclaimed
* Areas with Positive Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bulls.
* Areas with Negative Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bears.
* Each 1% = One Tank.
* Areas with Negative Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bears.
* Each 1% = One Tank.
Last month:
Battle of Vancouver: SFH - Nov 2012
Battle of Vancouver: SFH
Nov 2012:
- As predicted in October, Bear Forces successfully invaded New Westminster.
- Bear Forces also liberated West Vancouver, South Surrey & White Rock.
- The following Bull Territories are facing imminent defeat: Van East, Burnaby East, North Van, North Delta.
* Areas with Positive Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bulls.
* Areas with Negative Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bears.
* Each 1% = One Tank.
Last month:
Nov 2012 vs 2011 SFH Stats
Vancouver West:
Sales: -36%Ratio: 48% vs 74%
HPI YoY: -8.4% (-7.7%,-6.5%,-3.7%,0%) worsened YoY trend in past months
Burnaby:
Sales: -42%
Ratio: 49% vs 82%
HPI YoY: +1.5% (+2.4%,+4.2%,+5.2%)
Richmond:
Sales: -25%
Ratio: 55% vs 65%
HPI YoY: -4.2% (-4.0%,-4.2%,-3.7%)
Coquitlam:
Sales: -33%
Ratio: 64% vs 72%
HPI YoY: +2.6% (+2.8%,+3.6%,+3.7%,+4.3%)
Vancouver East:
Sales: -19%
Ratio: 82% vs 74%
HPI YoY: +0.5% (+1.9%,+3.2%,+4.8%,+5.5%)
Monday, 3 December 2012
GF: A few points at the start of December
- Dec 2011 had 21 business days, with Dec 24-26 landing on Sat-Sun-Mon.
- Total Inventory (TI) on first day of Dec 2011: 14182
- Total Inventory (TI) on first day of Dec 2012: 15974 (+13%)
(REBGV live stats thanks to realtor Paul Boenisch)
- My guess is Dec 2012 sales -30% YoY, -30% MoM (Nov 2012 sales = Dec 2011 sales)
Now let's assume 2013 sales run at -15% YoY, and TI stays at +13% YoY
Projected Months of Inventory in 2013:
- Dec 2012 has 19 business days, with Dec 24-26 falling on Mon-Tues-Wed.
- Total Inventory (TI) on first day of Dec 2011: 14182
- Total Inventory (TI) on first day of Dec 2012: 15974 (+13%)
(REBGV live stats thanks to realtor Paul Boenisch)
- My guess is Dec 2012 sales -30% YoY, -30% MoM (Nov 2012 sales = Dec 2011 sales)
2013 January is projected to have
+13% TI vs Jan 2012,
+35% vs Jan 2011,
+39% vs Jan 2010,
+1.5% vs Jan 2009 (!),
~+40% vs Jan 2008.
Now let's assume 2013 sales run at -15% YoY, and TI stays at +13% YoY
Projected Months of Inventory in 2013:
MOI 2013 2012 2011 Jan 10.6 8.0 5.7 Feb 7.3 5.5 3.9 Mar 7.0 5.3 3.2 Apr 7.9 5.9 4.4 May 8.3 6.3 4.3 Jun 10.4 7.8 4.6
If this projection is correct, then 2013 will have the MOI trough at 7.0 in March – and that’s still in “Buyer’s Market”!
**Rule of thumb:
Seller's Market = MOI <5
Balanced Market = MOI 5-7
Buyer's Market = MOI >7
**Rule of thumb:
Seller's Market = MOI <5
Balanced Market = MOI 5-7
Buyer's Market = MOI >7
This is my "moderately conservative" projection. I'm leaning toward a -20% or worse YoY sales figures in 2013.
Conclusion: 2013 will be a fun year.
Flaherty "has no regrets" cooling the housing market
Dec 3, 2012
“Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is not worried about a housing collapse, saying he is happy he has helped cool the market with the latest round of stricter mortgage rules.
The finance minister says he is also encouraged Canadians are paying down their mortgages and credit cards, and taking on less debt…
... That was caused in part because Flaherty made mortgage payments more expensive in July by dropping the maximum amortization period to 25 years, but the minister says he has no regrets.
A soft landing in housing is better than a boom followed by a bust, he says.”
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