4月官方数据- 完整版

2012-4 大温房市官方数据 Apr REBGV Stats (PDF)

(过去10年数据按此)

大温 独立屋 均价连两个月下滑，比去年跌8%

2012-4月: $1,106,683 (下跌近10万，或 -8%)
2011-4月: $1,204,587

4月底大温地区销售数据

2012 vs 2011 四月
成交 2806 vs 3225 (下降13%)
新上市 5953 vs 5847 (增加2%)
比例 47% vs 55% (差8%)

今年4月总成交量为: 2806
环比 2012-3月: 2874
= 下跌 2%

同比 2011-4月: 3225
= 下跌 13%

成交量为十年来4月份最低。 同时也比3月份低。 若5月持续低迷(传统春季旺季高峰为4-5月), 则大温房市将确定加速步入下跌通道

年份 成交 新上市 比例

2001	2253	3556	63.4%
2002	3785	5215	72.6%
2003	3095	4139	74.8%
2004	4106	5665	72.5%
2005	4043	5731	70.5%
2006	3345	4452	75.1%
2007	3490	5724	61.0%
2008	3218	7010	45.9%
2009	2963	4649	63.7%
2010	3512	7648	45.9%
2011	3225	5847	55.2%
2012	2806	5953	47.1% (预测)

加拿大各大银行在08年金融危机受惠政府 (纳税人) $114B 补助

正如GF以前谈过，加拿大的银行并不如总理Harper 这几年来等对外宣称的如此"安全，谨慎，无须政府补助"
 (见 http://www.westca.com/Forums/viewtopic/p=3394516/lang=schinese.html#3394516)


有些银行 (CIBC, BMO, Scotia) 受到的纳税人资助甚至超过他们当时的总市值 Market Cap.


Quantifying The Big Five Canadian Banks' $114 Billion Bailoutt

The official story of the 2008 financial crisis goes like this: American and international banks got caught placing bad bets on U.S. mortgages and had to be bailed out. But not in Canada. Through the financial crisis, Canadian banks were touted by the federal government and the banks themselves as being much more stable than other countries’ big banks. Canadian banks, we were assured, needed no such bailout.

However, in contrast to the official story Canada’s banks received $114 billion in cash and loan support between September 2008 and August 2010. They were double-dipping in not only two but three separate support programs, one of them American. They continued receiving this support for a protracted period while at the same time reaping considerable profits and providing raises to their CEOs, who were already among Canada’s highest paid. In fact, several banks drew government support whose value exceeded the bank’s actual value. Canadian banks were in hot water during the crisis and the Canadian government has remained resolutely secretive about the details.

It should be noted that the “Extraordinary Financing Framework” was prepared to spend up to $200 billion to aid the banks and other industries. In other words, while the sums reported in this report are enormous, there were even more funds to be disbursed if the banks needed them.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/quantifying-big-five-canadian-banks-114-billion-bailout









http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/our-banks-got-billions-in-crisis-report-says-149618755.html

BUY NOW OR WAIT?

今天这一帖，我们来讨论 GF 心目中的第一个(长期自住)的独立房。

现在房价 = $1,000,000
现有首付 = $250,000 (= 25% down payment)
则 Mortgage = $750,000

若偿还期 25年，固定利率3.49%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $3741
若偿还期 20年，固定利率3.49%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $4336
若偿还期 15年，固定利率3.49%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $5349


若两年后才买房，而房价那时跌了15%，但利息上升了1%，而首付不变:
现在房价 = $850,000
现有首付 = $250,000 (= 29.4% down payment)
则 Mortgage = $600,000

若偿还期 25年，固定利率4.49%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $3318，比现在买房少付$423/月
若偿还期 20年，固定利率4.49%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $3779，比现在买房少付$557/月
若偿还期 15年，固定利率4.49%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $4574，比现在买房少付$775/月


