Mar 1-8 Sales Stats

2013 vs 2012
Sales: 650 vs 790 (-18%)
New Lists: 1583 vs 1697 (-7%)
Ratio: 41% vs 47%

Est Month-end Sales: 2150 vs 2874 (-25%)
Est Month-end Lists: 4950 vs 5843 (-15%)
Est Month-end Inventory: 15840 vs 15236(+4%)
MOI:7.2-7.6 (Est) vs 5.3 (Mar/12)

Greater Vancouver is expected to reach 7.4 months of inventory by end of March, remaining in "Buyer's Market" territory.
March usually has the lowest MOI in a year.
Below are historical March MOI's:

2006: 2.4 个月
2007: 3.1 个月
2008: 4.8 个月
2009: 6.4 个月
2010: 4.3 个月
2011: 3.2 个月
2012: 5.3 个月
2013~ 7.4个月

In the last 10+ years, not a single March was in Buyer's market (even 2009).
I expect MOI to creep up after March/April, making 2013 a year entirely in "Buyer's Market" territory.

I expect Greater Vancouver composite HPI benchmark price to continue declining YoY, while holding steady vs last month (before continuing its descent after April)


年份 成交 新上市 比例
year sales list sell/list 

2001	2315	3805	60.8%
2002	3392	5168	65.6%
2003	3304	4272	77.3%
2004	4371	5709	76.6%
2005	3938	5083	77.5%
2006	4033	5767	69.9%
2007	3582	5456	65.7%
2008	2997	5674	52.8%
2009	2265	4385	51.7%
2010	3137	7004	44.8%
2011	4080	6797	60.0%
2012	2874	5843	49.2%

2013 2150 4950 43.4% (est)

Vancouver & Richmond recent sale prices

VANCOUVER 2525 w king Edward ave 4 yrs 3727 sq/ft， lot 6222 sq/ft 现开价 2.78m (List) 成交价 2.45m (Sold) 估价 2.594m (Assessed) 1055 E 64 ave 原开价 749k 降价后 738k 成交价 700k 估价 703k 4290 Nautilus Close 原开价 1.79m 成交价 1.55m 估价 1.573m 6907 Tyne st 原开价 848k 成交价 810k 估价 878k RICHMOND 11060 Bamfield gt 2950 sq ft， lot 5312 sq ft 原开价 699k 降价后 649k 成交价 599k 估价 674k 5940 No 1 rd 5343 sq ft lot  上次交易开价 735k 原买价 758k (2011-1月) 原开价 699k 成交价 699k 估价 831k 10-8433 Bennett rd 11 yrs 2 bed 2 bath 1134 sq ft TH 原买价 423k (2010-9月) 原开价 450k 降价后 436k 成交价 405k 估价 427k 74-9339 Alberta  9 yrs 3 bed 2 bath 1180 sq ft TH 原买价 434k (2010-12月) 原开价 459k 降价后 439k 成交价 435k 估价 448k 225-13020 No 2 rd 9 yrs 2 bd 3 bath 1316 sq ft 原开价 469k 降价后 450k 成交价 440k 估价 456k 17-9671 Capella dr 3 bd 3 bath 1426 sq ft TH 原开价 495k 降价后 479k 成交价 455k 估价 474k Source: RET forum user "Ham"

Battle of Vancouver: SFH - Feb 2013

Feb 2013 SFH Battle Update:
- As predicted in January, Bear Forces successfully invaded Port Coquitlam and N Delta.
- Charged with triumphant spirit, Bear Forces also liberated West Vancouver, Port Moody, and Tsawwassen.
- The following Bull Territories are facing imminent defeat: Coquitlam & Cloverdale
- Coquitlam is where the Last Stand of REBGV Bull Forces takes place. The Bulls are down to the Very Last tank battalion. If they are defeated, the Bulls will be chased South of Fraser River, and possibly soon, South of the Border.

Jan 2012 SFH Battle Map:

Dec 2012 SFH Battle Map:

Nov 2012 SFH Battle Map:

Oct 2012 SFH Battle Map

* Areas with Positive Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bulls. 
* Areas with Negative Year-over-year HPI are controlled by Bears.
* Each 1% = One Tank.

REBGV SFH Sales # vs 2012 & 2011

SFH Sales # by region (Feb ’13 vs ’12 vs ’11)

Van West:
’13: 104
’12: 177 (-41%)
’11: 242 (-57%)

Van East:
’13: 77
’12: 125 (-38%)
’11: 165 (-53%)

Richmond:
’13: 89
’12: 119 (-25%)
’11: 251 (-65%)

West Van:
’13: 31
’12: 68 (-54%)
’11: 92 (-66%)

Burnaby:
’13: 60
’12: 105 (-43%)
’11: 105 (-43%)

Feb/13 SFH Sales Stats by Region

2月份 2013 vs 2012 大温独立屋 分区 数据: Richmond: HPI continues to trend down, now down 9% vs a year ago. Sales: -25% YoY Ratio: 36% vs 40% HPI YoY % Change : -9.0% (-6.3%,-6.5%,-4.2%,-4.0%,-4.2%,-3.7%) (last few months' YoY % change)　 　 Vancouver West: Sales down 41%, HPI down 9.2% vs a year ago. Sales: -41% YoY Ratio: 33% vs 55% HPI YoY % Change: -9.2% (-7.5%,-5.5%,-8.4%,-7.7%,-6.5%,-3.7%,0%) Vancouver East: What happened to the "Hot" Van East a year ago? Sales: -38% YoY Ratio: 35% vs 50% HPI YoY % Change: -2.7% (-0.5%,+0.2%,+0.5%,+1.9%,+3.2%,+4.8%,+5.5%) Burnaby:  Major sales decline of -42%.  Price erosion continues. Sales: -42% YoY Ratio: 31% vs 53% HPI YoY % Change: -3.1% (-2.3%,+0.4%,+1.5%,+2.4%,+4.2%,+5.2%) Coquitlam:  Major sales decline of -46%. Sales: -46% YoY Ratio: 37% vs 59% HPI YoY % Change: +1.4% (+2.4%,+2.9%,+2.6%,+2.8%,+3.6%,+3.7%,+4.3%)

Feb 2013 REBGV Official Stats Package

2013-02 大温房市官方数据 Feb REBGV Stats (PDF)

http://www.rebgv.org/news-statistics/home-sales-continue-below-average-pace

Historical Stats see here

CBS news: Chinese RE Bubble

"China's economy has become the second largest in the world, but its rapid growth may have created the largest housing bubble in history."

Major Chinese Developer "Wan Ke (万科)" CEO Mr. Wang Shi (王石) also spoke about the Chinese RE bubble.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxjwhk1ktNw&list=FLsN32BtMd0IoByjJRNF12cw&index=1