若两年后才买房，而房价那时跌了15%，但利息上升了1.5%，而首付不变:
现在房价 = $850,000
现有首付 = $250,000 (= 29.4% down payment)
则 Mortgage = $600,000

若偿还期 25年，固定利率4.99%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $3486，比现在买房少付$255/月
若偿还期 20年，固定利率4.99%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $3940，比现在买房少付$396/月
若偿还期 15年，固定利率4.99%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $4726，比现在买房少付$623/月


若两年后才买房，而房价那时跌了15%，但利息上升了1%，而首付增加了$50k (存了两年的剩余收入):
现在房价 = $850,000
现有首付 = $300,000 (= 35.3% down payment)
则 Mortgage = $550,000

若偿还期 25年，固定利率4.49%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $3041，比现在买房少付$700/月
若偿还期 20年，固定利率4.49%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $3464，比现在买房少付$872/月
若偿还期 15年，固定利率4.49%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $4193，比现在买房少付$1156/月


若两年后才买房，而房价那时跌了15%，但利息上升了1.5%，而首付增加了$50k (存了两年的剩余收入):
现在房价 = $850,000
现有首付 = $300,000 (= 35.3% down payment)
则 Mortgage = $550,000

若偿还期 25年，固定利率4.99%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $3196，比现在买房少付$545/月
若偿还期 20年，固定利率4.99%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $3611，比现在买房少付$725/月
若偿还期 15年，固定利率4.99%， 则每月 Mortgage  = $4332，比现在买房少付$1017/月


结论:  
若两年后房价(保守估计)下跌15%, 但利率上涨... (贷款20年)
1. 利率上涨1.0% →  月付减少 $557/月 (-13%)
2. 利率上涨1.5% →  月付减少 $396/月 (-9%)

但是，两年后GF多存了$50,000 作为首付 (保守估计)
1. 利率上涨1.0% →  月付减少 $872/月 (-20%)
2. 利率上涨1.5% →  月付减少 $725/月 (-17%)

4月1-27日大温地区销售数据

2012 vs 2011 四月同期 成交 2682 vs 3120 (下降14%) 新上市 5637 vs 5629 (持平) 比例 47.6% vs 55.5% (差8%) 预计今年4月底总成交量为: 2810 比 2012-3月: 2874 = 下跌 ~2% 比 2011-4月: 3225 = 下跌 ~13% 成交量为十年来4月份最低 年份 成交 新上市 比例 2001 2253 3556 63.4% 2002 3785 5215 72.6% 2003 3095 4139 74.8% 2004 4106 5665 72.5% 2005 4043 5731 70.5% 2006 3345 4452 75.1% 2007 3490 5724 61.0% 2008 3218 7010 45.9% 2009 2963 4649 63.7% 2010 3512 7648 45.9% 2011 3225 5847 55.2% 2012 2810 5850 48.0% (预测)

财长考虑废除CMHC 房贷保险

时间不明，但若执行，则银行及贷款机构将失去政府(及纳税人) 100%的担保， 而把风险转移到银行/贷款机构上。 房贷要更难拿了，而加拿大10年来兴旺的房地产业，将面临更重大的打击。

CMHC could be pulled out of mortgage insurance business, Flaherty says

Apr 27, 2012 – 6:33 PM ET

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty would consider taking Canada Mortgage Housing Corp.out of the mortgage default insurance business he told the National Post’s editorial board.
“Over time, I don’t think it’s essential that a government financial institution provide mortgage insurance in Canada. I think what’s key is that mortgage insurance is available at a reasonable cost in Canada. I think there is a role to regulate but whether we, the Canadian people, have to be the owners and shareholders of a financial institution to do this is a question. I don’t think it’s essential in the long run.”
He offered no timetable on when the government could get out of mortgage default insurance business, just offering it up as a possibility. “We have a list of Crowns, Crown agencies that are being reviewed,” said Mr. Flaherty.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/27/cmhc-could-be-pulled-out-of-mortgage-insurance-business-flaherty-says/